Navigating climate crises in the Great Barrier Reef

A dramatic escalation of extreme climate events is challenging the capacity of environmental governance regimes to sustain and improve ecosystem outcomes. It has been argued that actors within adaptive governance regimes can help to steer environmental systems toward sustainability in times of crisis. Yet there is little empirical evidence of how acute climate crises are navigated by actors operating within adaptive governance regimes, and the factors that influence their responses. Here, we qualitatively assessed the actions key governance actors took in response to back-to-back mass coral bleaching – an extreme climate event – of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 and 2017, and explored their perceptions of barriers and catalysts to these responses. This research was, in part, a product of collaboration and knowledge co-production with Great Barrier Reef governance actors aimed at improving responses to climate crises in the region. We found five major categories of activity that actors engaged with in the wake of recurrent mass coral bleaching: assessing the scale and extent of bleaching, sharing information, communicating bleaching to the public, building local resilience, and addressing global threats. These actions were both catalyzed and hindered by a range of factors that fall within different domains of adaptive capacity; such as assets, social organization, and agency. We discuss the implications of our findings as they relate to existing research on adaptive capacity and adaptive governance. We conclude by coalescing insights from our interviews and a participant engagement process to highlight four key ways in which the ability of governance actors, and the Great Barrier Reef governance regime more broadly, can be better prepared for, and more effectively respond to extreme climate events. Our research provides empirical insight into how crises are experienced by governance actors in a large-scale environmental system, potentially providing lessons for similar systems across the globe.     

Relationship between Soil＇s Seasonal Freezing Process and Daily Accumulative Hourly Temperature in Northern Xinjiang Region

传统的度日因子模型很难分辨在结冻期土壤每日结冻和解冻的过程,而日小时积温可以区分正积温和负积温对土壤冻结过程的影响.利用北疆地区1951-2010年气象站数据和决策树算法,分析计算日小时积温及表层5cm和10cm土壤冻结状态数据及日小时积温对季节性冻土冻结现象的影响.结果表明：在北疆范围年小时正积温以每年平均160℃增长,而年小时负积温以每年平均153℃减少.季节性冻土发生冻结现象所需的临界值分布与北疆地区气候和土壤分布基本一致,但仍存在空间差异性.北疆地区5cm土壤结冻所需的日小时负积温为-50℃以下,而5cm到10cm土壤结冻所需日小时负积温的平均值差值为-15℃左右.与日最低气温和日平均气温作为土壤结冻判据相比,日小时积温临界值作为判据可获得较高的精确度.在昌吉地区和阿勒泰地区冻土的平均深度随着日小时负积温临界值的增加而减少.     

模数转换器对导航信号的影响分析及最优量化参数选择方法设计

结合导航信号的具体物理模型,从信息量和信噪比两个角度入手,对ADC前后导航信号所含有效信息量及信噪比变化规律进行推导计算。从理论上证明2~3 bit量化已能满足一般接收机正常工作的需要,在此基础上归纳不同的量化门限选择对信号信噪比的不同影响,发现在特定的干扰下,合理地选取量化门限反而会增加信号的信噪比这一反常规现象。最后提出一种合理选取量化门限的方法,以获得最优的信噪比增益,并进行了试验仿真的验证,对接收机前端设计具有一定的启发意义。     

小波阈值消噪方法分析及应用

详细介绍了小波阈值消噪中阈值函数的选取和阈值的具体估计方法,并对阈值函数的选取进行了比较分析,以四川二滩大坝变形监测数据消噪前后的信噪比和均方根误差两个指标,对各种阈值方法进行了对比分析。理论分析、应用实例的结果表明,几乎硬阈值方法比Garrote阈值方法能更好地恢复被噪声湮没的局部变形信息。     

Contourlet域相关和阈值衰减联合去噪方法及其在地震资料处理中的应用

针对常规方法不能很好地压制复杂地质条件下的低信噪比地震记录中的随机噪声的问题,提出了Contourlet域相关和阈值衰减联合去噪方法（CTCT）。首先,采用Contourlet分解地震资料,对得到的尺度-方向分量进行倾角扫描,通过相关叠加压制随机噪声;然后,对相干加强处理后的剩余随机噪声采用非线性阈值进一步衰减。模型算例及实例结果表明,此方法压制随机干扰的效果要优于传统方法,一定程度上改善了常规滤波方法在压制噪声时对有效波的影响。     

载波相位差分接收机自主完好性监测研究

首先提出了浮点变换完全去相关法,该方法能够在单历元动态确定整周模糊度。研究了基于载波相位测量的完好性监测方法。利用最小二乘残差构造统计检验量,对整周模糊度进行检测。分析了定位误差保护限与卫星构型、漏警概率的关系。实测数据表明,整周模糊度在单历元动态求解的成功率为100%,增加1颗卫星将使垂直定位误差保护限减少约0.2 m,统计检验量检测周跳的正确率为100%。     

GPS非差相位动态定位中Sage自适应滤波算法的研究及软件实现

介绍了GPS非差定位中的卡尔曼滤波模型,详细分析了滤波发散的原因.研究并给出了一种改进的自适应滤波,在此基础上编制了相应的软件,结合实例分析了该方法的有效性.     

Responding to change: Using scenarios to understand how socioeconomic factors may influence amplifying or dampening exploitation feedbacks among Tanzanian fishers

Environmental change often requires societies to adapt. In some instances, these adaptations can create feedbacks that amplify the change. Alternatively, other adaptations may dampen the change. We used semi-structured interviews with 240 fishers from nine Tanzanian coastal communities to explore responses to four hypothetical scenarios of increasingly severe declines in their average catch (10%, 20%, 30% and 50%). Overall, a higher proportion of fishers said they would respond to decline using amplifying adaptations (such as fishing harder) than dampening adaptations (such as reducing effort), particularly in the scenarios with lower levels of decline. We used a redundancy analysis to explore whether certain types of responses were related to the fishers’ socioeconomic characteristics. Fishers that would employ amplifying responses had greater economic wealth but lacked options. Fishers who would adopt dampening responses possessed characteristics associated with having livelihood options. Fishers who would adopt neither amplifying nor dampening responses were less likely to belong to community groups and sold the largest proportion of their catch. This study provides novel contributions by differentiating aspects of adaptive capacity that will amplify versus dampen environmental change and by highlighting what the resource users’ themselves say regarding responding to environmental change. Although direct policy application is limited by the study's hypothetical scenario nature, it provides a good beginning to incorporating resource users’ voices into such policy discussions.     

Common property rights, adaptive capacity, and response to forest disturbance

This paper reports the results of a statistical analysis which measures the effects of adaptive capacity on forest conditions in response to a prior disturbance. Particular emphasis is placed on common property rights as a form of institutional adaptive capacity. Common property rights are delineated in terms of rights of access, withdrawal, management, exclusion, and alienation. Using statistical analysis of 326 forest user groups from 13 countries in the database of the International Forestry Resources and Institutions (IFRI) program, the effects on user group rankings of forest conditions are estimated with a probability model. Overall, the results indicate that user groups with more complete property rights are more likely to rank forest conditions favorably. However, the effects of property rights also depend on the level of other forms of adaptive capacity such as the organizational capacity of the group and the number of rival user groups.