杠杆点评估及设计空间抗差

本分析了杠杆点的几何含义和统计特征,从杠杆点的保差性,矩阵的摄动和参数估值可靠性的观点出发讨论了杠杆点的不利和有利的两个方面,提出了一个全面的设计空间抗差方案。     

短周期仪器记录在远震分析中的应用

地震泼由多种频率成份组成,在其传播过程中。由于地球介质的滤波作用,随着传播距离的增大。高频成份逐渐被衰减。周期越大的成份传播越远。因此,在地震观测上,不同频带的地震仪用于观测不同震中距范围的地震,使仪器较好地响应,就我国台网而言,短周期仪用于地方震、近震的监测,中长周期仪和长周期仪用于远震,极远震的监测,其中长周期仪偏重于记录极远震。但作者在实际分析工作中注意到,短周期仪的记录应用于远震,极远震的分析,显示出独特的作用,充分挖掘和利用短仪资料,将会更加丰富远震、极远震的震相资料。本文以高台地震台的资料为依据,从震中距和震级角度,与中长仪和长仪作比较,对短仪记录远震、极远震的震相及特征作了统计分析与初步探讨,并对新疆地区“影区”地震S波的记录、日本地区地震_PPcP等震相的出现提出了现象的存在,给出了相应的观测结果,以待步一步研究。     

大理州2005年初夏干旱成因探析

大理州2005年初夏出现了严重干旱气象事件.从500pHa高空环流特征、500pHa距平场特征、西太平洋副高特征量及北太平洋中低纬海温距平场、OLR距平场对这次干旱的成因进行了分析,分析结果表明：2005年初夏（4月1日～6月10日）降水异常偏少气温明显偏高是发生干旱的主要原因,高空大气环流异常、西太平洋副高持续偏强偏西、冷空气活动偏北是导致干旱的直接原因;孟加拉湾南部4月OLR场呈明显正距平,抑制低值系统的发展和东北移影响云南,是影响2005年大理初夏干旱重要原因;北太平洋中低纬海温特征与大理州初夏干旱有一定的遥相关性.     

近50 a渭河流域洪水成因分析及防治对策

 通过对近50 a渭河流域洪水的年际变化、月际变化和潼关高程变化的综合分析得出，造成该流域洪水灾害的原因有降水量年内分配不均和年际变化大，滩面淤积加重，支流河口淤塞以及河势、流态的恶化等。针对这些原因，根据渭河流域洪水灾害的特点，提出了相应的防治措施，即降低下游高程，减少河道的淤积，增大河道泄洪能力；利用水库进行调水调沙，引进客水冲刷渭河下游；防洪工程要除险加固，提高防洪标准与抗洪能力；恢复林草植被，遏止水土流失，从源头上控制泥沙入河等。     

Mantle plumes from top to bottom

Hotspots include midplate features like Hawaii and on-axis features like Iceland. Mantle plumes are a well-posed hypothesis for their formation. Starting plume heads provide an explanation of brief episodes of flood basalts, mafic intrusions, and radial dike swarms. Yet the essence of the hypothesis hides deep in the mantle. Tests independent of surface geology and geochemistry to date have been at best tantalizing. It is productive to bare the current ignorance, rather than to dump the plume hypothesis. One finds potentially fruitful lines of inquiry using simple dynamics and observations. Ancient lithospheric xenoliths may reveal heating by plumes and subsequent thermal equilibration in the past. The effect at the base of the chemical layer is modest 50-100 K for transient heating by plume heads. Thinning of nonbuoyant platform lithosphere is readily observed but not directly attributable to plumes. The plume history in Antarctica is ill constrained because of poor geological exposure. This locality provides a worst case on what is known about surface evidence of hotspots. Direct detection of plume tail conduits in the mid-mantle is now at the edge of seismic resolution. Seismology does not provide adequate resolution of the deep mantle. We do not know the extent of a chemically dense dregs layer or whether superplume regions are cooler or hotter than an adiabat in equilibrium with the asthenosphere. Overall, mid-mantle seismology is most likely to give definitive results as plume conduits are the guts of the dynamic hypothesis. Finding them would bring unresolved deep and shallow processes into place.     

High-resolution sedimentary record of lead in the coastal mud of the East China Sea in the past one hundred and fifty years

In the East China Sea （ECS）, there are some mud areas, including the south coastal mud area, the north coastal mud area, and the mud area to the southwest of Cheju Island. X-ray fluorescence （XRF） techniques and Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry （TIMS） were used to study the high-resolution sedimentary record of Pb concentrations and Pb stable isotopic compositions in the past one hundred and fifty years in the coastal mud of the ECS. Pb concentrations of a ^210Pb dating S5 core in the study area have increased rapidly since 1980, and reached the maximal value with 65.08 μg/g in 2000, corresponding to the fast economic development of China since the implementation of the ＂Reform and Open Policy＂ in 1978; ^206Pb/^207Pb ratios generally had stabilized at 1.195 from 1860 to 1966, and decreased gradually from 1966 to 2000, indicating that the anthropogenic source Pb contribution to the ECS has increased gradually since 1966, especially since 1980. Pb concentrations decreased distinctly from 2000 to 2003 and ^206Pb/^207Pb ratios increased from 2001 to 2003, corresponding closely to the ban of lead gasoline from 2000 in China. From 1950 to 2003, there occurred four distinct decrease events of ^206Pb/^207Pb, possibly responding to the Changjiang River （Yangtze River） catastrophic floods in 1998, 1991, 1981 and 1954; from 1860 to 1966, there were two decrease periods of ^206Pb/^207Pb, which may respond to the catastrophic floods of Changjiang River in 1931 and 1935, and 1870. As a result of the erosion and drowning by the catastrophic floods, the anthropogenic lead accumulated in soil and water environments over a long period of time was brought into the Changjiang River, then part of them was finally transported into the ECS, which leads to changes in Pb stable isotopic composition.     

An investigation of upper mantle heterogeneity beneath the Archaean and Proterozoic crust of western Canada from Lithoprobe controlled-source seismic experiments

Observations of upper mantle reflectivity at numerous locations around the world have been linked to the presence of a heterogeneous distribution of rock types within a broad layer of the upper mantle. This phenomenon is observed in wide-angle reflection data from Lithoprobe's Alberta Basement Transect [the SAREX and Deep Probe experiments of 1995] and Trans-Hudson Orogen Transect [the THoRE experiment of 1993]. SAREX and Deep Probe image the Archaean lithosphere of the Hearne and Wyoming Provinces, whereas THoRE images the Archaean and Proterozoic lithosphere of the Trans-Hudson Orogen and neighbouring areas.Finite-difference synthetic seismograms are used to constrain the position and physical properties of the reflective layer. SAREX/Deep Probe modelling uses a 2-D visco-elastic finite-difference routine; THoRE modelling uses a pseudospectral algorithm. In both cases, the upper mantle is parameterized in terms of two media. One medium is the background matrix; the other is statistically distributed within the first as a series of elliptical bodies. Such a scheme is suitable for modelling: (1) variations in lithology (e.g., a peridotite matrix with eclogite lenses) or (2) variations in rheology (e.g., lenses of increased strain within a less strained background).The synthetic seismograms show that the properties of heterogeneities in the upper mantle do not change significantly between the two Lithoprobe transects. Beneath the Trans-Hudson Orogen in Saskatchewan, the layer is best modelled to lie at depths between 80 and 150 km. Based on observations from perpendicular profiles, anisotropy of the heterogeneities is inferred. Beneath the Precambrian domains of Alberta, 400 km to the west, upper mantle heterogeneities are modelled to occur between depths of 90 and 140 km. In both cases the heterogeneous bodies within the model have cross-sectional lengths of tens of kilometers, vertical thicknesses less than 1 km, and velocity contrasts from the background of − 0.3 to − 0.4 km/s. Based on consistency with complementary data and other results, the heterogeneous layer is inferred to be part of the continental lithosphere and may have formed through lateral flow or deformation within the upper mantle.     

Estimating the minimum in-stream flow requirements via wetted perimeter method based on curvature and slope techniques

Under the assumptions of triangular cross section channel and uniform stable flow, an analytical solution of the minimum ecological in-stream flow requirement (MEIFR) is deduced. Based on the analytical solution, the uncertainty of the wetted perimeter method is analyzed by comparing the two techniques for the determination of the critical point on the relationship curve between wetted perimeter, P and discharge, Q. It is clearly shown that the results of MEIFR based on curvature technique (corresponding to the maximum curvature) and slope technique (slope being 1) are significantly different. On the P-Q curve, the slope of the critical point with the maximum curvature is 0.39 and the MEIFR varied prominently with the change of the slope threshold. This indicates that if a certain value of the slope threshold is not available for slope technique, curvature technique may be a better choice. By applying the analytical solution of MEIFR in the losing rivers of the Western Route South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China, the MEIFR value via curvature technique is 2.5%-23.7% of the multi-year average annual discharge, while that for slope technique is 11%-105.7%. General conclusions would rely on the more detailed research for all kinds of cross-sections.