热带太平洋地区SSTA和风应力场的海气耦合模态

按国家气象局“八五”攻关力专家组提出的有关近海热带气候强度突变的标准，对１９７０－１９９１年在我国的近海发生强度突为的热带气旋进行了分类统计，发现如下气候特征：平均每年有８－９个热带气旋移到我国近海时发生强度突变，其中突然减弱的居多，占总个数的７９．６％，突然增强的只占总个数的２０．４％，突然增强只发和天５－１０月，而突然减弱到５－１２月均可发生；突然增强主要出现在浙闽沿海、南海中部，珠江口外西侧     

中国西北C-3植物的碳同位素组成与年降雨量关系初探

 本文对不同年降雨量环境下生长的藜、独行菜、魁蓟和平车前这4种常见C-3植物的δ¹³C进行了分析,发现这4种C-3植物的δ¹³C组成都表现出随年降雨量减少而变重的趋势,其中藜和独行菜的碳同位素组成对降水变化的响应相对要较其它2种植物强烈得多。藜、独行菜和魁蓟的δ¹³C组成与年降雨量有显著的线性关系,平车前碳同位素组成与年降雨量没有显著的相关性,表明藜、独行菜和魁蓟的δ¹³C组成可作为年降雨量的替代性指标,平车前的δ¹³C组成不能作为年降水的替代性指标。     

On the Bayesian analysis of the earthquake hazard in the North-East Indian peninsula

The Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences has been used to estimate the seismic hazard in 12 seismogenic zones of the North-East Indian peninsula. The Bayesian approach has been used very efficiently to combine the prior information on seismicity obtained from geological data with historical observations in many seismogenic zones of the world. The basic parameters to obtain the prior estimate of seismicity are the seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate and magnitude. These estimates are then updated in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical evaluations of seismicity associated with each zone. From the Bayesian analysis of extreme earthquake occurrences for North-East Indian peninsula, it is found that for T = 5 years, the probability of occurrences of magnitude (M _w = 5.0–5.5) is greater than 0.9 for all zones. For M _w = 6.0, four zones namely Z1 (Central Himalayas), Z5 (Indo-Burma border), Z7 (Burmese arc) and Z8 (Burma region) exhibit high probabilities. Lower probability is shown by some zones namely␣Z4, Z12, and rest of the zones Z2, Z3, Z6, Z9, Z10 and Z11 show moderate probabilities.     

广州单站要素及特征曲线显示系统简介

单站气象要素剖面图是日常预报业务中经常使用的工具之一。计算机绘制剖面图可做到快捷、美观和自动化，且能克服纸质剖面图存储中的诸多弊端，适宜长期保存。广州市单站要素及特征曲线显示系统除把纸绘剖面图的内容搬到屏幕外，还增加了一些物理量。系统可实时显示广州五山站、四个县级市、清远探空站、衡山站的基本资料，显示气压、温度、湿度等观测要素或清运探空站物理量的时间演变曲线。系统用VB5.0编写，目前已在业务上使用，成为广州市短期预报的一个参考工具。     

Preparation and Certification of High-Grade Gold Ore Reference Materials (GAu 19-22)

Two types of gold deposit with both good homogeneity and a high-grade of gold were selected to prepare four gold ore reference materials (GAu-19,GAu-20,GAu-21 and GAu-22) by the Institute of Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration (IGGE),China.Seven laboratories participated in the certification programme. Volumetric methods for GAu19-21 and atomic absorption spectrometry for GAu-22 were used for the homogeneity testing,the coefficient of variation being found to be less than 3%.After sample digestion and preconcentration,the samples were analysed by flame atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS),colorimetry,neutron activation analysis (NAA)and volumetric analysis. The certified values for the gold concentration in GAu19-22 are 18.3 μg g -1, 32.3 μg g -1, 53.0 μg g -1 and 5.72 μg g -1,respectively.     

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook is carried out by modelling peaks over a high threshold. The aims are to illustrate recently developed statistical techniques and to report on interesting features of the flow of the brook over a 58-year period. Peak flows are found to show marked seasonal variation and a downward trend. Then-year return level is estimated for various values ofn, and the reliability of the estimates is assessed.     

震级特征图特点与a,b值关系

本文主要研究了a、b值的变化对震级特征图的影响。当a、b值的变化幅度不太大时,仍然可从震级特征图上识别出最小均匀震级等震级阈值;当a、b值的变化达到相当的幅度后,震级阈值点变模糊了。     

TYPHOON ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC IN RELATION WITH EL NINO AND LA NINA EVENTS

Statistic and typical-year composition methods are used to study the northwest Pacific typhoon activities in relation with the EI Niño and La Niña events. The result indicates that the typhoon tends to be inactive in the EI Niño years and active in the La Niña years and it is also dependent on the onset and ending time and intensity of the events and areas of genesis of typhoons. With statistic features of the frequency of typhoon activity in the EI Niño and La Niña years and the time-lag correlation between the frequency and sea surface temperature(SST), useful information is provided for the prediction of typhoon occurrence. In addition, the singular values disassemble(SVD)method is applied to study the correlation between the geopotential field and SST field. The result shows that the air-sea coupling in the EI Niño years is unfavorable for the typhoon to develop. Which take place with a smaller number. Opposite situations are found with the La Niña years.