A Physical and Numerical Investigation on the Stability of Shallow Tunnels in Strain Softening Media

Summary The behaviour up to failure of shallow underground openings is discussed on the basis of some laboratory, small-scale model tests and of finite element simulation. The experimental results are first illustrated. They were obtained from two-dimensional (plane strain) and three-dimensional tunnel models tested under standard gravity conditions. Then, the phenomenon of strain localisation that characterizes the medium surrounding the model tunnels is discussed, recalling two alternative approaches for its numerical interpretation. On this basis, a finite element procedure for strain softening analyses is outlined and applied to the simulation of the tests in both two- and three-dimensional conditions. The comparison between experimental and numerical results leads to some conclusions on the influence of strain localisation on the overall behaviour of shallow tunnels and on the stability of their headings.     

Exhumation of high-pressure rocks of the Kokchetav massif: facts and models

The exhumation of ultrahigh-pressure (UHP) metamorphic units from depths more than 100-120 km is one of the most intriguing questions in modern petrology and geodynamics. We use the diamondiferous Kumdy-Kol domain in the Kokchetav Massif to show that exhumation models should take into consideration initially high uplift velocities (from 20 down to 6 cm/year) and the absence of the deformation of UHP assemblages. The high rate of exhumation are indicated by ion microprobe (SHRIMP) dating of zircons from diamondiferous rocks and supported by the low degree of nitrogen aggregation in metamorphic diamonds.Diamondiferous rocks in the Kumdy-Kol domain occur as steeply dipping (60°-80°) thin slices (few hundred metres) within granite-gneiss. Using geological, petrological and isotopic-geochemical data, we show that partial melting of diamondiferous metamorphic rocks occurred; a very important factor which has not been taken into account in previous models.Deformation of diamondiferous rocks at Kumdy-Kol is insignificant; diamond inclusions in garnet are often intergrown with mica crystals carrying no traces of deformation. All these facts could be explained by partial melting of metapelites and granitic rocks in the Kumdy-Kol domain. The presence of melt is responsible for an essential reduction of viscosity and a density difference (Δρ) between crustal rocks and mantle material and reduced friction between the upwelling crustal block, the subducting and overriding plates. Besides Δρ, the exhumation rate seems to depend on internal pressure in the subducting continental crustal block which can be regarded as a viscous layer between subducting continental lithosphere and surrounding mantle.We construct different models for the three stages of exhumation: a model similar to “corner flow” for the first superfast exhumation stage, an intermediate stage of extension (most important from structural point of view) and a very low rate of exhumation in final diapir+erosional uplift.     

基于等高线的DEM生成算法研究和实现

数字高程模型是近年来发展起来的为地理信息系统提供空间分析和辅助决策的数据基础。随着科学技术特别是计算机技术的迅速发展，DEM在数据获取方法、数据存储和数据处理速度等方面已经取得突破性进展。通过系统介绍生成DTM过程中等高线的离散化方法，DELAUNAY三角网的特性和基于等高线数据的TIN的建立，以及对产生的问题的一些解决方法。     

Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty

Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can be implemented.     

IPCC第六次气候变化评估中的气候约束预估方法

得益于第五次评估报告（AR5）以来约束预估研究的迅速发展,观测约束成为政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第一工作组（WGI）第六次评估报告（AR6）提升对未来预估约束的证据链中的重要一环。IPCC第一工作组第六次评估报告首次利用包括根据历史模拟温度升高幅度得到的观测约束、多模式预估以及第六次评估报告中更新的气候敏感度在内的多条证据链来约束全球地表温度未来变化的预估,减小了多模式预估的不确定性。文中回顾并介绍了IPCC第一工作组第六次评估报告中涉及的几种主要观测约束方法（多模式加权方法、基于归因结论的约束方法（ASK方法）、萌现约束方法）及其应用情况。在IPCC第一工作组第六次评估报告以及很多针对不同区域不同变量的预估研究中,观测约束方法均显示出了订正模式误差、改善模式预估的潜力。相比而言,目前中国在观测约束预估方面的研究还不多,亟待加强观测约束方法研究以及在中国区域气候变化预估中的应用,为中国应对气候变化的政策制定和适应规划提供更丰富、不确定性更小的未来气候信息。      

GRAPES_GFS模式全球降水预报的主要偏差特征

利用2017年1、4、7、10月"全球降水观测(global precipitation measurement,GPM)计划"每日08时(北京时)的24 h累计降水量和逐30 min降水量观测产品,从降水量和频率等角度,对同期GRAPES全球模式(GRAPES_GFS)第1(D1)、3(D3)、5天(D5)的全球降水...     

房产价格时空演变分析

以时空数据模型及房产价格为研究对象,在同时满足基于特征和事件的空间时态数据模型基础上,结合数据库、统计分析、数据挖掘等技术创建基于位置(栅格)和对象(矢量)相结合的时空数据模型,实现了对马鞍山市房产价格的查询和管理.     

喜马拉雅山脉的地质地貌特征:来自SRTM数字高程模型和降水量数据的约束

利用GTOPO30和SRTM3数字高程(DEM)数据,提取了喜马拉雅山脉(造山带)的数字高程模型并对其进行了地质地貌的初步分析。从SRTM3数字高程数据提取出坡度数据,初步分析了喜马拉雅山脉坡度和高程的特征。数字高程和坡度图清楚地展现了喜马拉雅大型断裂带(构造边界)的空间分布特征。分析了中国气象局下属的西藏、青海、四川和云南4省区气象观测台站55年来的年平均降水量观测数据、喜马拉雅山脉南坡的年平均降水量数据、喜马拉雅DEM和裂变径迹数据,发现喜马拉雅山脉从东至西,年平均降水量逐渐减少,地形起伏逐渐变小,而高程渐次升高,与此同时剥蚀速率降低;从北至南,年平均降水量逐渐增加,地形起伏增大,高程快速降低,而剥蚀速率则急剧升高。这充分说明了喜马拉雅年平均降水量大的地区,地表剥蚀作用相对较强,年平均降水量小的地区,地表剥蚀作用则较弱,即:在喜马拉雅地区,长周期的地表剥蚀过程(可长达数个百万年时间尺度)和短周期(仅仅50年)的降水量观测是耦合的。     

基于机理的合成孔径雷达系统成像误差理论分析

目前在遥感和GIS中,关于误差和不确定性研究的主要方法有两种: 概率统计和机理模拟。本文论述了二者的特点,详细讨论了影响合成孔径雷达成像的诸多因素,提出利用机理的方法分析SAR系统成像误差。本方法是从合成孔径雷达成像机理的研究出发,利用控制论的观点来解释、分析影响合成孔径雷达成像的诸多误差因素并建立误差传播模型。这不仅对研制合成孔径雷达的设计具有指导意义,而且对遥感数据的质量控制也有重要意义。     

两系法杂交稻安全制种的水热传输模型及其应用

针对两系杂交稻制种易遇夏季低温危害制种纯度的技术瓶颈,为正确采用以水调温预防技术,本文依据热量平衡原理,建立了制种稻田的水热传输多层模型。经实测资料检验,模型稳定、可靠。对模型输入不同灌水参数的计算结果表明:20 cm气温(不育系敏感期的幼穗高度)随着净辐射通量、灌水深度、进水及出水口水温的升高而增加,增温幅度受这些因子的综合影响。要合理的利用水资源必须考虑多种因子的相互作用。对育性的实测表明,以水调温对防御夏季低温,提高制种纯度效果良好。