陕西省人工神经元网络降水年,季度预报系统

利用Ｂ－Ｐ人工神经元网络进行了陕西省年度,季度降水预报试验,提出了利用０－１模型解决多等级预报问题的方法,并建立了年度,季度等级预报模型,经过试验,表明该方法预报效果良好,最后对模式在应用中的一些问题及目前其它预报模型的差异等进行了讨论。     

ISA accelerometer onboard the Mercury Planetary Orbiter: error budget

We have estimated a preliminary error budget for the Italian Spring Accelerometer (ISA) that will be allocated onboard the Mercury Planetary Orbiter (MPO) of the European Space Agency (ESA) space mission to Mercury named BepiColombo. The role of the accelerometer is to remove from the list of unknowns the non-gravitational accelerations that perturb the gravitational trajectory followed by the MPO in the strong radiation environment that characterises the orbit of Mercury around the Sun. Such a role is of fundamental importance in the context of the very ambitious goals of the Radio Science Experiments (RSE) of the BepiColombo mission. We have subdivided the errors on the accelerometer measurements into two main families: (i) the pseudo-sinusoidal errors and (ii) the random errors. The former are characterised by a periodic behaviour with the frequency of the satellite mean anomaly and its higher order harmonic components, i.e., they are deterministic errors. The latter are characterised by an unknown frequency distribution and we assumed for them a noise-like spectrum, i.e., they are stochastic errors. Among the pseudo-sinusoidal errors, the main contribution is due to the effects of the gravity gradients and the inertial forces, while among the random-like errors the main disturbing effect is due to the MPO centre-of-mass displacements produced by the onboard High Gain Antenna (HGA) movements and by the fuel consumption and sloshing. Very subtle to be considered are also the random errors produced by the MPO attitude corrections necessary to guarantee the nadir pointing of the spacecraft. We have therefore formulated the ISA error budget and the requirements for the satellite in order to guarantee an orbit reconstruction for the MPO spacecraft with an along-track accuracy of about 1 m over the orbital period of the satellite around Mercury in such a way to satisfy the RSE requirements.     

基于黄金分割理论的改进BP网络地下水水质评价

利用VB语言编写附加动量的改进BP人工神经网络模型程序,并将其加载到Excel中,以湛江市区地下水为例研究水质状况。该模型采用黄金分割理论和试算相结合的方法对网络模型的隐含层节点数进行了优选,研究结果与其他方法相比显示：改进BP人工神经网络模型在地下水水质评价中能够很好地解决评价因子与水质等级间复杂的非线形关系,评价结果的精度有较大地提高。     

田湾核电站5号、6号机组负挖爆破设计与质量控制

综述了在商业运行的核电站周边进行核岛负挖爆破的设计和质量控制,尤其对负挖预裂爆破和核岛廊道爆破技术及质量控制要点进行了较详细的表述,为类似核电负挖工程提供借鉴。     

An artificial neural network-based snow cover predictive modeling in the higher Himalayas

With trends indicating increase in temperature and decrease in winter precipitation, a significant negative trend in snow-covered areas has been identified in the last decade in the Himalayas. This requires a quantitative analysis of the snow cover in the higher Himalayas. In this study, a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model, an artificial neural network （ANN）, was deployed to predict the snow cover in the Kaligandaki river basin for the next 30 years. Observed climatic data, and snow covered area was used to train and test the model that captures the gross features of snow under the current climate scenario. The range of the likely effects of climate change on seasonal snow was assessed in the Himalayas using downscaled temperature and precipitation change projection from - HadCM3, a global circulation model to project future climate scenario, under the AIB emission scenario, which describes a future world of very rapid economic growth with balance use between fossil and non-fossil energy sources. The results show that there is a reduction of 9% to 46% of snow cover in different elevation zones during the considered time period, i.e., 2Oll to 2040. The 4700 m to 52oo m elevation zone is the most affected area and the area higher than 5200 m is the least affected. Overall, however, it is clear from the analysis that seasonal snow in the Kaligandaki basin is likely to be subject to substantialchanges due to the impact of climate change.     

The co-location of offshore windfarms and decapod fisheries in the UK: Constraints and opportunities

The offshore wind sector in the UK is expanding rapidly and is set to occupy significant areas of the coastal zone, making it necessary to explore the potential for co-location with other economic activities. The presence of turbine foundations introduces hard substrates into areas previously dominated by soft sediments, implying that artificial reef effects may occur, with potential benefits for fisheries. This review focuses on the possibilities for locating fisheries for two commercially important decapods, the brown crab Cancer pagurus and the European lobster Homarus gammarus, within offshore wind farms.Existing understanding of habitat use by C. pagurus and H. gammarus suggests that turbine foundations have the potential to act as artificial reefs, although the responses of these species to noise and electromagnetic fields are poorly understood. Offshore wind farm monitoring programmes provide very limited information, but do suggest that adult C. pagurus associate with turbine foundations, which may also serve as nursery areas. There was insufficient deployment and monitoring of rock armouring to draw conclusions about the association of H. gammarus with offshore wind farm foundations. The limited information currently available demonstrates the need for further research into the ecological and socio-economic issues surrounding fishery co-location potential.     

Improvement of groundwater resources potential by artificial recharge technique: A case study of Charf El Akab aquifer in the Tangier region,Morocco

In arid and semi-arid zones, water is the most vulnerable resource to climate change. In fact, various techniques such as artificial recharge are adopted to restore aquifers and to ensure aquifer sustainability in relation to the accelerated pace of exploitation. Morocco is a Mediterranean country highly vulnerable to climate change, many of its main aquifers are subjected to excessive drawdowns. This technique is practiced to increase potentiality of these aquifers. In the Northwestern area of Morocco, the significant development experienced by Tangier City in the industrial, tourism, and commercial sectors will lead to increased water requirements-up to 5 067 L/s (159.8 mm3) by 2030. However, the Charf El Akab aquifer system, subject to artificial recharge, is the only groundwater resource of Tangier region; hence, a rational management context is needed to ensure aquifer sustainability, and optimized exploitation under the background of differing constraints, such as increased water requirements, and climate change impacts. This work aims to respond, for the first time, to the Charf El Akab aquifer overexploitation problem, and to evaluate the future scenarios of its exploitation in the event of failure of one of the superficial resources. This work also presents a synthesized hydrodynamic modeling based on the results of the numerical simulations carried out using Feflow software for 2004 (date of cessation of injections) and 2011 (date of resumption of these facilities), making it possible to evaluate the impact of the artificial recharge on the piezometric level of the aquifer on a spatiotemporal scale. Finally, the exploitation scenarios have shown that the aquifer of Charf El Akab will not adequatly provide for the region's water requirements on the future horizon, entailing an optimal management of water resources in the region and an intentionally increased recharge rate.     

世界各国草地资源管理体制及其对我国的启示

草地在世界各大洲均有分布,世界各国对草地资源的管理有着不同的体制与策略.本文梳理了各大洲主要国家的草地资源管理体制,分析了草地资源管理历史进程与趋势,总结了各国草地资源管理的优势和可资借鉴之处.结合我国草地资源管理中存在的问题,建议我国要在国家层面重视草地资源的管理,建立专门行政部门管理全国60忆亩草地,建立健全现有的草地资源管理体制,同时建立草原质量的监测数据网络,并加强对草地利用的监管力度.     

Geopotential from space techniques

The monitoring of the perturbed motion of artificial satellites since the 1960's has provided a valuable resource for improved activities in geodesy. These observations and the improved geodetic techniques they fostered have provided an unparalleled means for studying both the gravity field and the Earth's shape. In this paper, we will review the various determinations of the Earth's gravity field produced at many research centers over the years from space techniques. The specific methods which have been used to measure our planet, such as satellite altimetry and satellite orbital perturbation analyses (over short and long periods of time), will be compared.     

光面爆破椭圆双极线性聚能药柱有效功及不耦合系数模拟研究

基于动力学仿真软件AUTODYN,对椭圆双极线性聚能药柱(EBLSC)进行了数值模拟。采用二维面对称计算方法,花岗岩岩体,空气夹层不耦合装药条件,研究了EBLSC结构及不耦合系数对光面爆破效果的影响,并建立有效体积功模型以评价爆破效果。结果表明,炮孔连线方向和垂直方向上的比冲量相近,偏差＜10%,故总能量沿周向近似均匀分布,但炮孔连线方向产生明显侵彻裂隙,且粉碎圈厚度和腔体扩张程度要小得多,表明该装药结构能够明显提高炸药能量的利用率和爆破效果;随着不耦合系数增大,炮孔连线方向上的损耗体积功先减小后增大,存在最大有效功。利用曲线拟合,得到最优不耦合系数约3.62,与相关文献的试验结果相近。