Harvest patterns and effort dynamics of indigenous and non-indigenous commercial sectors of the eastern Torres Strait reef line fishery

The reef line fishery (RLF) in eastern Torres Strait (ETS) is unique in that it has both a commercial indigenous sector and a commercial non-indigenous sector. Recently, concerns have been expressed by all stakeholders about the long-term sustainability of the fishery. These concerns have been exacerbated by the lack of detailed catch and effort information from both sectors, which has precluded any formal assessment of the fishery. In this paper, we characterise the harvest patterns and effort dynamics of the indigenous and non-indigenous commercial sectors of the ETS RLF using a range of data sources including commercial logbooks, community freezer records, voluntary logbooks and observer surveys. We demonstrate that bycatch is a significant component of the catch for both sectors and identify substantial differences in harvest patterns and effort dynamics between the sectors. Differences between sectors were observed in species composition and spatial and temporal patterns in catch, effort and catch per unit effort. These results highlight the inherent variation in catch and effort dynamics between the two commercial sectors of the ETS RLF and provide valuable information for the development of future assessments and appropriate management strategies for the fishery. The more reliable estimates of harvest patterns and effort dynamics for both sectors obtained from observer surveys will also assist in resolving issues relating to allocation of reef fish resources in Torres Strait.     

A factor analytic approach to the identification of geomorphic processes from soil particle size characteristics

Q-mode factor analysis of soil particle size data is used to identify the three dominant geomorphic processes responsible for the spatial variability of particle size in a catchment on the basaltic Darling Downs landsurface. Three factors are shown to account for 95 per cent of the textural variability of a suite of transported and sedentary materials. The spatial characteristics of groups of samples associated with the three factors suggests that the three factors are associated with suspended sediment transport and deposition, weathering, and bedload transport and deposition respectively. These interpretations are supported by the detailed graphical analysis of the cumulative particle size curves. The spatially variable influence of the three factors and related processes is given by their respective factor loadings which are mappable for the surface layer materials.     

2014 年于田MS 7. 3 地震产生的静态库仑应力变化及对周边断层的影响

计算了2008 年以来于田地区4 次MS5. 5 以上地震产生的同震静态库仑破裂应力场变化,分析它们之间的应力触发效应、4 次地震产生的应力变化与余震分布的关系及其对周边主要断层的影响。结果表明,2011 年MS5. 5、2014 年MS7. 3 地震均处于之前地震产生的库仑破裂应力增加区,增加值分别为0. 004、0. 021MPa,说明这两次地震明显受到之前强震触发作用的影响;而2012 年MS6. 2 地震位于之前地震产生的应力影区内,对其发生有延缓作用。此次MS7. 3 地震产生的库仑破裂应力场图像与目前余震空间分布特征较为吻合;但主震破裂面上部分应力增强区几乎没有余震发生,这些地区未来存在发生强余震的可能。距此次震中最近的贡嘎错断裂中段上不同断层段库仑应力扰动值变化很大,计算结果可能会受有限断层震源模型的一定影响,依然存在较强的地震危险性。此外,贡嘎错断裂东北段、普鲁断裂中西段及龙木错-邦达错断裂带西段受2008 年以来地震的累积库仑应力增加的影响也较为明显,其应力扰动最大值均超过0. 002MPa,同样存在一定地震危险性。     

基于地质统计先验信息的储层物性参数同步反演

本文提出的储层物性参数同步反演是一种高分辨率的非线性反演方法,该方法综合利用岩石物理和地质统计先验信息,在贝叶斯理论框架下,首先通过变差结构分析得到合理的变差函数,进而利用快速傅里叶滑动平均模拟算法（Fast Fourier TransformMoving Average,FFT-MA）和逐渐变形算法（Gradual Deformation Method,GDM）得到基于地质统计学的储层物性参数先验信息,然后根据统计岩石物理模型建立弹性参数与储层物性参数之间的关系,构建似然函数,最终利用Metropolis算法实现后验概率密度的抽样,得到物性参数反演结果。并将此方法处理了中国陆上探区的一块实际资料,本方法的反演结果具有较高的分辨率,与测井数据吻合度较高;由于可以直接反演储层物性参数,避免了误差的累积,大大减少了不确定性的传递,且计算效率较高。     

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment II: application of strong ground motion simulations

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA) has been introduced by Wiemer (Geophys Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000). The method, in its original form, utilizes attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity (PGV) exceedence probability. We substitute the attenuation relations together with their uncertainties by strong ground motion simulations for a set of scenarios. The main advantage of such an approach is that the simulations account for specific details of the aftershock source effects (faulting style, slip distribution, position of the nucleation point, etc.). Mean PGVs and their standard deviations are retrieved from the simulation results obtained by the new hybrid k-squared source model, and they are used for the PAHA analysis at a station under study. The model chosen for the testing purposes is inspired by the Izmit A25 aftershock (M _w  = 5.8) that occurred 26 days after the mainshock. The PAHA maps are compared with (1) those obtained by the use of attenuation relations and (2) the peak values of ten selected strong-motion recordings written by the aftershock at epicentral distances <50 km. We conclude that, although the overall hazard decay with increasing fault distance is similar, the PAHA maps obtained by the use of simulations exhibit remanent radiation pattern effect and prolongation in the strike direction due to the directivity effect pronounced for some of the scenarios. As regard the comparison with real data, we conclude that the PAHA maps agree with observed peak values due to appropriate attenuation model adopted in the analysis.     

不同参考面块体应变计算公式的对比分析

通过对不同块体应变计算公式的分析,利用模拟数据作为输入、采用经典平差方法求解应变参数并评定精度,进而对比不同参考面块体应变计算公式的差异。同时对小样本和大样本模拟数据应变计算结果进行统计分析。结果表明,平面公式与球面公式计算结果的差异与计算区域的大小有关,由投影误差决定,与点位的纬度分布没有必然的联系。因此,在小区域进行应变计算不会因为公式不同而导致结果的系统性差异。     

Determining the maximum degree of harmonic coefficients in geopotential models by Monte Carlo methods

Random errors for the harmonic coefficients of a geopotential model are generated from the matrix of normal equations by a parallel computer applying the Gibbs sampler. This leads to random values for the harmonic coefficients. They are transformed by nonlinear, quadratic transformations to random values for the square roots of degree variances, of mean squares of geoid undulations and gravity anomalies. The expected values of these quantities are not equal to the values of these quantities computed by the estimated harmonic coefficients, due to correlations and errors in the estimation. By hypothesis tests estimated harmonic coefficients distorted by correlations and errors are detected. Applying the tests to the geopotential model ITG-CHAMP01 of the Institute of Theoretical Geodesy in Bonn it is concluded that above the degree 62 the harmonic coefficients cannot add any information to the geopotential model.     

Spatial heterogeneity of the driving forces of cropland change in China

Along with the increasing problems of rapid popu-lation increase, resources scarcity and environment deterioration, the interaction between human devel-opment and natural environment changes, especially the Land-Use/Land-Cover, LUCC issue is becoming a frontier and hot field[1], in which investigation on the mechanisms of land use change is one of the three core issues. Deficient natural resources, in particular the shortage of cropland resource in China, are the important constraints to Ch…     

Optimized and robust experimental design: a non-linear application to EM sounding

Pragmatic experimental design requires objective consideration of several classes of information including the survey goals, the range of expected Earth responses, acquisition costs, instrumental capabilities, experimental conditions and logistics. In this study we consider the ramifications of maximizing model parameter resolution through non-linear experimental design. Global optimization theory is employed to examine and rank different EM sounding survey designs in terms of model resolution as defined by linearized inverse theory. By studying both theoretically optimal and heuristic experimental survey configurations for various quantities of data, it is shown that design optimization is critical for minimizing model variance estimates, and is particularly important when the inverse problem becomes nearly underdetermined. We introduce the concept of robustness so that survey designs are relatively immune to the presence of potential bias errors in important data. Bias may arise during practical measurement, or from designing a survey using an appropriate model.     

Probability Density Function Integrals And Small-Scale Mixing In Turbulent Plumes

We analyse cross-wind-integrated statistics of theconcentration field of a conserved scalar for pointand line sources in grid turbulence. In particular,using wind-tunnel measurements we calculate thecross-wind integrated probability density function(pdf) for the scalar concentration. We then use thatquantity in the exact evolution equation for the pdfto calculate the cross-wind integrated mean of therate of dissipation of scalar variance, conditional onthe scalar concentration. Much of the variation ofthese statistics with distance downstream is accountedfor by scaling with concentration, length and timescales based on the development of the mean plume.This scaling thus suggests some simple practicalparameterisations of these statistics in terms ofmean-field quantities. One of the motivations for thiswork is to find a simple parameterisation for thescalar dissipation that can be used for modellingchemical reactions in plumes.We also consider the cross-wind integral of the firstfew moments of the concentration field and show thatthe integration greatly simplifies the budgets forthese moments. Thus the first moment is just thedownstream flux of the scalar, which is constant. Thesecond moment budget provides a check on the meandissipation estimated directly from the pdf evolutionequation.