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81.
Response of runoff to climate change in the area of runoff yield in upstream Shiyang River Basin,Northwest China: A case study of the Xiying River
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The objective of this study was to analyze the response of runoff in the area of runoff yield of the upstream Shiyang River basin to climate change and to promote sustainable development of regional water resources and ecological environment. As the biggest tributary of the Shiyang River, Xiying River is the only hydrological station (Jiutiaoling) that has provincial natural river and can achieve long time series monitoring data in the basin. The data obtained from this station is representative of natural conditions because it has little human activites. This study built a regression model through identifying the characteristics of runoff and climate change by using Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test, cumulative anomaly, and correlation analysis. The results show that the average annual runoff is 320.6 million m3/a with the coefficient of variation of 0.18 and shows slightly decrease during 1956–2020. It has a significant positive correlation the average annual precipitation (P<0.01). Runoff is sensitive to climate change, and the climate has becoming warm and wet and annual runoff has entering wet period from 2003. Compared to the earlier period (1955–2000), the increases of average annual temperature, precipitation and runoff in recent two decades were 15%, 9.3%, and 7.8%, respectively. Runoff in the Shiyang River is affected by temperature and precipitation among climate factors, and the simulation results of the runoff-climate response model (R = 0.0052P ? 0.1589T + 2.373) indicate that higher temperature leads to a weakening of the ecological regulation of surface runoff in the flow-producing area. 相似文献
82.
Deep excavations particularly in deep deposits of soft clay can cause excessive ground movements and result in damage to adjacent buildings. Extensive plane strain finite element analyses considering the small strain effect have been carried out to examine the wall deflections for excavations in soft clay deposits supported by retaining walls and bracing. The excavation geometry, soil strength and stiffness properties, and the wall stiffness were varied to study the wall deflection behavior. Based on these results, a simple Polynomial Regression (PR) model was developed for estimating the maximum wall deflection. Wall deflections computed by this method compare favorably with a number of field and published records. 相似文献
83.
科技名词中文译名标准化和规范化工作是推动我国科技进步和科学知识传播的重要基础。新的科学概念和技术名词层出不穷,如何及时发现并确定新生术语的中文译名是一项普遍的社会需求。介绍了一套全新的天文学英语新词自动提取系统。该系统综合使用脚本过滤、术语识别、正则表达匹配等多种方法,能够自动追踪Ar Xiv论文数据库的更新,分析天文学论文的内容,生成推荐术语列表,从而将学科专家从繁重的科技新词收集整理工作中解放出来,把有限的精力集中到更能体现专业素养的新词审定工作当中。这个系统将为推动天文学等基础学科的新词收集,乃至学科标准化等工作发挥积极作用。 相似文献
84.
Data of the hydrolysis of adenosine 5'-triphosphate have been re-evaluated using a computer program thatnumerically integrates the differential rate equations within a routine that optimizes rate coefficients givena suitable model and concentration versus time data. The model is tested by calculation of Hamilton R-values, the Fisher F-statistic, a sensitivity analysis,the standard errors on the rate coefficients and by constructing contour maps of the objective functionversus two rate coefficients. An optimization using only phosphate concentration data cannot distinguish between a model in whichadenosine 5'-monophosphate is formed predominantly directly with a molecule of pyrophosphate, andone in which it is formed via adenosine 5'-diphosphate. A more accurate set of rate coefficients iscalculated from existing data and the relative importance of the two paths determined. 相似文献
85.
The problem of automatic detection of seismic waves by large telemetered seismic networks such as the Mexican Continental Aperture Seismic Network (RESMAC), is extended here to include determination of seismic first-arrival and S-phase-arrival times. A short general outline of the detection problem background and a small introduction to the autoregressive model (AR) concept are presented. Several automatic detection algorithms were implemented and compared with a newly developed autoregressive algorithm. Careful consideration of the advantages and disadvantages of each method determined that a mixed detection scheme is optimal and suitable for RESMAC. A few examples are shown that illustrate the relative performances of the methods tried here. The proposed detection scheme has the following characteristics: (a) First-arrival detection, based on a simple (average of squared input) characteristic function, and a trigger criterion that uses as a distortion measure the long-average-to-short-average ratio of the characteristic function, checked using a duration criterion; (b) use of two threshold values, one for triggering, and another for beginning the backward search for the phase arrival time; (c) use of the autoregressive model (AR) method, with the Itakura-Saito distortion measure, for S-phase detection, checked using both duration and amplitude criteria; and (d) characterization of the reliability of the determinations for their subsequent use in automatic location programs, alarms, etc. The automatic detection scheme has proved effective. 相似文献
86.
Groundwater models need to account for detailed but generally unknown spatial variability (heterogeneity) of the hydrogeologic model inputs. To address this problem we replace the large, m-dimensional stochastic vector β that reflects both small and large scales of heterogeneity in the inputs by a lumped or smoothed m-dimensional approximation γθ∗, where γ is an interpolation matrix and θ∗ is a stochastic vector of parameters. Vector θ∗ has small enough dimension to allow its estimation with the available data. The consequence of the replacement is that model function f(γθ∗) written in terms of the approximate inputs is in error with respect to the same model function written in terms of β, f(β), which is assumed to be nearly exact. The difference f(β) − f(γθ∗), termed model error, is spatially correlated, generates prediction biases, and causes standard confidence and prediction intervals to be too small. Model error is accounted for in the weighted nonlinear regression methodology developed to estimate θ∗ and assess model uncertainties by incorporating the second-moment matrix of the model errors into the weight matrix. Techniques developed by statisticians to analyze classical nonlinear regression methods are extended to analyze the revised method. The analysis develops analytical expressions for bias terms reflecting the interaction of model nonlinearity and model error, for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for this interaction, and for correction factors needed to adjust the sizes of confidence and prediction intervals for possible use of a diagonal weight matrix in place of the correct one. If terms expressing the degree of intrinsic nonlinearity for f(β) and f(γθ∗) are small, then most of the biases are small and the correction factors are reduced in magnitude. Biases, correction factors, and confidence and prediction intervals were obtained for a test problem for which model error is large to test robustness of the methodology. Numerical results conform with the theoretical analysis. 相似文献
87.
88.
89.
陕西飞机人工增雨效果统计检验方法研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
应用针对陕西省飞机人工增雨作业特点设计的区域回归统计方案,对2002、2003、2006年春、秋季飞机增雨分别进行效果分析,结果表明:春季11架次08?20时平均增雨量1.6 mm,作业后3 h平均增雨量0.3 mm;秋季13架次08?20时平均增雨量3.6 mm,作业后3 h平均增雨量1.3 mm;通过成对试验符号秩和检验,显著性水平均优于5%,表明作业效果显著;分析结果说明了统计方案的可行性。基于该区域回归统计方案开发的飞机增雨效果评估系统,实现对增雨效果的及时、客观、定量评估。 相似文献
90.
基于分类回归树分析的遥感影像土地利用/覆被分类研究 总被引:50,自引:1,他引:50
以专家知识和经验为基础,综合影像光谱信息和其他辅助信息进行分类的基于知识的遥感影像解译方法,是提高遥感影像分类精度,实现自动解译的有效途径之一。然而,知识的获取一直是其得以广泛应用的“瓶颈”问题。以江苏省江宁试验区土地利用/覆被分类为例,利用分类回归树分析(CART)从训练样本数据集中发现分类规则,集成遥感影像的光谱特征、纹理特征和空间分布特征进行分类实验,并与传统的监督分类和逻辑通道分类方法进行比较。结果表明,基于CART的分类方法的精度基本在80%以上,与另两种方法相比,有了较大的提高,而且该算法复杂性低,效率高。由此说明,利用CART算法构建决策树获取的分类规则是合理的。它可以快速、有效地获取大量分类规则,是促进基于知识的遥感影像分类方法在土地利用/覆被分类中广泛应用的一项有效手段。 相似文献