Hydrogeological and Gasgeochemical Earthquake Precursors – A Review for Application

Even if earthquake precursory signals can be identified, how can they be useful? This paper investigates relationships among the attributes of 229 proposed earthquake related gasgeochemical and hydrogeological precursory signals, and applies these results to improve future earthquake prediction strategies. Sub-groups of these reported signals and relationships between sub-groups are established using parameters, including earthquake magnitude, signal duration, precursory time, and epicentral distance to the monitoring site (original studies are used wherever possible to improve data quality). A strong correlation (r=0.86) between signal duration and precursory time was identified. This suggests a relationship between the investigated precursory signals and tectonic processes related to the referenced earthquakes. Moreover, these signals are categorized into four groups, reflecting differences in monitoring station densities, measurement methods and physical processes related to signal occurrence: (a) radon exhalation from the earth’s crust, (b) exhalation of other gases (helium, argon and others), (c) temporal variation in water level or discharge of springs and (d) temporal variation in temperature and dissolved ions in the water of the monitoring sites. In addition, boundary functions are used to separate signal group subsets. Finally, it is shown how these boundary functions can be used in the context of an earthquake prediction strategy by identifying potential minimum magnitudes and maximum epicentral distances from the monitoring site.     

Elasto-viscoplastic finite element study of the effect of degradation on bearing capacity of footing on clay ground

The bearing capacity of footing has been studied by both conventional and numerical methods by many researchers. However, degradation of the microstructure of material, that is, a change in the microstructure of the soil, has not been adequately taken into account. Degradation of microstructure causes strain softening of materials and it leads to strain localization such as shear bands and slip bands. From an engineering point of view the strain localization is crucial because it is a precursor of failure. In the present study, finite element analyses of the bearing capacity of a shallow foundation on homogeneous and inhomogeneous saturated clay strata have been conducted using an elasto-viscoplastic soil constitutive model of microstructure change. A series of analyses of footing on clay deposit with different microstructure parameters have been carried out. Numerical results show that strain localization can be predicted during the loading of rigid footing on highly structured soil and strain localization affects the footing–soil interaction. The effects of footing roughness on the failure mechanism are also discussed in the study.     

新疆相对资源承载力评估模型构建及其实证分析

在分析了区域人地关系系统基础上构建区域PRED系统,相对资源承载力模型进行了4方面改进：（1）基于人地关系理论和可持续发展理论构建区域PRED系统模型,将人口、资源、环境、社会和经济各子系统相对资源承载力进行整合。（2）在自然资源子系统中加入了林业用地面积和建设用地面积两个重要指标,在环境资源子系统中加入了环境污染治理投资总额,并在社会资源了系统中加入了全社会固定资产投资总额这一指标。（3）提出了加权平方平均相对资源承载力模型,并利用该模型对新疆维吾尔自治区（以下简称新疆）2000-2014 年相对资源承载力进行。（4）结合脱钩理论对相对资源综合承载力与资源环境、社会经济因子之间的关系进行研究。结果表明：采用改进后的相对资源承载力模型得出评价结果更符合资源匹配度较差地区的实际情况;新疆各要素相对资源承载力平均水平由大到小的顺序是：平均自然资源承载力、平均综合承载力、平均环境资源承载力、平均社会资源承载力、平均经济资源承载力。研究期间一直处于富余状态,自然资源优势相对突出,但是环境资源、经济资源、社会资源劣势也很明显,新疆综合承载力与资源环境、经济社会要素的矛盾十分突出。     

阳原盆地化稍营地区断层主要活动时期的研究

研究一个地区断层主要活动时期是了解地壳构造运动或断层发育历史的基础。本文仍沿用了传统研究法,并将同位素法和石英形貌法测年与显微构造分析法引进到研究断层主要活动时期的工作中,取得了能相互映正的结果,最后确定阳原盆地化稍营地区的断层经历过:元古代前;燕山期;6～9千万年;上新世——早更新世和最后一次较强烈活动在20—30万年以前等五次主要活动时期。     

Wave forces on, and water-surface fluctuations around a vertical cylinder encircled by a perforated square caisson

The wave forces and moments on and the water surface fluctuations around a vertical circular cylinder encircled by a perforated square caisson were experimentally investigated. The porosity of the outer square caisson was varied from 4.24 to 14.58%. The in-line wave forces on the inner vertical cylinder are influenced by changing the porosity of the outer caisson, whereas the variations in the water surface fluctuations are less influenced in this porosity range. The in-line moment on the vertical cylinder is relatively less sensitive when the porosity is increased from 4.24 to 8.75%, but varies substantially when it is increased from 8.75 to 14.58%. The force and moment ratio (i.e. the ratio of the force or moment on the vertical cylinder, when it is encircled by the perforated caisson to the force or moment on the cylinder without any protection around it) reduces with increased wave height, H, and wave length, L, whereas the wave height ratio (ratio of the wave height at a point in the vicinity of the structure to the incident wave height) is less sensitive for the varying H and L. A new non-dimensional parameter, p^1.5 (D/L)/(H/d), is introduced to predict the in-line force and moment on the inner vertical cylinder, where d is local water depth, D is the diameter of the inner cylinder and p is the porosity of the outer caisson in percentage. Simple predictive equations for forces, moments and water surface fluctuations are provided.     

二元函数逼近在斜坡可靠度分析中的应用研究

极限平衡分析方法是斜坡稳定性评价中的常用方法,在长期的工程实践中积累了丰富的经验,但其不能考虑斜坡岩土体中实际存在的不确定性,在应用中具有一定的局限性。可靠度分析方法可有效地考虑斜坡系统内的不确定性和相关性,但因状态函数偏导数的求解比较困难,使可靠度分析方法在实际中应用不便。为解决上述问题,根据二元函数插值逼近原理,在矩形区域上构造拉格朗日不完全双二次多项式逼近状态函数,从而近似地计算状态函数的偏导数,求得状态函数的均值和方差,并利用精度较高的一次二阶矩方法来计算斜坡的可靠指标和破坏概率。据鄂西恩施地区马堡营滑坡实例分析表明,引入二元函数插值逼近的一次二阶矩方法计算结果与剩余推力法及Monte-carlo模拟方法结果一致,其精度可满足工程需求。     

A comparative error analysis of manual versus automated methods of data acquisition for algebraic strain estimation

This paper presents a statistical analysis of the algebraic strain estimation algorithm of Shimamoto and Ikeda [Shimamoto, T., Ikeda, Y., 1976. A simple algebraic method for strain estimation from deformed eillipsoidal objects: 1. Basic theory. Tectonophysics 36, 315–337]. It is argued that the error in their strain estimation procedure can be quantified using an expected discrepancy measure. An analysis of this measure demonstrates that the error is inversely proportional to the number of clasts used. The paper also examines the role of measurement error, in particular that incurred under (i) a moment based and (ii) manual data acquisition methods. Detailed analysis of these two acquisition methods shows that in both cases, the effect of measurement error on the expected discrepancy is small relative to the effect of the sample size (number of objects). Given their relative speed advantage, this result favours the use of automated measurement methods even if they incur more measurement error on individual objects. Validation of these results is carried out by means of a simulation study, as well as by reference to studies appearing in previous literature. The results are also applied to obtain an upper bound on the error of strain estimation for various studies published in the literature on strain analysis.     

黄土高原典型小流域道路特征及影响因素

通过GPS野外实测黄土高原纸坊沟小流域的道路特征,在GIS空间分析等方法支持下研究了流域内各级道路的分布规律。研究表明:黄土高原道路可分为4级,2级以下的土路是小流域的代表路型。各级别道路总长度都随级别增大而增加且累计总长度与道路级别线性相关,道路平均长度和密度则随级别增大而减小。道路网系和流域水系在结构规律上具有一定的相似性。不同级别道路分布范围受地形特征影响不同。爬坡道路坡度与地表坡度之间存在线性回归关系,且次级道路分布受主路控制;典型爬坡路在大于25°坡度范围内多呈"之"字形弯曲,随坡度的减小道路弯曲跨度和与等高线夹角增大。研究结果有助于定量模拟黄土高原地区道路分布特征,并为土壤侵蚀模型中道路影响因子的确定提供参考。     

Spurious Clusters in Granulometric Data Caused by Logratio Transformation

The logratio transformation aims to eliminate spurious correlations between components of compositional data. When applying this method to granulometric data, there arise numerical problems with zero (empty) components. In this paper, the method of logratio transformation with zero replacement is examined using one natural and two simulated granulometric data sets. The results show that this method generates spurious clusters, and thus it is not appropriate for the investigation of grain-size data in particular, and of compositional data with zero components in general.     

Fractal analysis of long-range paleoclimatic data: Oxygen isotope record of pacific core V28-239

R/S analysis of the oxygen isotope curve of Pacific core V28-239 yields a fractal dimension of 1.22. This value is considered to characterize global climatic change over the last 2 million years as expressed by changing O¹⁸ ratios and confirms that climatic variations are characterized by long-term persistence. The fractal dimension of 1.22 compares favorably with the approximate fractal dimension of 1.26 for annual precipitation records for nine major cities in the United States. Although the precipitation and oxygen isotope data are measured in different physical units and recorded at different time scales, fractal analysis allows for a mathematical comparison of the two phenomena. Additionally, since the fractal dimensions of the oxygen isotope and precipitation records are similar, it is implied that such fractal dimensions are characteristic of climate change over the spectral range of 10 to 10⁶ years. Given this temperature curves based on fractal parameters of long-term O¹⁸ data could be constructed which would allow examination of characteristics of temperature variation over tens and hundreds of years. Such studies may allow the establishment of limits on natural temperature variation and document the persistence of temperature trends through time. If these trends and limits can be resolved, long-range climatic prediction is feasible.