How good is good? Human values and Europe's proposed Marine Strategy Directive

The adoption of the proposed European Marine Strategy Directive is an opportunity for a comprehensive policy for protecting, improving and sustainably using Europe's environmentally degraded seas. It calls for an ecosystem-based approach to management where humans are regarded as a key system component. Although the proposed wording has been the subject of fierce debate, the central policy goal remains achieving "Good Environmental Status". The interpretation of "good" is key to implementation and relates to human values and worldviews. We demonstrate how these vary widely across Europe. Solution of fundamental considerations such as the assignation of reference states, the balance between precautionary and evidence-based action, the degree of subsidiarity, and conservation strategies including marine protected areas, will ultimately depend upon public understanding, involvement in and support for the Directive. The social element, critical to effective adaptive management, requires greater attention within the context of a regional seas geographical framework.     

强随机噪声条件下时窗类型局部线性化对TFPF技术的影响

为了更广泛地应用时频峰值滤波方法消减地震勘探记录中强随机噪声,本文比较详细地探讨了该方法在应用时需要处理的时窗选取、一个时窗内局部线性化等主要基础技术问题.经过时变时窗的仿真计算,运用多项指标比较,包括整体背景强弱、振幅谱、信噪比、均方误差、有效子波波峰波谷幅值、畸变程度,综合评价出（L₀+L_x）时窗滤波的效果较理想.对于三角波这类简单类型的周期波,其时频峰值滤波效果与边线段平均曲率变化、时窗长度等条件有关,即三角波边线段平均曲率越大,滤波结果的均方误差越大;另外,边线段平均曲率增大时,选取的时窗长度有变小的趋势.总之,在地震勘探中应用时频峰值滤波方法消减强随机噪声时,一方面要合理地选取时窗参数,另一方面时窗参数又不能变化过大,以避免对有效子波波形产生畸变影响.     

Comparative analysis of fuzzy inference systems for water consumption time series prediction

Two types of fuzzy inference systems (FIS) are used for predicting municipal water consumption time series. The FISs used include an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and a Mamdani fuzzy inference systems (MFIS). The prediction models are constructed based on the combination of the antecedent values of water consumptions. The performance of ANFIS and MFIS models in training and testing phases are compared with the observations and the best fit model is identified according to the selected performance criteria. The results demonstrated that the ANFIS model is superior to MFIS models and can be successfully applied for prediction of water consumption time series.     

Variability in rainfall threshold for debris flow after the Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan, China

The purpose of this study is to analyze variability in rainfall threshold for debris flow （critical rainfall for debris flow triggering） after the ML 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan in 1999. Two study sites with different geological conditions were surveyed in the earthquake area. Streambed surveys were conducted to continuously monitor debris flows between 1999 and 2006. During the 7-year study period, every debris flow event was identified, and the streambed characterized. Results show that the rainfall threshold for debris flow was remarkably lower just after the Chi-Chi Earthquake, but gradually recovered. To date, this rainfall threshold is still lower than the original level prior to the earthquake. This variability in rainfall threshold is closely related to the mount of sediment material in the initiation area of debris flow, which increased rapidly due to landslides resulting from the earthquake. With the increase in sediment material, the rainfall threshold was lowered severely during the first year following the Chi-Chi earthquake. However, heavy rainfalls mobilized the sediment material, causing debris flows and transporting sediment downstream. With the decrease in sediment material, the rainfall threshold recovered gradually over time. Furthermore, debris flows occurred only in the subbasins that had sufficient sediment material to cause significant movement. Hence, these results confirm that the sediment material in the initiation area of debris flow is a crucial component of the rainfall threshold for debris flow.     

孔隙裂隙双重介质的三维逾渗数值模拟研究

基于三维孔隙介质的逾渗模型,首次把裂隙这一重要的渗透通道引入到三维逾渗研究中,提出了孔隙裂隙三维逾渗的研究方法,并建立了孔隙裂隙双重介质三维逾渗模型,这一模型的建立使得逾渗理论的研究成果可以被应用到更多的领域中,如煤体、岩体等。基于VC++6.0开发了孔隙裂隙双重介质三维逾渗模拟软件,模拟研究了双重介质的逾渗规律,模拟研究表明：裂隙的存在在很大程度上提高了介质的逾渗概率,使孔隙裂隙双重介质的逾渗规律明显不同于孔隙介质;随孔隙率、裂隙分形维数、裂隙数量分布初值由小到大逐渐增长,必然发生逾渗转变的自然现象。     

振动导致黄河口粉质土性质与起动流速的变化

通过现场试验,研究模拟波浪振动导致的黄河口海床表层粉质土重度与强度的变化;通过室内试验,研究了黄河口海床土重度、强度、中值粒径、起动流速随振动能量的变化;将起动流速的试验测试结果与代表性经验公式计算值进行了比较。发现振动导致黄河口粉质土物理力学指标呈现周期性的变化,进而引起起动流速相应的变化;起动流速不仅与土体重度、粒径、强度有关,还与土体承受的波浪荷载振动能量有密切关系;起动流速经验公式计算结果与试验测试值不吻合。     

科尔沁沙地奈曼旗近5年来风况及合成输沙势

应用奈曼沙漠化研究站1998-2002年的气象资料, 统计分析了奈曼旗近5a来的风况特征和输沙势。结果表明: ①研究区3~5月起沙风发生频数最高, 占全年起沙风的38%~58%; 平均风速和最大风速值最大, 分别为6.0~7.5m·s^-1和9.5~16.9m·s^-1。该风况特征与地表冻融、裸露、干旱疏松相耦合, 形成了区内的风沙活动期。②在风沙活动期内, 风环境基本为锐双峰风况, 西北风居主导地位, 频数占54%; 南风和西南风次之, 频数占38%。③在风沙活动期内, 研究区属于高风能环境, 合成输沙势RDP为66.3VU(风速以m·s^-1为单位), 合成输沙方向RDD为ESE113°。     

地震数据去噪中的小波方法

地震资料去噪是地震数据处理中是必不可少的步骤,随着地震勘探的进步和勘探目的层加深,对地震资料的信噪比和分辨率提出了越来越高的要求.小波分析作为一个新兴的数学方法在地震资料去噪中也有巨大的潜力.本文从小波去噪的特点出发,介绍了小波分频和小波域阈值去噪的特点,并详细总结了地震资料去噪中的小波方法,主要有面波的压制和随机噪声的衰减.最后简要叙述了地震资料小波去噪的一些问题和发展.     

干旱区植被生态需水理论研究进展

综述了植被生态需水的概念及其内涵,评价了植被生态需水的主要研究理论——生态适宜性理论、系统阈值理论、水文循环水量平衡理论、农业气象学理论,评析了各种理论在实践应用中的优缺点。指出在未来的植被生态需水研究中应加强生态体系健康标准建立、定量评价指标体系的数值模拟模型构建,研究中还必须注重植被生态需水的时空特性,充分利用“3S”技术手段和先进的科学试验设备,全方位、多角度获取不同研究区域的基础信息,为建立植被生态需水理论提供可靠的数据支撑。