9711号台风的移动路径和影响山东的特大暴雨分析

对９７１１号台风的移动路径及其造成的暴雨进行了分析。分析表明,副高外围环流在台风移动过程中有明显的引导作用;台风的移动路径和暴雨落区与正涡度轴线及高能轴线都有较好的对应关系;对流层中层变能场的分布对台风移动路径有明显的预报指示意义。     

“菲特”台风路径和强度预报难点分析

利用1°×1°NCEP再分析资料、NOAA海温资料对其进行分析,结果表明:(1)副高突然加强西进,中低层高压带加强,在台风北侧形成高压坝和强盛偏东气流,是台风路径突然西折的主要原因;(2)"丹娜丝"的活动在一定程度上阻止了副热带高压的南落,有利于副高南侧偏东急流的维持和加强,对"菲特"路径的突然西折起一定作用。敏感性数值试验结果表明"双台风"效应对"菲特"登陆前进一步西折具有决定作用;(3)高低空急流的配置,产生了动力场的耦合作用,加强了台风的对流活动,所释放的潜热可以补偿海温降低的影响,对"菲特"在近海强度维持起到了重要作用;(4)"菲特"的强度和环境风垂直切变的演变规律基本一致,较低的环境风垂直切变是"菲特"在近海强度维持的重要原因。     

三维点云在轨道板快速检测中的应用

针对现有的CRTSⅢ型轨道板检测方法效率低下、设备组装复杂、部分还需人工操作等不足,基于三维点云数据实现了轨道板外形尺寸的高精度快速检测。利用轨道板标准三维模型建立相关检测特征,在完成轨道板三维点云数据相关预处理后,将点云数据精确配准至标准三维模型,利用模型上已建立的特征拟合计算轨道板表面点云数据的检测特征,获得轨道板各检测指标的测量值;计算测量值与标准三维模型设计尺寸之间的偏差,从而实现轨道板外形尺寸的快速检测。实验表明,与常规的检测手段相比,该方法具有检测精度高、速度快、检测结果稳定可靠、检测项目齐全等优点,具有良好的应用前景。     

OBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATION OF THE TRACKS OF TROPICAL STORMS IN THE BAY OF BENGAL

An objective analysis of tropical cyclone tracks is performed, with which the tracks of 131 tropical storms (TSs) in 1972-2011 are separated into three types that move west-, north- and northwestward, denoted as Types A, B and C, respectively. Type A (21 TSs and 16% of total) has the origin in the southwestern Bay of Bengal, with the TS in a unimodal distribution as its seasonal feature, occurring mainly in autumn; 18 of the 21 TSs (taking up 90%) land mostly on the western Bay coast (west of 85°E); 5% of Type-A TSs attains the wind speed of >42.7 to 48.9 m/s. Type A has little or no effect on Tibet. Type B (74 TSs, 56.6% of the total) has its preferable origin in the central Bay of Bengal, with the TS in a bimodal distribution as its seasonal pattern. This type denotes the travel in the north in spring, with the landfall of 67 of the 74 TSs (accounting for 91%) mainly on the middle coast of the Bay (85° to 95°E), and 19% of the TSs reaching the wind velocity of >42.7 to 48.9 m/s, which exert great effect on Tibet and it is this TS track that gives strong precipitation on its way through this region. Type C (36 TSs, 27.5% of the total) has its main origin in the southern part of the bay, and these TSs are formed largely in autumn, moving in the northwest direction, and 23 of the 36 TSs (64%) land mostly on the western Bay coast, lasting for a longer time, with almost no impact upon Tibet.     

准噶尔盆地周缘造山带裂变径迹研究及其地质意义

通过对准噶尔盆地东西两侧造山带地质剖面观察、系统裂变径迹测年与热演化模拟结果分析,并结合前人研究结果,准噶尔盆地周缘造山带中,主要经历了中生代晚期构造热事件。通过裂变径迹分析对比,准噶尔盆地两侧造山带具有不同的隆升历史,盆地西北缘早于东部隆升,隆升速率亦大于东部。准噶尔盆地西北缘自白垩纪以来经历了由准噶尔盆地边缘向扎伊尔山先后依次隆升事件,表明了准噶尔西北缘逆冲断裂系向盆内后展式逆冲推覆。准噶尔盆地东西两侧造山带岩石裂变径迹数据均反映了白垩纪以来的冷却隆升事件,充分证实了燕山晚期构造运动在准噶尔地区的普遍存在,为详细研究燕山期新疆北部陆内构造活动提供了证据。     

Joint inversion of temperature,vitrinite reflectance and fission tracks in apatite with examples from the eastern North Sea area

As sediment accumulation indicates basin subsidence, erosion often is understood as tectonic uplift, but the amplitude and timing may be difficult to determine because the sedimentary record is missing. Quantification of erosion therefore requires indirect evidence, for example thermal indicators such as temperature, vitrinite reflectance and fission tracks in apatite. However, as always, the types and quality of data and the choice of models are important to the results. For example, considering only the thermal evolution of the sedimentary section discards the thermal time constant of the lithosphere and essentially ignores the temporal continuity of the thermal structure. Furthermore, the types and density of thermal indicators determine the solution space of deposition and erosion, the quantification of which calls for the use of inverse methods, which can only be successful when all models are mutually consistent. Here, we use integrated basin modelling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo inversion of four deep boreholes to show that the erosional pattern along the Sorgenfrei–Tornquist Zone (STZ) in the eastern North Sea is consistent with a tectonic model of tectonic inversion based on compression and relaxation of an elastic plate. Three wells in close proximity SW of the STZ have different data and exhibit characteristic differences in erosion estimates but are consistent with the formation of a thick chalk sequence, followed by minor Cenozoic erosion during relaxation inversion. The well on the inversion ridge requires ca. 1.7 km Jurassic-Early Cretaceous sedimentation followed by Late Cretaceous–Palaeocene erosion during inversion. No well demands thick Cenozoic sedimentation followed by equivalent significant Neogene exhumation. When data are of high quality and models are consistent, the thermal indicator method yields significant results with important tectonic and geodynamic implications.     

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南海台风模式对“海燕”移动路径的预报

超强台风"海燕"是2013年最著名的台风。分析中国南海台风模式对"海燕"整个过程的预报,发现模式基本预报出"海燕"的快速穿过菲律宾和登陆越南后北翘东折的移动路径,但也存在一些不足,例如强度预报偏弱。通过高分辨率数值模拟分析了"海燕"的变化机理,发现高层暖心、高中低层一致东风气流是其超强发展和快速西移的主要特征。进一步的模式预报试验中,探讨了模拟技术对提高台风预报水平的影响作用。分析结果表明,准确的模式物理参数化(如边界层、积云对流和地形参数化)和模式初始大气构造等,以及提高模式分辨率有助于提高台风预报水平。     

青海东昆仑哈日扎多金属矿区构造活动的锆石裂变径迹定年分析

青海省哈日扎多金属矿区位于东昆仑东段,属东昆中多旋回岩浆弧带,是新的矿产勘查基地,成矿作用主要受NE和NW向两组构造蚀变带控制。本文通过不同类型样品的锆石裂变径迹定年分析,探讨区内的构造活动。所获得的10个样品年龄为116~204 Ma,并由3个组年龄构成,即204~181 Ma,142~168 Ma和116~120 Ma。第1组年龄204~181 Ma反映印支晚期三叠纪末羌塘地块与昆仑地块碰撞的地质事件及其时限;后两组年龄主要是晚侏罗世~早白垩世冈底斯地体向北与羌塘地体碰撞汇聚的响应,活动时限为168~116 Ma。第2和3组年龄同时表明本区燕山期构造活动存在强度差异,即有两个强作用期。同时,3组年龄也揭示本区具有多期次成矿活动。     

自由测站边角交会网在工程中的应用

鉴于自由测站边角交会网具有网形规则、可靠性高、多余观测数多和观测时无需对中等优点,提出将自由测站边角交会网应用于长大隧道洞内平面控制、基坑水平位移监测和有砟轨道CPⅢ平面网建网中。研究结果表明,将自由测站边角交会网应用于上述工程中都能在一定程度上克服传统方法的不足,提高测量效率和精度,值得推广使用。