A sequential sparse polynomial chaos expansion using Bayesian regression for geotechnical reliability estimations

Polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been widely employed to estimate failure probabilities in geotechnical engineering. However, PCEs suffer from two deficiencies: (a) PCE coefficients are solved by the least-square minimization method which easily causes overfitting issues; (b) building a high order PCE is often computationally expensive. In order to overcome the aforementioned drawbacks, the Bayesian regression technique is employed to evaluate PCE coefficients, which not only provides a sparse solution but also avoids overfitting. With the aid of the predictive means and variances given by Bayesian analysis, a learning function is proposed to sequentially select the most informative samples that are critical to build a PCE. This sequential learning scheme can highly enhance the computational efficiency of PCEs. Besides, importance sampling (IS) is incorporated into the sequential learning (SL)-PCEs to deal with geotechnical problems with small failure probabilities. The proposed method of SL-PCE-IS is applied to three illustrative examples, which shows that the improved PCE method is more effective and efficient than the common PCEs method, leading to accurate estimations of small failure probabilities using fewer training samples.     

Assessment of regional karstification degree and groundwater sensitivity to pollution using hydrograph analysis in the Velka Fatra Mountains, Slovakia

Hydrograph analyses of groundwater depletion process in the spring were used for estimation of karstification degree and groundwater sensitivity to pollution in the whole catchment area. Differences of individual depletion hydrographs enable assessment of the anticipated extent of absorption, attenuation and self-purification processes during the groundwater penetration through the rock environment between its infiltration and its outflow in the spring. The method was applied in the SW part of the Velka Fatra Mountains (Slovakia) “Tlsta” hydrogeological structure. In total, 209 individual recession curves from 20 gauged springs were analyzed. Depending on characteristic groundwater depletion hydrographs with independent sub-regimes, categories of groundwater sensitivity to pollution were defined. Finally, resulting sensitivities to pollution were linked to lithostratigraphical units in the area.     

Pattern,style and timing of British–Irish Ice Sheet advance and retreat over the last 45 000 years: evidence from NW Scotland and the adjacent continental shelf

Predicting the future response of ice sheets to climate warming and rising global sea level is important but difficult. This is especially so when fast-flowing glaciers or ice streams, buffered by ice shelves, are grounded on beds below sea level. What happens when these ice shelves are removed? And how do the ice stream and the surrounding ice sheet respond to the abruptly altered boundary conditions? To address these questions and others we present new geological, geomorphological, geophysical and geochronological data from the ice-stream-dominated NW sector of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS). The study area covers around 45 000 km² of NW Scotland and the surrounding continental shelf. Alongside seabed geomorphological mapping and Quaternary sediment analysis, we use a suite of over 100 new absolute ages (including cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages, optically stimulated luminescence ages and radiocarbon dates) collected from onshore and offshore, to build a sector-wide ice-sheet reconstruction combining all available evidence with Bayesian chronosequence modelling. Using this information we present a detailed assessment of ice-sheet advance/retreat history, and the glaciological connections between different areas of the NW BIIS sector, at different times during the last glacial cycle. The results show a highly dynamic, partly marine, partly terrestrial, ice-sheet sector undergoing large size variations in response to sub-millennial-scale climatic (Dansgaard–Oeschger) cycles over the last 45 000 years. Superimposed on these trends we identify internally driven instabilities, operating at higher frequency, conditioned by local topographic factors, tidewater dynamics and glaciological feedbacks during deglaciation. Specifically, our new evidence indicates extensive marine-terminating ice-sheet glaciation of the NW BIIS sector during Greenland Stadials 12 to 9 – prior to the main ‘Late Weichselian’ ice-sheet glaciation. After a period of restricted glaciation, in Greenland Interstadials 8 to 6, we find good evidence for rapid renewed ice-sheet build-up in NW Scotland, with the Minch ice-stream terminus reaching the continental shelf edge in Greenland Stadial 5, perhaps only briefly. Deglaciation of the NW sector took place in numerous stages. Several grounding-zone wedges and moraines on the mid- and inner continental shelf attest to significant stabilizations of the ice-sheet grounding line, or ice margin, during overall retreat in Greenland Stadials 3 and 2, and to the development of ice shelves. NW Lewis was the first substantial present-day land area to deglaciate, in the first half of Greenland Stadial 3 at a time of globally reduced sea-level c. 26 kabp , followed by Cape Wrath at c. 24 kabp. The topographic confinement of the Minch straits probably promoted ice-shelf development in early Greenland Stadial 2, providing the ice stream with additional support and buffering it somewhat from external drivers. However, c. 20–19 kabp , as the grounding-line migrated into shoreward deepening water, coinciding with a marked change in marine geology and bed strength, the ice stream became unstable. We find that, once underway, grounding-line retreat proceeded in an uninterrupted fashion with the rapid loss of fronting ice shelves – first in the west, then the east troughs – before eventual glacier stabilization at fjord mouths in NW Scotland by ~17 kabp. Around the same time, ~19–17 kabp , ice-sheet lobes readvanced into the East Minch – possibly a glaciological response to the marine-instability-triggered loss of adjacent ice stream (and/or ice shelf) support in the Minch trough. An independent ice cap on Lewis also experienced margin oscillations during mid-Greenland Stadial 2, with an ice-accumulation centre in West Lewis existing into the latter part of Heinrich Stadial 1. Final ice-sheet deglaciation of NW mainland Scotland was punctuated by at least one other coherent readvance at c. 15.5 kabp , before significant ice-mass losses thereafter. At the glacial termination, c. 14.5 kabp , glaciers fed outwash sediment to now-abandoned coastal deltas in NW mainland Scotland around the time of global Meltwater Pulse 1A. Overall, this work on the BIIS NW sector reconstructs a highly dynamic ice-sheet oscillating in extent and volume for much of the last 45 000 years. Periods of expansive ice-sheet glaciation dominated by ice-streaming were interspersed with periods of much more restricted ice-cap or tidewater/fjordic glaciation. Finally, this work indicates that the role of ice streams in ice-sheet evolution is complex but mechanistically important throughout the lifetime of an ice sheet – with ice streams contributing to the regulation of ice-sheet health but also to the acceleration of ice-sheet demise via marine ice-sheet instabilities.     

晋祠泉断流与地下水资源保护关系

通过对晋祠泉域岩溶地下水水文地质条件的分析,阐述了晋泉形成机理和断流原因,认为晋泉断流是多种因素的综合效应。说明地下水资源保护是一项系统工程,应采取统一的、科学的、多层次的全面管理,才能有效地保护有限的地下水资源,唤醒人们在进行经济建设的同时,要注意保护我们赖以生存的地球环境。     

Smoothing and Change Point Detection for Gamma Ray Count Data

Gamma ray detectors are used to measure the natural radioactivity of rocks. For a number of boreholes drilled at a site the gamma ray detector is lowered into each borehole and counts of gamma ray emissions at different depths are recorded as the instrument is gradually raised to ground level. The profile of gamma counts can be informative about the geology at each location. The raw count data are highly variable, and in this paper we describe the use of adaptive smoothing techniques and change point models in order to identify changes in the geology based on the gamma logs. We formulate all our models for the data in the framework of the class of generalized linear models, and describe computational methods for Bayesian inference and model selection for generalized linear models that improve on existing techniques. Application is made to gamma ray data from the Castelreagh Waste Management Centre which served as a hazardous waste disposal facility for the Sydney region between March 1974 and August 1998. Understanding the geological structure of this site is important for further modelling the transport of pollutants beneath the waste disposal area.     

Updated normalized load-settlement model for full-scale footings on granular soils

The design of spread footings on granular soils is generally governed by serviceability requirements. Recent studies have utilized databases of load tests to investigate the use of normalized load-settlement curves to model the behavior of footings on sands. A major limitation of available databases is that they are based primarily on data from plate load tests or footings that have an equivalent width smaller than 1.0 m. There is a need to confirm the applicability of these curves to footings of practical scale. The main objective of this paper is to update available normalized load-settlement curves using point measurements of settlement and load from full-scale footings. Bayesian techniques are employed in the updating process. Results indicate that the updated normalized load-settlement relationship is slightly more conservative but less uncertain than the current relationship. Results from an illustrative example involving serviceability limit state reliability analyses using footings with widths ranging from 1.5 to 3.0 m indicated that the updated relationship resulted in a slightly higher reliability level compared to the prior relationship.     

Joint states of information from different probabilistic geo-profile reconstruction methods

Development of technologies for site characterization has grown at a faster pace compared to the development of decision-making methods required for the assimilation of inferences they generate. In the case of geophysical surveying, such dephase adds to the dependency on the use of expert's judgment in the interpretation of geophysical mappings. A systematic assimilation of this type of geo-surveying evidence is required, in particular for the integration of spatial geomorphological information (i.e., stratigraphy), characterized from different geophysical methods. This paper presents a methodology to address this challenge by the use of a probabilistic approach. A set of synthetic geophysical mappings are used to illustrate the applicability of the proposed methodology and its potential extrapolation to other scientific imaging disciplines.     

应用GPS数据与重力数据确定大地水准面

作为GPS/重力边值问题理论及方法的应用,在对GPS/重力方法确定(似)大地水准面的原理进行简要介绍与分析的基础上,利用收集到的N区的600个GPS/重力数据和48个高精度GPS水准数据,计算出该区域的(似)大地水准面。通过拟合法和系统差直接改正法进行的精度分析表明,应用GPS/重力数据结合水准方法确定的该地区(似)大地水准面的精度达到厘米级精度。     

改进的贝叶斯迭代反演方法及其在白云岩致密储层识别的应用

由于低孔隙度和低渗透率的白云岩致密油储集层的纵波阻抗与其围岩差异非常小,利用叠后反演技术难以有效预测储层,而可以提取丰富弹性信息的叠前反演是解决此问题的有效手段,但是由于噪声等问题,叠前反演方程有较强的不适定性,笔者在贝叶斯框架下引入了改进的多变量柯西分布和改进的低频约束因子,重新推导了反演方程,获得了新的目标函数,有效地减少了反演的不适定性,从而提高了反演的稳定性,并结合迭代的思想来不断更新反演求解过程中的背景纵横波速度比值,从而增加了反演结果的精度。模型数据测试和实际资料应用都证明了该方法的稳定性和适用性。统计表明,利用提出的反演方法,目的层段内优质储层厚度预测吻合率高达89.75%。因此,此方法对类似硅质致密储层的勘探有重要的借鉴意义。     

Neoproterozoic to Early Cambrian history of an active plate margin in the Teplá–Barrandian unit—a correlation of U–Pb isotopic-dilution-TIMS ages (Bohemia, Czech Republic)

The Teplá–Barrandian unit (TBU) of the Bohemian Massif shared a common geological history throughout the Neoproterozoic and Cambrian with the Avalonian–Cadomian terranes. The Neoproterozoic evolution of an active plate margin in the Teplá–Barrandian is similar to Avalonian rocks in Newfoundland, whereas the Cambrian transtension and related calc-alkaline plutons are reminiscent of the Cadomian Ossa–Morena Zone and the Armorican Massif in western Europe. The Neoproterozoic evolution of the Teplá–Barrandian unit fits well with that of the Lausitz area (Saxothuringian unit), but is significantly distinct from the history of the Moravo–Silesian unit.The oldest volcanic activity in the Bohemian Massif is dated at 609+17/−19 Ma (U–Pb upper intercept). Subduction-related volcanic rocks have been dated from 585±7 to 568±3 Ma (lower intercept, rhyolite boulders), which pre-dates the age of sedimentation of the Cadomian flysch ( t chovice Group). Accretion, uplift and erosion of the volcanic arc is documented by the Neoproterozoic Dob í conglomerate of the upper part of the flysch. The intrusion age of 541+7/−8 Ma from the Zgorzelec granodiorite is interpreted as a minimum age of the Neoproterozoic sequence. The Neoproterozoic crust was tilted and subsequently early Cambrian intrusions dated at 522±2 Ma (T ovice granite), 524±3 Ma (V epadly granodiorite), 523±3 Ma (Smr ovice tonalite), 523±1 Ma (Smr ovice gabbro) and 524±0.8 Ma (Orlovice gabbro) were emplaced into transtensive shear zones.