川东北长兴组—飞仙关组古原油成藏的孔隙度门限

近年来,在四川盆地二叠系、三叠系海相碳酸盐岩层系中发现了如普光、龙岗、元坝等多个大中型、高孔高渗气田,且天然气主要为古油藏原油裂解气.在油源充足的条件下,孔隙度成为了控制古原油成藏的关键因素,讨论古原油充注的孔隙度门限,尤其对于致密碳酸盐岩储层是否发生古原油的聚集具有指导意义.川东北地区长兴组-飞仙关组礁滩相储层发现了大量的固体沥青,岩石薄片镜下观察到这些固体沥青主要分布于亮晶鲕粒灰岩的粒间孔隙中、结晶白云岩的晶间孔中以及残余鲕粒白云岩的铸模孔中,极少发现沥青充填之后的胶结物.本研究定量统计了沥青含量与现今面孔隙度来恢复视古孔隙度,分别讨论现今面孔隙度、视古孔隙度与沥青含量的关系,确定了视古孔隙度门限,最后经过压实作用校正得到了古原油成藏的孔隙度门限.研究结果揭示,沥青含量与现今面孔隙度无线性关系.而与视古孔隙度有着较明显的正相关关系,当视古孔隙度大于一定值时,沥青含量显著增加;川东北长兴组-飞仙关组碳酸盐岩储层古原油成藏的孔隙度门限值为6.4％～7.4％(平均6.8％).     

斑点抑制与多分辨率拓扑分析相结合的SAR图像河流水体提取

针对由于斑点噪声和建筑遮挡造成的高分SAR图像河流水体提取的不连续问题,本文提出一种结合自适应斑点抑制和多分辨率拓扑分析的河流水体提取方法。首先,在斑点抑制各向异性扩散中引入Beta度量以实现SAR图像的自适应滤波;其次,利用局部阈值分割和连通域标识对去噪图像中的河流水体段进行快速提取;然后,以河流水体段的最小外接凸多边形为对象构建高斯金字塔,并由此进行多分辨率拓扑分析来获得河流间断点信息;最后,由区域生长策略逐层地对间断点进行判别,实现相邻河流水体段的自动连接。采用TerraSAR-X和GF-3高分SAR图像验证提出的方法。结果表明,该方法可有效地提取完整河流水体。对多幅SAR图像提取结果的定性和定量评价验证了提出方法的有效性与稳健性。     

珠江磨刀门河口潮波振幅梯度与上下游动力边界的关系异变研究

强人类活动目前已经成为河口演变的主要动力。阐明流量驱动下河控型河口潮波传播演变过程及机制,对河口治理及人类活动的影响评价具有重要指导意义。以珠江磨刀门河口为例,研究了径潮动力阶段性演变特征。采用流量驱动的R_TIDE数据驱动模型探究了该区潮波振幅梯度和上下游动力边界(即上游流量和口门振幅)关系的变化规律。结果表明,在强人类活动影响下,各潮位站M₂分潮振幅明显上升(三灶站除外),且具有季节性差异和阶段性变化,灯笼山-马口河段的M₂分潮振幅沿程平均增大约0.07 m,河段潮波振幅梯度平均增大约4.61×10^–6 m^–1。研究潮波振幅梯度与上下游动力边界的阈值的关系表明,阈值效应主要出现在甘竹-马口河段。在强人类活动影响下,潮波振幅梯度阈值增大,相应的流量阈值增大,而振幅阈值基本不变。在达到振幅阈值之前,由于底床摩擦效应,大潮振幅衰减效应大于小潮,而在超过振幅阈值后,地形辐聚效应成为影响潮波振幅梯度变化的主要因素,大潮振幅衰减效应小于小潮。阈值的变化主要与流量、地形、摩擦等多因子耦合作用有关,当地形辐聚效应和底床摩擦效应达到平衡时,潮波振幅梯度与上下游动力边界之间则出现阈值效应。该现象的发现可为河口海岸防灾减灾和水资源管理等实际问题提供重要理论支撑。     

新型城镇化对旅游效率的空间溢出与门槛效应

以2001—2019年中国30个省（市、区）为研究样本,利用熵值法和Bootstrap-DEA模型对其新型城镇化水平和旅游效率进行测度,继而借助双变量LISA模型考察二者的空间关联特征,并采用空间杜宾模型和门槛模型等方法,探析新型城镇化对旅游效率的空间效应及其动态非线性影响。研究表明：1）研究期内中国新型城镇化水平和旅游效率呈现不同程度的波动提升态势,中、西部地区增幅最大;两者分别呈现东部＞中部＞西部＞东北部以及中部＞东部＞西部＞东北部的空间分异特征。2）新型城镇化和旅游效率存在正向空间关联性,局部空间聚类以H-H型、L-L型为主;新型城镇化对旅游效率具有正向直接效应与负向空间溢出效应。3）在旅游产业地位这一门槛变量的作用下,新型城镇化对旅游效率的正向影响存在双重门槛特征。     

遗传门限自回归模型在气象时间序列预测中的应用

提出了建立门限自回归模型（TAR）的一套简便通用的方法。用基于实码的改进遗传算法，可同时优化门限值和自回归系数，解决了TAR建模过程所涉及的大量复杂寻优工作这一难题，为TAR模型在气象预测中的广泛应用提供了有力工具。实例计算的结果说明：通过门限值的控制作用，TAR模型可有效地利用气象时序资料所隐含的时序分段相依性这一重要信息，限制了模型误差，保证了TAR模型预测性能的稳健性，提高了预测精度。该方法具有通用性，在各种气象非线性时序预测中具有广泛的实用价值。     

A climate-informed,ecosystem approach to fisheries management

This paper outlines the benefits of using the framework for an ecosystem approach to fisheries management (EAFM) for dealing with the inevitable yet unclear impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on coastal fisheries. With a focus on the Asia-Pacific region, it summarizes the projected biological and socio-economic effects of increased emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) for coastal fisheries and illustrates how all the important dimensions of climate change and ocean acidification can be integrated into the steps involved in the EAFM planning process. The activities required to harness the full potential of an EAFM as an adaptation to climate change and ocean acidification are also described, including: provision of the necessary expertise to inform all stakeholders about the risks to fish habitats, fish stocks and catches due to climate change; promotion of trans-disciplinary collaboration; facilitating the participation of all key stakeholders; monitoring the wider fisheries system for climate impacts; and enhancing resources and capacity to implement an EAFM. By channeling some of the resources available to the Asia-Pacific region to adapt to climate change into an EAFM, developing countries will not only build resilience to the ecological and fisheries effects of climate change, they will also help address the habitat degradation and overfishing presently reducing the productivity of coastal fisheries.     

基于L波段探空的云区边界识别改进算法

利用气象业务中使用的L波段探空数据和毫米波云雷达观测资料,分析探空相对湿度在入云和出云时的变化规律,提出一种基于探空相对湿度阈值与梯度相结合的云区边界识别改进算法,并利用云雷达观测数据对算法识别结果进行验证.利用北京市南郊观象台2019年1—6月层状云样本验证分析,结果表明:改进算法相比相对湿度阈值法,对云区边界识别更...     

基于特征匹配的月球撞击坑自动提取研究

本文提出了一种基于特征匹配的撞击坑自动提取算法,该算法以单个撞击坑的5个典型影像特征为依据,用最大类间方差法将月面影像分割为暗区、亮区和背景3类;再使用区域生长将离散点聚合,通过特征匹配找出属于同一撞击坑的暗区与亮区,并利用八方向Sobel算子获取边缘控制点并拟合边缘。经过"嫦娥一号"和"嫦娥二号"部分遥感影像的验证,该算法对于纬度较高地区的月面影像提取效果较好,已成功应用到数字月球平台进行全月展示。     

Analyse statistique des séquences sèches dans un bassin du nord de la Tunisie / Statistical analysis of dry events in a northern Tunisian basin

Abstract

A comparative statistical study of dry events during the rainy season is presented. In particular, we carried out statistical processing of the daily records of raingauges in the downstream basin of Lake Ichkeul, in the north of Tunisia. The climate is characterized by a rainy season lasting from the autumn until spring. The Poisson distribution was applied to describe the number of rainfall events, and negative binomial distribution was applied for the length of the dry events, in the rainy season. Since rainfall events are shorter, their duration follows a geometrical distribution, as theoretically required. For planning purposes, the longest seasonal dry spells associated with the various statistical recurrence periods are derived on the basis of the fitted GEV functions. A hydrological year starts at the beginning of the first rainfall event of a given season. The length of hydrological year is determined by the time interval between the start dates of two subsequent rainy seasons. The beginning of the hydrological year occurs on average toward mid-September, but the probability of it occurring before 15 September exceeds 40%. Spatial analysis of dry events is also done. A significant fraction of the dry events occurred for at least two stations simultaneously. Furthermore, 4.5% of the dry events have been observed at all three stations. The analysis of the dry events gives an alternative method to examine the dry spell phenomenon.     

Empirical models of rain-spells characteristics – A case study of a Mediterranean-arid climatic transect

Environmental (geomorphological, hydrological and ecological) processes are controlled by rainfall, particularly in the Mediterranean, semi-arid and arid regions. Rainfall was analyzed using the concept of rain-spells, i.e., a period of successive rain days preceded and followed by at least one day without rainfall. Daily data from 13 stations along a climatic transect extending from the Judean Mountains with a Mediterranean climate to the Dead Sea arid region in Israel were studied. Rain-spell characteristics (number, yield and duration), based on these data, are presented for different rainfall thresholds, which might be used for different environmental processes such as rock weathering, soil organic matter dynamics, landslides, overland flow and floods and soil erosion. Three estimation models have been developed in order to predict the mean annual Number of Rain-Spells (NRS), mean Rain-Spell Yield (RSY), and mean Rain-Spell Duration (RSD) for the mean annual rainfall and for any given rainfall threshold. These models can be used for current climatic conditions and for scenarios in which the rainfall total changes.