Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: Initial uncertainties

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions (“initials”, hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.     

地壳运动驱动力的探讨——核能与地球演化

本文综合核物理、天文和地质学的最新研究成果,推导出在45亿年前太阳系的全部原始类地行星及其某些卫星(包括地球及月球)上,发生过大规模的、持续的铀、钚链式核裂变,释出了巨大的热能,熔化了整个原始星球。新星球的物质发生了重力分异作用、形成了按密度划分的圈层结构。地球中心是内地核,在高压下压成了固态。铀、钚下沉到内地核顶部停留,继续发生链式核裂变,但改变不了内地核的固态性质。从此处产生的核裂变能,主要以热对流的形式外导。直到前45亿年以后,铀的链式核裂变停止了,只剩下钚的链式核裂变,生成的热能减少了,地球开始冷凝。当熔浆表面温度下降到700~800℃时,较轻的花岗岩质岩浆首先凝固成薄层。它很脆弱、经不起大风浪和潮汐力的冲击,破碎成小块,随着下面对流的玄武岩质熔浆汇集起来,形成大片飘浮物,后来就成为大陸;小片的便成为岛屿。温度逐渐下降,地幔冷凝成固体。温度下降至100℃以下,大气中的水蒸气冷凝成水,下落汇集在地表低凹处,便有了海洋和湖泊。所以海洋底主要分布着玄武岩。从内地核顶部不断产生的核能以"地幔柱"的形式穿过固体地幔,上升至地壳。受坚硬地壳的隔挡、便集中在地壳下构成软流层。当地壳岩石受热软化和可以流动之后,便开始向压力小的方向流动。又受日、月引力和地球自身自转力的作用,软流层的动能又有了增强。这种巨大的能量支配了地壳的升降、褶曲、断裂、变质、岩浆、火山和地震等活动。地球是天体之一,无时不受自然界各种作用力的影响,但支配它演化的主要作用力是核能。本文还简述了核能、核素与太阳系星体演化的关系。     

The Exhumation History of North Qaidam Thrust Belt Constrained by Apatite Fission Track Thermochronology: Implication for the Evolution of the Tibetan Plateau

Determining the spatio-temporal distribution of the deformation tied to the India-Eurasian convergence and the impact of pre-existing weaknesses on the Cenozoic crustal deformation is significant for understanding how the convergence between India and Eurasia contributed to the development of the Tibetan Plateau. The exhumation history of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau was addressed in this research using a new apatite fission track (AFT) study in the North Qaidam thrust belt (NQTB). Three granite samples collected from the Qaidam Shan pluton in the north tied to the Qaidam Shan thrust, with AFT ages clustering in the Eocene to Miocene. The other thirteen samples obtained from the Luliang Shan and Yuka plutons in the south related to the Luliang Shan thrust and they have showed predominantly the Cretaceous AFT ages. Related thermal history modeling based on grain ages and track lengths indicates rapid cooling events during the Eocene-early Oligocene and since late Miocene within the Qaidam Shan, in contrast to those in the Cretaceous and since the Oligocene-Miocene in the Luliang Shan and Yuka region. The results, combined with published the Cretaceous thermochronological ages in the Qaidam Shan region, suggest that the NQTB had undergo rapid exhumation during the accretions along the southern Asian Andean-type margin prior to the India-Eurasian collision. The Cenozoic deformation initially took place in the North Qaidam thrust belt by the Eocene, which is consistent with the recent claim that the deformation of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau initiated in the Eocene as a response to continental collision between India and Eurasia. The immediate deformation responding to the collision is tentatively attributed to the pre-existing weaknesses of the lithosphere, and therefore the deformation of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau should be regarded as a boundary-condition-dependent process.     

天山山脉中新生代差异隆升及其机制探讨

为了揭示长约2500 km的天山山脉中新生代隆升特征,本文系统梳理分析了已发表的磷灰石裂变径迹数据和本次野外采样测得磷灰石裂变径迹数据约460个,岩性以花岗岩和砂岩为主。结果显示整个天山山脉隆升具有明显的时空差异性。白垩纪以前记录的径迹数据约占14%,白垩纪以来的数据约占86%,晚古生代末天山已有径迹年龄记录,到晚侏罗世天山部分地区发生隆升,整体隆升不明显,早白垩世以来整个天山普遍隆升,且存在多期隆升事件,但隆升剥蚀速率存在明显差异。南北方向上,自南向北径迹年龄有减小的趋势,揭示山脉隆升自南天山向北天山扩展;东西方向上,西天山隆升时限较东天山隆升早,但白垩纪以来东、西天山均有隆升记录。天山山脉差异性隆升是不同陆块对亚洲板块南缘碰撞增生作用的共同结果,其内部块体的结构特征和力学性质是差异隆升的基础和前提。     

金川铜镍矿床中新生代抬升冷却过程：来自裂变径迹的证据

本文基于热年代学理论,利用锆石和磷灰石裂变径迹测年数据及对磷灰石热史的模拟,分析探讨金川铜镍矿床在中新生代的抬升冷却过程,认为金川超基性岩体自中生代以来一直处于持续的冷却抬升阶段,且在中侏罗世和晚白垩世早期经历了两期快速的抬升冷却事件,推断此事件与青藏高原后期活动时间相对应,证明金川岩体受到该事件的远程效应波及,致使该矿床遭受了一定的改造。     

矿床保存变化研究的热年代学技术方法

成矿后矿床的保存与变化是矿床地质研究的重要组成部分,但研究程度不高,至今仍属于薄弱环节。矿床的保存与其隆升剥露密切相关,深入细致研究恢复矿区矿床的隆升和剥露历史,是揭示矿床保存变化的一种重要途径。本文重点论述研究矿床保存变化的技术方法,通过综合应用裂变径迹、(U-Th)/He、~(40)Ar-~(39)Ar年代学以及La-ICP-MS、锆石U-Pb定年等多种技术手段,研究成矿期次、构造活动期次以及二者间的联系,定量计算不同矿区、不同矿体、不同部位、不同时间的冷却隆升速率、隆升幅度、剥蚀速率和剥蚀量,探讨矿床保存深度与剥蚀量间的关系,总结不同时代、不同矿区矿床保存-变化过程,建立新的矿床地质-保存环境模型,完善矿床预测的综合示踪标志,最终预测不同矿区、不同地段隐伏矿床可能的产出深度,给出矿床可能已经被剥蚀殆尽的区段或地段,为深部找矿和区域成矿潜力评价提供依据。本文可为地质工作者的相关应用提供借鉴和手段。     

Apatite Composition of Representative Magnetite‐series and Ilmenite‐series Granitoids in Japan

Apatites of representative magnetite‐series and ilmenite‐series granitoids were studied in the Japanese Islands. Concentrations of the volatile components F, Cl and SO₃ are differently distributed in apatites of these granitoid series. Apatites are always fluoroapatite. They have weakly higher F content in the ilmenite series than in the magnetite series. In contrast, Cl and SO₃, are significantly concentrated in apatites of the magnetite series compared to the ilmenite series. These characteristics reflect the original concentrations of these components in the host granitic magmas. A high fO₂ seems most important for the S‐concentration as sulfate in apatite of the magnetite series. REE and Y are only erratically high in the studied apatites.     

Exhumation of the Mesozoic Guojialing Granodiorite: Implication for the Preservation of Gold Deposits in the Jiaobei Terrane,China

Preservation conditions are very important for mineral systems and a suitable exhumation process is critical for endogenetic deposits, especially for those deposits formed in orogenic settings, where deposits are inclined to erode away due to strong uplift. The G uojialing batholith, intruding into the L inglong granites and the J iaodong G roup right before regional gold mineralization, is one of the most important gold ore‐hosting M esozoic intrusions in the J iaobei terrane. Gold deposits and the intrusion together underwent similar tectonothermal evolutionary processes. Exhumation and denudation process of the G uojialing granodiorite was constrained by biotite geobarometry and apatite fission track (FT ) analysis. Biotite geobarometric data yields an emplacement depth of 3.0 km, while denudation since 110 M a was calculated from the FT data at about 2.7 km. FT inverse modeling revealed a rapid uplift since ca 100 Ma. Compared with the gold ore‐forming depth which is confined between 2.5 and 9.5 km by fluid inclusion studies, great gold potential in the depths is inferred in the J iaobei terrane. Our result is consistent, to some extent, with the hypothesis of a M esozoic paleoplateau in E ast C hina.     

中新生代南北天山差异性抬升历史的磷灰石裂变径迹证据

堆积于天山山前坳陷内部的巨厚新生代地层不仅记录所在沉积区的热历史信息,还记录了物源区的信息。本文选择天山南北两侧山前坳陷中3条地质剖面进行了大量的磷灰石裂变径迹测试和部分样品的热历史模拟分析,来揭示上新世以来天山在南北方向上隆升过程的差异性。采样剖面的选取较前人更加靠近前陆盆地方向,样品所在地层年代更新。结果显示,东秋里塔格背斜剖面中的样品记录了中天山、南天山和背斜区分别在55~65Ma、20~25Ma和5Ma经历了构造隆升。玛纳斯背斜剖面中的样品记录了北天山的三次构造隆升事件分别发生于55~65Ma、20~25Ma和5Ma,其中距今5Ma为玛纳斯背斜带起始隆升的时代。结合前人在相同区域的研究成果,分析得出天山的不同部分经历了不同的构造演化历史,自150Ma以来经历了三期差异性隆升。中生代时期(150~125Ma)表现为山体整体抬升,中生代晚期-新生代早期(100~50Ma)北天山明显早于南天山开始构造隆升,新生代以来(~50Ma)的构造运动以向前陆盆地方向扩展为特征,而隆升起始时间南北差异变小。虽然在南北方向上天山山体隆起时间上存在明显的差异,但是中新生代以来山体物源区的剥蚀速率大体相同。因此,隆升起始时间与隆升量之间并不存在必然的定量关系。天山的不同块体具有不同的构造演化历史的事实提示在研究大范围构造隆升作用时,应将构造作用作为一个过程来对待。变形在传递的过程中,在时间和空间上存在一定的滞后现象。     

渤海湾盆地济阳坳陷碎屑锆石裂变径迹年龄记录的构造抬升事件

对采自渤海湾盆地东南部济阳坳陷的碎屑岩进行测年研究,目的是通过碎屑锆石裂变径迹年龄揭示源区及其抬升剥露史和构造热事件,为华北克拉通构造演化特别是元古宙构造演化提供新的热年代学约束。14件上白垩统-上新统砂岩/粉砂岩岩心样品测年结果显示,锆石裂变径迹年龄分布在308±35Ma~145±19Ma之间,且所有单颗粒锆石径迹年龄均大于其沉积年龄,表明这些锆石为碎屑锆石。除1件样品外,其余13件样品的单颗粒年龄的,可以用来识别源区及其构造抬升。未通过χ2检验的锆石二项式最佳拟合峰值年龄集中分为9组:P1(1187Ma)、P2(720~548Ma)、P3(526Ma)、P4(330~319Ma)、P5(296~274Ma)、P6(213~201Ma)、P7(195~177Ma、162Ma)、P8(134~102Ma)和P9(94Ma),加上通过χ2检验的三叠纪(230Ma),指示源区中元古代-晚白垩世经历的9期构造抬升/岩浆活动。它们分别是发生在中元古代的芹峪运动、新元古代的构造抬升(约720~575Ma)、~548Ma的蓟县运动;古生代~526Ma早寒武世末构造运动、海西期构造抬升;晚三叠世印支期挤压构造抬升、早-中侏罗世印支期弱挤压抬升、早白垩世燕山期强烈岩浆活动及晚白垩世燕山晚期的抬升。华北克拉通北缘、克拉通内部古陆和盆地内部是渤海湾盆地上白垩统-上新统的主要物源区,古生代以来剥露速率逐渐增大,古生代、三叠纪、早-中侏罗世和白垩纪分别为0.020~0.033mm/y,0.033~0.042mm/y,0.034~0.049mm/y和0.041~0.097mm/y,反映源区白垩纪构造/岩浆活动最强烈。锆石裂变径迹年龄记录的中元古代-晚白垩世构造运动对探讨华北克拉通的构造演化特别是元古宙的演化提供了年代学证据,综合分析推断华北克拉通可能参与了Rodinia超大陆的形成与裂解。