2015年5月大气环流和天气分析

对2015年3—5月T639、ECMWF（文中简称EC）及日本数值模式中期预报产品进行了检验和对比。结果表明：三个模式对亚洲中高纬地区大尺度环流和850 hPa温度的演变和调整均具有较好的预报性能,EC模式对西风指数、850 hPa温度转折过程和变化幅度的预报略优于其他两个模式。对2015年3月31日至4月1日北方地区强沙尘暴天气过程的主要影响天气系统,三个模式预报能力相当,121 h时效都较好地预报出了地面冷高压,但强度和范围与实况有一定偏差。     

H I distribution in the region of the supernova remnant G78.2+2.1

Based on RATAN-600 21-cm line observations with an angular resolution of 2.4′ over a wide range of radial velocities, we analyze the neutral-hydrogen distribution in the region of the SNR G78.2+2.1. In addition to an H I shell at low radial velocities immediately surrounding the radio remnant, we detected an extended expanding H I shell, ≈3° in diameter, at a radial velocity of ?25 km s^?1, which closely coincides in coordinates and angular sizes with the outer X-ray shell discovered by Lozinskaya et al. (2000). The Hα emission studied by these authors in the SNR region also has a secondary peak at radial velocities from ?45 to ?20 km s^?1. Since the radial velocities of these two objects differ significantly, their distances can be assumed to differ as well; i.e., a chance projection of two distinct objects is observed.     

Crack nucleation in saturated porous media

Crack nucleation has been the subject of important contributions in the last two last decades. However, it seems that few attention has been granted to the case of saturated porous media. This is the question addressed in the present paper which is devoted to nucleation in traction mode. From a physical point of view, nucleation is a sudden phenomenon, so that the material response is both adiabatic and undrained. In the spirit of the variational approach, the nucleated crack is viewed as the final state of a region of space in which the material undergoes a full damage process. In traction mode, the opening of a saturated crack in undrained condition induces a drop of fluid pressure. In case of low fluid compressibility, the presence of the fluid delays the brittle failure usually associated with nucleation, as long as the fluid pressure remains above the saturation vapor pressure. Nucleation is therefore possible only if a partial vaporization of the fluid takes place.     

2017年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验

对2017年6—8月T639、ECMWF及日本（文中简称JP）数值模式的中期预报产品进行了分析和检验,结果表明：三个模式对欧亚中高纬环流形势的调整和演变均具有较好的预报性能,能较准确地反映出欧亚地区中高纬大尺度环流形势的演变和调整,表现出较好的中期预报能力。ECMWF和T639模式在中期时效能够较好地对副热带高压的南北摆动和东西移动趋势进行预报,其中ECMWF的预报偏差更小且模式对于盛夏副热带高压西伸脊点的预报优于初夏。ECMWF和T639模式对全国大部分地区温度预报偏低,ECMWF模式的预报效果最好,而JP模式温度预报偏差相对较大,各模式对温度的升降波动预报较为准确。对强台风天鸽,三个模式对台风强度的预报均偏弱,其中ECMWF模式相对更准确地把握了台风的强度变化和移动路径,综合预报效果最好。     

大型整体式贮煤筒仓基础有限元分析

采用有限元分析了不同土体的弹性本构关系和不同堆煤荷载施加方式对筒仓基础的影响;在此基础上分析了煤压力、桩土之间的接触压力、桩的内力与变形、土体沉降等变化规律。从计算结果可知,考虑土体的弹性模量随土层的压实而提高,并考虑煤与筒仓、基础土体之间的相互作用,使得筒仓基础的受力状态与实际情况更接近,从而得到优化的筒仓基础设计。     

Thermal bending of thin, anisotropic, clamped elliptic plates

The present note deals with the exact analytical solution of thermal bending of clamped, anisotropic, elliptic plates in the case where the thermal field is given by an expression of the type T(x,y,z)=z(Ax²+Cxy+By²).The problem is of basic interest in some ocean and mechanical structural systems since anisotropic materials are commonly used in those fields. Obviously the case of an orthotropic material constitutes a particular situation of the problem under study.     

大陆岛入海沉积物通量的估算研究

大陆岛入海沉积物通量（Q_s）信息对于精确解译大陆架沉积记录的研究是个重要补充。针对如何估算大陆岛Q_s的科学问题,本文以中国东南部海域的8 227个大陆岛为例,提出了一种基于邻近大陆中小型河流Q_s的经验公式计算大陆岛Q_s的解决方案。该方案在实施时需设置两个假定,即大陆岛的Q_s法则遵循邻近大陆中小河流的Q_s法则和可将1个大陆岛当作1个河流流域计算其Q_s。结果表明：（1）经验公式计算的大陆岛Q_s为其最小估计值;如考虑大陆岛流域的具体情况,实际的Q_s值会稍微增加,但其增幅不超过n^0.13（n为流域数量）;（2）经验公式能获取大陆岛Q_s的大致数量级信息;大陆岛的总面积为4 418.49 km²,对应Q_s的数量级为10⁶ t/a,与邻近大陆中型河流入海通量的数量级相当;（3）在大河河口湾充填阶段完成以前,大陆岛沉积物是内陆架泥质沉积体的主要物源之一。因此,大陆岛入海沉积物会对大陆架沉积体系的形成和演化造成一定程度的影响,需引起研究人员的高度重视。     

A control-volume finite-element method for three-dimensional multiphase basin modeling

In this paper we describe a 3D control-volume finite-element method to solve numerically the coupled partial differential equations (PDEs) governing geological processes involved in the evolution of sedimentary basins. These processes include sediment deposition and deformation, hydrocarbon generation, multiphase fluid flow, and heat transfer in deforming porous media.     

波速线性变化介质中地震波传播特征

根据变速介质中地震波传播所满足的变系数波动方程,推导出波速线性变化介质中一维波动方程的解析解,讨论了波速不均匀性对地震波传播的影响：地震波振幅衰减大小与介质速度梯度有关;频率转折点两侧地震波传播性质;频率与地震波波速关系。     

非线性波消波及波场分布研究

本文基于雷诺平均N-S方程,并结合RNG k-e方程建立了粘性数值波浪水槽,对不同波陡、不同相对水深、不同相对波高的非线性规则波的阻尼消波问题和波场分布进行研究。文中提出了两种描述消波区内部阻尼变化的阻尼函数,分别适用于小波陡情形和高波陡情形。研究结果表明,小波陡组消波区可设为一个波长,阻尼系数取10~4～10~5即可满足消波要求,计算结果与实验结果及造波理论吻合良好;高波陡组消波区可设为两个波长,阻尼系数取10~4～10~5亦可满足消波要求,计算结果与实验结果吻合良好。此外,当波陡较小时,波场内反射情况的小幅改变即可对整个波场造成影响,特别是当水深较浅时这种影响极为明显,需谨慎考虑。当波陡较大时,水波能量较高,整个波场沿水波传播方向可观测到明显的衰减现象,在具体试验中需进行考虑。