S波段多普勒天气雷达非降水气象回波识别

在气象条件为晴空或有云但无降水的情况下,在雷达站附近经常可观测到大面积的非降水气象回波,这些回波对定量估测降水和雷达资料同化效果产生重要影响。为了有效识别这些非降水回波,该文发展了基于模糊逻辑识别和回波分块的非降水气象回波识别算法 (NPMDA)。该文首先利用地面和卫星资料为标准,提出了非降水回波的确定标准,并利用北京SA雷达,对非降水气象回波特性进行了统计分析,得到了隶属函数。在非降水回波识别时首先采用SCIT算法将回波组合成片,然后对整个PPI进行初步的判断。对不能初步判断为降水的PPI,采用模糊逻辑的方法计算成片回波的属性值,依据成片回波的属性值得到片内回波逐点识别时的阈值,从而实现了回波的动态阈值识别。结果表明:对大部分非降水气象回波识别效果较好,对较强降水回波误判较少,弱降水回波有时会出现一定的误判。与NCAR使用的ICADA方法相比,NPMDA方法能明显提高非降水回波的识别率,减少降水回波的误判率。     

A conceptual framework for analysing adaptive capacity and multi-level learning processes in resource governance regimes

Governance failures are at the origin of many resource management problems. In particular climate change and the concomitant increase of extreme weather events has exposed the inability of current governance regimes to deal with present and future challenges. Still our knowledge about resource governance regimes and how they change is quite limited. This paper develops a conceptual framework addressing the dynamics and adaptive capacity of resource governance regimes as multi-level learning processes. The influence of formal and informal institutions, the role of state and non-state actors, the nature of multi-level interactions and the relative importance of bureaucratic hierarchies, markets and networks are identified as major structural characteristics of governance regimes. Change is conceptualized as social and societal learning that proceeds in a stepwise fashion moving from single to double to triple loop learning. Informal networks are considered to play a crucial role in such learning processes. The framework supports flexible and context sensitive analysis without being case study specific.First empirical evidence from water governance supports the assumptions made on the dynamics of governance regimes and the usefulness of the chosen approach. More complex and diverse governance regimes have a higher adaptive capacity. However, it is still an open question how to overcome the state of single-loop learning that seem to characterize many attempts to adapt to climate change. Only further development and application of shared conceptual frameworks taking into account the real complexity of governance regimes can generate the knowledge base needed to advance current understanding to a state that allows giving meaningful policy advice.     

A three-tiered approach to participatory vulnerability assessment in the Solomon Islands

Greater recognition of the seriousness of global environmental change has led to an increase in research that assesses the vulnerability of households, communities and regions to changing environmental or economic conditions. So far, however, there has been relatively little attention given to how assessments can be conducted in ways that help build capacity for local communities to understand and find their own solutions to their problems. This paper reports on an approach that was designed and used to work with a local grass roots organization in the Solomon Islands to promote inclusivity and participation in decision-making and to build the capacity of the organization to reduce the vulnerability of communities to drivers of change. The process involved working collaboratively with the organization and training its members to conduct vulnerability assessments with communities using participatory and deliberative methods. To make best use of the learning opportunities provided by the research process, specific periods for formal reflection were incorporated for the three key stakeholders involved: the primary researchers; research assistants; and community members. Overall, the approach: (1) promoted learning about the current situation in Kahua and encouraged deeper analysis of problems; (2) built capacity for communities to manage the challenges they were facing; and (3) fostered local ownership and responsibility for problems and set precedents for future participation in decision-making. While the local organization and the communities it serves still face significant challenges, the research approach set the scene for greater local participation and effort to maintain and enhance livelihoods and wellbeing. The outcomes highlight the need for greater emphasis on embedding participatory approaches in vulnerability assessments for communities to benefit fully from the process.     

Adaptive co-management and the paradox of learning

Much emphasis has been placed on the importance of learning to support collaborative environmental management and achieve sustainability under conditions of social–ecological change. Yet, on-going struggles to learn from experience and respond to complex social–ecological conditions reflect an emerging paradox. Despite widespread support of learning as a normative goal and process, core concepts, assumptions and approaches to learning have been applied in vague and sometimes uncritical ways. Greater specificity with respect to learning goals, approaches and outcomes is required. In response to this gap, we examine five dimensions of the learning paradox in the context of adaptive co-management, where the learning and linking functions of governance are stressed: (i) definitions of learning; (ii) learning goals and expectations; (iii) mechanisms by which learning takes place; (iv) questions regarding who is involved in the process of learning; and (v) the risks and ethical ambiguities faced by different actors expected to willingly participate in a learning process, whether formal or informal. Lessons from experience with a series of cases from the global North and South illustrate the implications of these dimensions. Resolving the dimensions of this learning paradox will require greater attention to capacity-building, recognition of the role of risk, and consideration of how incentives could be used to encourage learning. Further consideration of the role of power and marginality among groups participating in the learning process is also needed, as is more systematic evaluation to monitor and measure learning outcomes.     

Ternary forecast of heavy snowfall in the Honam area,Korea

The objective of this study is to improve the statistical modeling for the ternary forecast of heavy snowfall in the Honam area in Korea. The ternary forecast of heavy snowfall consists of one of three values, 0 for less than 50 mm, 1 for an advisory (50–150 mm), and 2 for a warning (more than 150 mm). For our study, the observed daily snow amounts and the numerical model outputs for 45 synoptic factors at 17 stations in the Honam area during 5 years (2001 to 2005) are used as observations and potential pre...     

Limits to scale invariance in alluvial rivers

Assumptions about fluvial processes and process–form relations are made in general models and in many site-specific applications. Many standard assumptions about reach-scale flow resistance, bed-material entrainment thresholds and transport rates, and downstream hydraulic geometry involve one or other of two types of scale invariance: a parameter (e.g. critical Shields number) has the same value in all rivers, or doubling one variable causes a fixed proportional change in another variable in all circumstances (e.g. power-law hydraulic geometry). However, rivers vary greatly in size, gradient, and bed material, and many geomorphologists regard particular types of river as distinctive. This review examines the tension between universal scaling assumptions and perceived distinctions between different types of river. It identifies limits to scale invariance and departures from simple scaling, and illustrates them using large data sets spanning a wide range of conditions. Scaling considerations and data analysis support the commonly made distinction between coarse-bed and fine-bed reaches, whose different transport regimes can be traced to the different settling-velocity scalings for coarse and fine grains. They also help identify two end-member sub-types: steep shallow coarse-bed ‘torrents’ with distinctive flow-resistance scaling and increased entrainment threshold, and very large, low-gradient ‘mega rivers’ with predominantly suspended load, subdued secondary circulation, and extensive backwater conditions. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Convergent development of experimental landforms with differing rainfall and substrate properties

Four runs of experimental landform development, with the same uplift rate, different rainfall intensity, and the same material of different permeability adjusted by the degree of compaction, showed complicated effects of rainfall and mound-forming material. In the run with more rainfall on less permeable material, low separated ridges developed in the uplifted area, because abundant overland flow promoted valley erosion and slope processes from early stages. In the run with less rainfall on less permeable material, valley incision proceeded mostly in major valleys where surface water converges. Canyons developed during early stages and later a high massive mountain emerged. The effect of rainfall difference, however, appeared completely opposite on more permeable material accompanied by lower shear strength. In the run with more rainfall on more permeable material, a massive mountain similar to that with less rainfall on less permeable material appeared, and low separated ridges appeared in the run with less rainfall on more permeable material as in the run with more rainfall on less permeable material. In the former case, similar amount of water available for Hortonian overland flow in early stages estimated from rainfall rate and permeability can explain the development of similar landforms. In the latter case, while abundant surface water with more rainfall on less permeable material made fluvial erosion active from early stages, the deficiency in surface water with less rainfall on more permeable material apparently attenuated fluvial erosion but possibly accentuated slope processes and slope failures by seepage water flow through more permeable material of low shear strength. The active erosion from early stages apparently resulted in the development of enduring similar low landforms later in the dynamic equilibrium stage. These experimental results indicate that similar landforms can emerge from different environmental and lithologic controls, and that process does not necessarily follow from form.     

Comparison of the return period for landslide-triggering rainfall events in Japan based on standardization of the rainfall period

The intensity of rainfall events with potential to cause landslides has varying temporal characteristics. In this study, the time at which the 72-h accumulated rainfall reached its maximum was used to standardize the period of rainfall measurement. The proposed standardization of the rainfall period was used in conjunction with the return level of rainfall intensity, obtained from intensity–duration–frequency curves, to investigate rainfall intensity anomalies associated with 10 hazardous rainfall events that triggered numerous landslides at the regional scale in Japan. These landslides included shallow landslides in volcanic and non-volcanic areas, as well as deep-seated landslides. The rainfall events that triggered the shallow landslides were divided into two types: downpours that repeatedly reached close to the 100-year return level within approximately 3–4 h, and accumulated rainfall that reached close to 200–400 mm over longer time intervals but within 72 h. Lithological differences seemed unrelated to the differences between the two types of shallow-landslide-triggering rainfall; however, precipitation >1000 mm was necessary to trigger deep-seated landslides. Although the characteristics of the hyetographs differed markedly among the landslide-triggering rainfall events, all the landslides could have been triggered when the mean rainfall intensity reached the 100-year rainfall level during the standardized period. Thus, the landslide trigger can be evaluated indirectly based on the increase in the return level of the mean rainfall intensity, which could provide a means for estimating the time of landslide occurrence.     

剪切-体积应变耦合的孔压增量模型试验

以南京细砂为对象,通过共振柱试验及应变控制的排水/不排水分级和单级加载循环三轴试验的系统性研究,建立了能够描述饱和砂土孔压增长规律的新模型。该模型遵循Martin和Byrne提出的基本理论框架,孔压的增长是由循环剪切作用下体积改变所引起的。提出的孔压模型属于应变控制的孔压增量模型。基于排水循环单级加载试验,通过引入体积门槛剪应变γ_(tv)的概念,以具有代表性的15周体应变(ξ_(vd))15为基准点,归准化体应变发展与循环剪应变之间的关系,建立了三参数的体应变增量模型及其参数标定方法。基于排水和不排水循环单级加载试验结果,揭示了体应变与孔压比之间的内在联系,进而导出回弹模量表达式。通过耦合新的体应变增量模型及回弹模量公式,建立了新的剪应变-体应变耦合的孔压增量模型。验证性试验表明,新的孔压增量模型的预测值与试验结果的吻合度较高。     

Bed sediment entrainment by streamflow: State of the science

In fluvial sedimentology, bed sediment entrainment by streamflow has a decisive role in controlling several fluvial processes. Owing to its huge practical importance, the subject has been painstakingly explored for over a century. However, a detailed understanding of the mechanism of the bed sediment entrainment phenomenon achieved hitherto is far from complete. The central theme of bed sediment entrainment is occupied by the sediment entrainment threshold, which varies enormously in its qualitative definition, identification and quantification encompassing a broad range of spatiotemporal scales. This article presents the state of the science of the entrainment of non‐cohesive bed sediments under a steady‐unidirectional streamflow. It begins with the diverse definitions and representations of the entrainment threshold criterion from both qualitative and quantitative perspectives, scrutinising its suitability and ambit of applicability. Then, the effects of energetic factors that drive the entrainment threshold criterion are critically appraised. The indispensable mechanisms of bed sediment entrainment, including the theoretical background and modelling strategies, the role of turbulent bursting phenomenon and the phenomenological perspective into the origin of the scaling laws of sediment entrainment, are explained. Throughout the article, special emphasis is given to the strengths and weaknesses of the current state of the science. In addition, a deliberate attempt is made to invoke the thought‐provoking ideas on the multifarious features of bed sediment entrainment. Finally, the innovative perspectives on the bed sediment entrainment are provided and the concluding remarks are made, elucidating the major challenges and suggesting the prospective ways to resolve them as a future scope of research.