顾及基线先验信息的GPS模糊度快速解算

采用GPS相位观测值进行快速定位时,其解算模型严重病态,最小二乘解得的浮点模糊度精度差且相关性大,导致整周模糊度搜索空间过大,难以正确固定。本文提出一种顾及基线先验信息和模糊度线性约束的整数条件的GPS模糊度快速解算方法,先用顾及基线先验信息的正则化算法解得精度较高且相关性较小的浮点模糊度,以减小整周模糊度的搜索空间;再综合利用整周模糊度间的线性约束的整数条件和基线先验信息,进一步有效地减小模糊度搜索空间,提高搜索效率。算例表明:顾及基线先验信息的正则化算法有效地改善了模糊度浮点解,模糊度线性约束的整数条件有效地提高搜索效率和成功率。     

基于贝叶斯网络的朝鲜海峡大气能见度推理模型及实验

针对当前海上贸易航道通航风险评估工作中存在的能见度数据缺失等问题,提出基于贝叶斯网络的能见度数据推理技术。通过研究海域的确定、节点因子的选取、样本数据集的生成、推理模型的构建及参数学习和推理计算等流程,构建了基于贝叶斯网络技术的能见度数据推理模型,并以朝鲜海峡海域为例展开试验分析。结果表明:能见度具有年变化和年际变化特征规律,利用多年某月的数据作为训练样本推理该月的能见度等级具有较高的准确性,且相同样本形式下样本数据数量与推理结果准确性呈正相关。     

双黑洞系统的不同起源及其参数分布

双黑洞组成的近密双星系统并合是激光干涉仪引力波天文台等地基引力波探测器的主要探测对象。随着探测器灵敏度的提高,大量该类信号的探测将成为进一步研究黑洞物理的有效工具。但是目前对双黑洞系统的起源机制和内禀参数分布等物理问题的研究还不够深入,例如由引力波探测得到的黑洞质量分布与X射线双星观测的结果存在较大差异,还未有很好的理论模型可解释该结果。目前普遍认为双黑洞系统主要有两种起源:大质量双星演化机制和动力学起源机制。基于这两类起源的双黑洞系统在质量、自旋分布等方面存在差异。因此可在贝叶斯理论框架下,利用引力波信号携带的波源质量和自旋等信息,推断波源起源,计算不同起源的双黑洞系统所占比例,以及检验质量自旋等参数分布的差异。     

一种基于蓝牙室内指纹定位的贝叶斯改进算法

贝叶斯估计是重要的位置指纹定位算法,但传统的等值贝叶斯先验概率在动态定位中不适用。针对该问题,本文提出了一种基于贝叶斯指纹定位的改进算法。首先,借助陀螺仪获取的航向信息和高斯核函数模型建立概率投票算法,计算先验概率;然后,结合先验概率和信号强度计算待测点位于参考点上的后验概率;最后,选取概率最高的参考点,以概率为权重计算待测点的最或然值。以智能手机为试验对象,在规则路径试验中,改进算法的平均定位误差为1.15 m,定位误差小于2 m的概率为96.1%,不规则路径试验中,平均定位误差为0.50 m,定位误差在1 m的可信度为94.8%;并且改进算法对定位中位置跳变的现象有明显改善,具有较好的稳健性。     

变形监测数据预报的动态贝叶斯ELM方法

贝叶斯极限学习机(BELM)具有充分利用数据先验信息,可以自适应估计模型参数的特点。但在样本数量不断增加时,如果每次都对BELM重新训练将会降低计算效率。针对此问题,本文提出一种动态贝叶斯极限学习机(DBELM)方法以应用于变形监测数据实时预报。该方法以BELM训练的模型参数为初值,根据新增样本信息可对初始模型参数进行动态更新,并从理论上推导了相关计算公式。通过对仿真数据和实际变形数据进行详细分析表明:DBELM方法的预报精度要优于BELM、正则化极限学习机(RELM)、极限学习机(ELM)3种方法。特别是在长期持续预报过程中,其预报性能相对于其余3种方法优势明显。这充分表明了所提方法应用于变形监测数据预报领域具有可行性和有效性。     

基于最优插值和贝叶斯最大熵的海表温度融合方法研究

海表温度(sea surface temperature,SST)是影响全球气候的重要因素,在海洋科学研究中占有关键位置。论文基于MODIS红外、AMSR-2和HY-2A微波辐射计数据,分别利用最优插值和贝叶斯最大熵方法对SST数据进行融合,并用i Quam实测数据和Argo浮标数据对2015年SST融合数据进行检验。MODIS、AMSR-2、HY-2A辐射计SST的年平均空间覆盖率分别为15.0%,21.6%,22.0%,最优插值和贝叶斯最大熵融合SST产品的年平均空间覆盖率提高到98.6%和99.4%,融合产品空间覆盖率明显提高。与i Quam实测数据对比,最优插值和贝叶斯最大熵融合产品年平均偏差分别为0.07℃,0.04℃,均方根误差皆为0.78℃,其中3-7月最优插值融合产品的精度略优于贝叶斯最大熵融合产品,其它月份则相反;与Argo浮标数据对比,两种融合产品的均值偏差分别为0.06℃,0.01℃,均方根误差分别为0.77℃,0.75℃。整体上,贝叶斯最大熵融合产品的精度略优于最优插值融合产品,但计算成本较高。     

不确定海洋环境中基于贝叶斯理论的多声源定位算法

环境参数失配导致定位性能大幅度下降是匹配场定位所面临的难题之一。应用贝叶斯理论对环境聚焦,是当前解决该难题的研究热点。环境聚焦方法的实质是将未知环境参数和声源位置联合优化估计,当出现多个目标时,估计的参数会随着声源个数成倍增加,因此不得不利用有限的观测信息来实现众多参数的估计。本文采用最大似然比方法,获得信号源谱和误差项的最大似然估计,实现这些敏感性较弱参数的间接反演,有效降低了反演参数维数和定位算法复杂度。针对遗传算法的早熟和稳定性差的问题,改进了似然函数的经验表达式。将多维后验概率密度在参数起伏变化范围内积分,得到反演参数的一维边缘概率分布,求解最优值的同时进行反演结果的不确定性分析。本文仿真了位于相同距离、不同深度的两个声源,使用仿真实验验证了提出算法的有效性。     

A probabilistic model for ghost delay time estimation based on recording geometry

In order to deconvolve the ghost response from marine seismic data, an estimate of the ghost operator is required. Typically, this estimate is made using a model of in‐plane propagation, i.e., the ray path at the receiver falls in the vertical plane defined by the source and receiver locations. Unfortunately, this model breaks down when the source is in a crossline position relative to the receiver spread. In this situation, in‐plane signals can only exist in a small region of the signal cone. In this paper, we use Bayes' theory to model the posterior probability distribution functions for the vertical component of the ray vector given the known source–receiver azimuth and the measured inline component of the ray vector. This provides a model for the ghost delay time based on the acquisition geometry and the dip of the wave in the plane of the streamer. The model is fairly robust with regard to the prior assumptions and controlled by a single parameter that is related to the likelihood of in‐plane propagation. The expected values of the resulting distributions are consistent with the deterministic in‐plane model when in‐plane likelihood is high but valid everywhere in the signal cone. Relaxing the in‐plane likelihood to a reasonable degree radically simplifies the shape of the expected‐value surface, lending itself for use in deghosting algorithms. The model can also be extended to other plane‐wave processing problems such as interpolation.     

基于弹性参数加权统计的地震岩相预测方法

岩相信息能够反映储层岩性及流体特征,在地震储层预测中具有重要作用.常规方法主要利用与岩相信息关系密切的弹性参数定性或定量地转化为岩相信息.在实际应用中,弹性参数的获取主要基于叠前地震反演技术.而不同弹性参数的叠前地震反演精度间存在着差异,势必影响岩相的整体预测精度.本文提出对弹性参数进行加权统计来预测岩相.首先,基于贝叶斯理论,引入权重系数来调节弹性参数信息的采用量,构建出最终的目标反演函数;其次,考虑到勘探初期缺少明确的测井岩相信息,提出利用高斯混合分布函数来自动估算岩相先验概率;最后,根据输入弹性参数的取值,计算每类岩相对应的后验概率密度,将目标反演函数取最大后验概率密度时对应的岩相类别作为最终预测的岩相.新方法旨在减少弹性参数精度间的精度差异对岩相预测结果的影响,以期提高地震岩相的预测精度.模型与实际资料测试均表明该方法可行、有效且预测精度较高.     

Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for target-oriented and interval-oriented amplitude versus angle inversions with non-parametric priors and non-linear forward modellings

In geophysical inverse problems, the posterior model can be analytically assessed only in case of linear forward operators, Gaussian, Gaussian mixture, or generalized Gaussian prior models, continuous model properties, and Gaussian-distributed noise contaminating the observed data. For this reason, one of the major challenges of seismic inversion is to derive reliable uncertainty appraisals in cases of complex prior models, non-linear forward operators and mixed discrete-continuous model parameters. We present two amplitude versus angle inversion strategies for the joint estimation of elastic properties and litho-fluid facies from pre-stack seismic data in case of non-parametric mixture prior distributions and non-linear forward modellings. The first strategy is a two-dimensional target-oriented inversion that inverts the amplitude versus angle responses of the target reflections by adopting the single-interface full Zoeppritz equations. The second is an interval-oriented approach that inverts the pre-stack seismic responses along a given time interval using a one-dimensional convolutional forward modelling still based on the Zoeppritz equations. In both approaches, the model vector includes the facies sequence and the elastic properties of P-wave velocity, S-wave velocity and density. The distribution of the elastic properties at each common-mid-point location (for the target-oriented approach) or at each time-sample position (for the time-interval approach) is assumed to be multimodal with as many modes as the number of litho-fluid facies considered. In this context, an analytical expression of the posterior model is no more available. For this reason, we adopt a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to numerically evaluate the posterior uncertainties. With the aim of speeding up the convergence of the probabilistic sampling, we adopt a specific recipe that includes multiple chains, a parallel tempering strategy, a delayed rejection updating scheme and hybridizes the standard Metropolis–Hasting algorithm with the more advanced differential evolution Markov chain method. For the lack of available field seismic data, we validate the two implemented algorithms by inverting synthetic seismic data derived on the basis of realistic subsurface models and actual well log data. The two approaches are also benchmarked against two analytical inversion approaches that assume Gaussian-mixture-distributed elastic parameters. The final predictions and the convergence analysis of the two implemented methods proved that our approaches retrieve reliable estimations and accurate uncertainties quantifications with a reasonable computational effort.