The expert system for earthquake prediction (I)—the overall design and main structure

The Expert System For Earthquake Prediction (ESEP) is summarized in this paper. ESEP embraces three subsystems: long-middle term prediction system, annual prediction system and middle-short term prediction system. Each of the subsystems is composed of seven modules: the controlling module, the data base module, the expert knowledge base module, the method base module, the fact preparation module, the reasoning and decision-making module and the plotting and displaying module. The reasoning model ESEP/R and the knowledge expression model ESEP/K are set up in the ESEP, and new evidence combinations, CON (confine), W (weigh), and SYN (synthesize), have been proposed. The distinctive features of the ESEP are: (1) systemized; (2) several experts’ knowledge can be synthesized; (3) a large amount of data and experts’ experience is embraced; (4) four reasoning models and the synthetic decision-making technic are adopted; (5) several software environments are used; (6) modularization; and (7) possessing the friendly user interfaces. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 1–8, 1992.     

Nonlinear Dynamic Response of HDRB and Hybrid HDRB-Friction Sliders Base Isolation Systems

The isolation systems are usually made of rubber bearings that are sometimes coupled in hybrid combination with frictional devices; this is the case of an in-site experimental campaign, performed on a base isolated apartment building in Rapolla (south of Italy). Several dropout tests at initial displacements up to 17cm allowed to obtain in-site information on the true dynamic response of the isolation system (building and isolators). The tests carried out allow a comparison between the free vibration responses of a building, isolated by using a 28 HDRB isolation system only, or an HDRB-Friction Sliders Hybrid one. The paper highlights the main differences of the response in the superstructure (the structure over the isolation system) obtained by using only HDRB isolation system, or the Hybrid one (HDRB and Friction Sliders in parallel system). Analysis and comparisons of experimental data, show the influence of nonlinearities on structural higher modes amplification, especially observed by using the higher nonlinear Hybrid isolation system. Tests results confirm that, in the case of a regular superstructure, like the Rapolla building, the isolation system nonlinearities influence the structural response.     

Knowledge Representation Methods in Expert System for Earthquake Prediction ESEP 3.0

INTRODUCTIONKnowledgerepresentationandknowledgeacquisitionarekeyissuesinbuildinganexpertsystem .Theyarecloselyrelatedtothedomainproblem solvinglevelandcompetenceoftheexpertsystem .Intheknowledgeacquisitionprocess,thedomainexpertwillfirstofferandorganizepr…     

地震作用下结构时变物理参数识别

利用小波分析函数多尺度逼近方法,将剪切型结构在地震作用下时变的阻尼和刚度用尺度函数的线性组合表示,将时变参数的辨识问题转化为由已知的正交尺度函数和系统的输入输出来估计线性组合中的时不变系数问题,用最小二乘法对剪切型框架结构在地震作用下时变的刚度和阻尼进行了有效的辨识。此方法无需事先假定系统参数的时变规律,在有噪声情况下可以用Tikhonov正则化方法减小识别方程的不适定性对识别结果的影响。数值算例表明了该方法的有效性。     

中间件技术在地震信息系统中的应用

中间件技术屏蔽了底层分布式环境的复杂性和异构性,简化了分布式应用程序的开发,使分布式应用程序的健壮性、可扩展性、可用性更好。介绍了面向对象中间件、面向消息中间件、面向大规模分布式系统中间件、服务质量中间件等当前各种中间件技术发展的现状,分析了中间件技术的原理、种类及在地震信息系统中的应用,提出了中间件技术研究的几个发展趋势,即网格技术、面向移动计算、面向服务质量等。     

中国数字地震台网(CDSN)的近期发展

中国数字地震台网（CDSN）自20世纪80年代建成并投入运行以来,有力地促进了我国的数字地震学研究,扩大并加深了我们对地壳、地球内部构造和地震震源过程的认识,从而有助于地震预报和减轻地震灾害的研究工作．本文阐述了基于CDSN二期技术改造建立的CDSN数据通信系统,研发CDSN数字地震实时分析系统的进展．     

河湖水系连通特征及其利弊

随着水资源以及水环境健康的恶化,河湖水系连通性作为河流健康以及提高水资源利用的一个重要指标在国家＂十二五＂战略规划中被着重提出。目前,中国对河湖水系连通特征及其对河流健康的影响缺乏足够的认识,本文主要对河湖水系连通的定义、分类、评判指标、影响因素及其对水环境健康的影响进行了一一阐述。分析表明：维持水系连通可以明显地改善...     

多主体系统在城市发展模拟中的应用

多主体系统(Multi-Agent System, MAS)是由多个主体(Agent)组成的松散的网络,每个主体根据其属性和行为规则互相交流、协作甚至竞争。MAS通过模拟和观察大量主体的微观行为来研究系统整体的宏观规律,对复杂系统的演化机理具有更合理、更准确的解释力,因此,MAS在城市发展模拟中有很大的应用前景。本文介绍了多主体系统的基本框架及模拟思路,综述了国内外城市模拟研究中MAS理论的应用现状。重点分析了MAS理论在城市模拟应用中的五个关键课题:即微观个体数据的获取、微观主体的合理选择、主体行为规则的提取和设定、主体之间相互作用的描述与表达、环境变量的提取与导入等,并对相关研究进展进行了综述。研究表明,城市发展预测与政策评价是MAS应用的重点突破方向之一。     

基于分形的城市体系经济规模等级演变研究

利用区域城市体系经济规模等级分形理论,选取长江三角洲1995~2009期间4个年份的县级以上行政单位经济发展数据,计算了经济规模等级分形维数。以该地区城市体系经济规模等级分形维数的演变特征为载体,探讨了长江三角洲地区城市体系经济规模等级演变规律。结果表明:①虽然当前长三角地区各城市的经济社会发展水平差异较大,中心城市垄断性仍然较强,但其均匀化趋势明显。②经济规模等级的空间梯度特征明显,经济规模等级的均匀性随着距离区域核心城市距离的扩大而降低。③产业空间布局层次化逐步分明,中心城市的第三产业比重不断提升,区域控制能力不断增强,与以第二产业为主导的中小城市形成有机整体,区域经济竞争力整体得到提升。     

Administrative division system changes and urbanization in China

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