Scaling of response spectrum and duration for aftershocks

Aftershocks have the potential to cause collapse of a structure that has been already damaged by the preceding main shock. Seismic safety of a structure should therefore be ascertained through a damage analysis using the anticipated main shock and few larger-aftershock motions. Simulation of aftershock motions needs characterization of the seismic hazard due to aftershocks, and therefore it will be useful to develop a conditional scaling model that can predict the response spectrum of an anticipated aftershock motion consistent with the design spectrum of the main shock motion anticipated at the same station. In this study an attempt is made to develop a conditional scaling model for the pseudo spectral velocity spectrum via linear regression analysis on the aftershock and main shock recordings for the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake. It is shown that it may be possible to obtain a simpler and approximate version of the conditional model from an unconditional model. Damage-causing potential of a ground motion also depends on its strong motion duration (SMD) and therefore a conditional scaling model is developed for SMD of the aftershock motion in several narrow frequency-bands. The model is developed for the larger-aftershock motions and it is shown that a reasonable replacement of such a model may be obtainable directly from an unconditional model. Finally, a simple weighted averaging scheme is proposed to obtain the composite SMD from the SMDs for different frequency bands by using the pseudo spectral acceleration spectrum of the motion.     

新疆中强地震序列特征参数与主震震级的统计关系

系统分析了1970~2007年间新疆境内70个5级以上地震序列的余震持续时间和余震区长轴与主震震级的统计关系,以及主震破裂方式对余震时空特征参数的影响。研究结果表明,新疆及分区地震带余震持续时间和余震区长轴分别与主震震级弱相关,主震震级较低时两者关系离散,震级较高时则呈线性增强。不同的地震带这种线性关系存在差异,对于相同的主震震级,天山地震带余震持续时间一般大于西昆仑地震带,而余震区长轴前者小于后者。新疆地区主震破裂方式对余震的持续时间影响不大,但对余震区长轴影响较大,走滑型主震余震区长轴一般大于逆断型地震。     

Preliminary study on aftershock decay rate of the 2013 Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake

We obtained a catalog of early aftershocks of the 2013 Lushan earthquake by examining waveform from a nearby station MDS which is 30.2 km far away from the epicenter, and then we analyzed the relation between aftershock rate and time. We used time-window ratio method to identify aftershocks from continuous waveform data and compare the result with the catalog provided by China Earthquake Networks Center （CENC）. As expected, a significant amount of earthquakes is missing in CENC catalog in the 24 h after the main shock. Moreover, we observed a steady seismicity rate of aftershocks nearly in the first 10,000 s before an obvious power-law decay of aftershock activity. We consider this distinct early stage which does not fit the Omori law with a constant p （p - 1） value as early aftershock deficiency （EAD）, as proposed by previous studies. Our study suggests that the main shock rupture process is different from aftershocks＇ processes, and EAD can vary in different cases as compared to earthquakes of strike-slip mechanism in California.     

基于应力变化的余震预测研究综述

本文综述了近期基于应力变化的余震预测研究进展。从静态库仑应力触发角度对余震活动进行研究主要有两方面内容:一是集中于对主震触发余震机制的讨论;二是通过库仑应力变化分布区域与实际余震空间分布区域进行定性对比分析,并认为库仑应力变化为正的区域有利于余震的发生,而这正是余震活动与应力变化高度相关的重要证据。基于应力变化的余震预测研究的一项重要内容是建立在速率-状态依从摩擦定律基础之上的余震活动率研究,即将余震活动作为一系列独立的成核事件,从断层滑动触发地震的角度出发,结合静态库仑应力计算得到余震活动率,进而得到余震数量。余震活动是与断层面上的剪切应力变化相关联的,余震活动率受应力扰动幅度、应力加载速率、断层基本物理特性及背景地震活动率等的影响。考虑到“余震激发余震”的特点,ETAS 模型与静态库仑应力变化相结合的研究方法提供了一条统计学与物理学方法(应力变化)相结合、能更完整地刻画余震活动特征的可能途径。     

地震的"序列归属"问题与ETAS模型——以唐山序列为例

历史上发生过强震地区的余震活动可能持续较长时间,而余震序列在何时可被看作正常的"背景地震活动",即"序列归属"问题在地球动力学和地震物理中有重要意义.时-空"传染型余震序列"(ETAS)模型可分离"背景"地震和"丛集"地震,并用概率形式表示作为相应事件的可能性,为考察此问题提供了可能.本文以1976年唐山M_S7.8地震序列为例,对唐山地区1970年以来的M_L4.0以上地震进行了时-空ETAS模型拟合,并以2010年以来发生的3次M_S4.0以上地震为例讨论了它们的"序列归属"问题.研究结果显示,3次M_S4.0以上地震的背景地震概率分别为0.72、0.88和0.76,表明它们作为1976年唐山M_S7.8的余震的可能性较低,更可能为背景地震.     

1998~2003年伽师三次不同类型Ms6级地震震源破裂过程及短期内余震活动特征

利用大量远场观测地震图反演了新疆伽师地区三次不同机制类型M_s6级地震的破裂过程.结果表明,1998年8月2日M_s6.1级地震破裂尺度小,破裂过程简单,最大滑动量为12 cm,主破裂过程持续时间为8 s.1998年8月27日M_s6.5地震破裂过程的空间分布反映出双侧破裂特征,主破裂过程在前13 s基本完成,最大滑动量为63 cm,破裂面上起始破裂点两侧的滑动矢量方向不同.2003年2月24日M_s6.8地震的破裂过程最为复杂,震源时间函数由两次上升时间组成,破裂一共持续了32 s,最大滑动量为32 cm.研究表明,余震主要发生在主震破裂图像中大滑动量区域的外围或滑动量变化梯度较大的区域,主震后短期内发生的余震震源机制解也与破裂面上断层的错动方向一致,表明余震的位置和机制与主震破裂所引起的应力重新分布有关.     

汶川地震余震序列的地震各向异性

利用2008年5月12日汶川地震震源区及周边地震台站记录的余震序列资料,使用剪切波分裂系统分析法,分析了汶川地震发震构造龙门山断裂带及周边地区的地壳各向异性特征,推断了地壳最大主压应力方向及空间分布特征.研究结果表明：大致以安县为界,位于龙门山北东段的台站快剪切波的偏振方向为北东向,与断裂带走向一致;而位于龙门山西南段的台站快剪切波的偏振方向为北西向,与断裂带走向垂直;这个特征同样揭示出龙门山断裂带西南段逆冲、北东段带有明显走滑性质的特征.研究还显示,靠近龙门山与鲜水河、安宁河小江断裂交汇区附近的台站快剪切波的偏振方向表现比较离散,这可能是由震源区局部的复杂地质构造引起,与该地区复杂的主压应力方向特点一致.     

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment I: numerical testing of methodological features

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA, Wiemer, Geoph Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000), provided for California within the frame of the STEP project, is based on a methodology, two features of which are addressed in detail: (1) the parameters of Omori’s law and (2) application of attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity exceedence probability. Concerning the first point, we perform a simple parametric study. We assume the generalized Omori’s law by Shcherbakov et al. (Geoph Res Lett 31:L11613, 2004), in which characteristic time c scales with aftershock magnitude. The study shows that, among all the parameters, the hazard is most sensitive to the choice of m* (controlling the overall aftershock productivity) and least sensitive to the scaling of c. We also conclude that the hazard is mainly due to very early (less than 1 day) aftershocks. As regards the second point, we employ various attenuation relations from different tectonic areas to study their effect on the hazard analysis. We conclude that the resulting variations are relatively large, comparable to those obtained for varying m*.     

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment II: application of strong ground motion simulations

Probabilistic aftershock hazard assessment (PAHA) has been introduced by Wiemer (Geophys Res Lett 27:3405–3408, 2000). The method, in its original form, utilizes attenuation relations in evaluating peak ground velocity (PGV) exceedence probability. We substitute the attenuation relations together with their uncertainties by strong ground motion simulations for a set of scenarios. The main advantage of such an approach is that the simulations account for specific details of the aftershock source effects (faulting style, slip distribution, position of the nucleation point, etc.). Mean PGVs and their standard deviations are retrieved from the simulation results obtained by the new hybrid k-squared source model, and they are used for the PAHA analysis at a station under study. The model chosen for the testing purposes is inspired by the Izmit A25 aftershock (M _w  = 5.8) that occurred 26 days after the mainshock. The PAHA maps are compared with (1) those obtained by the use of attenuation relations and (2) the peak values of ten selected strong-motion recordings written by the aftershock at epicentral distances <50 km. We conclude that, although the overall hazard decay with increasing fault distance is similar, the PAHA maps obtained by the use of simulations exhibit remanent radiation pattern effect and prolongation in the strike direction due to the directivity effect pronounced for some of the scenarios. As regard the comparison with real data, we conclude that the PAHA maps agree with observed peak values due to appropriate attenuation model adopted in the analysis.     

科里奥利力对断层作用的统计研究

首先给出了分解到已知断层面法向和切向上的断层错动科里奥利应力(简称为科里奥利法向应力和切向应力)表达式,然后从哈佛大学矩心矩张量目录中选取主余震资料进行分析,按断层分类研究了科里奥利法向应力和主震震级与其最大余震震级差及主震地震矩与余震地震矩总和之差的折合矩震级间的关系.研究结果显示:地震断层错动过程中虽然产生了使断层两盘相互拉离(或挤压)的科里奥利法向应力,它降低(或增加)了断层错动时断层面上的摩擦阻力,但是应力量值太小(科里奥利法向应力估计最大不到0.1MPa,即不到一个大气压),不足以对断层错动及主震能量释放产生影响,从而影响余震的最大震级和总体水平.