可控源电磁场三维自适应矢量有限元正演模拟

本文实现了可控源电磁（CSEM）场三维自适应矢量有限元正演算法,该算法采用非结构四面体单元进行三维网格剖分,能够真实模拟地形起伏和复杂电性异常体.采用一次场和二次场分离的方式计算电磁场响应,能够有效解决有限元模拟中的源点奇异性,提高场源附近电磁场数值精度,其中一次场利用CSEM一维正演算法解析求得,二次场采用矢量有限元方法求得.并利用基于后验误差估计的自适应网格细化算法指导网格细化,以减少人为设计网格导致的误差.通过一维和三维模型的数值模拟,验证了本文算法的有效性：一维模型有限元解与解析解吻合得很好,电磁场振幅相对误差在1%左右,相位差整体小于1°;三维模型有限元解与有限体积解吻合得也很好.模拟了一个含三维倾斜板状异常体的可控源电磁响应,表明了本文算法模拟复杂地电结构电磁场的能力和有效性.

     

基于多道卷积信号盲分离的多次波自适应相减方法

本文将多次波自适应相减问题表示为一个多道卷积信号的盲分离问题.利用2D卷积核来表示预测多次波和实际多次波之间的差异,并采用分离出的一次波信号的非高斯性最大化作为优化目标,我们提出一种基于多道卷积信号盲分离的多次波自适应相减算法.为了求解上述非线性优化问题,所提方法将其转化为一个迭代线性优化问题,采用迭代最小二乘方法加以实现.由于采用了多道卷积信号盲分离模型,所提方法能够适应预测和真实多次波之间在时间及空间上的变化.通过对简单模型数据、Pluto数据和实际数据进行处理,验证了所提算法的有效性.     

基于结构自适应中值滤波器的随机噪声衰减方法

本文提出一种保护断层、裂缝等地层边缘特征的结构自适应中值滤波器,用于衰减地震资料中的随机噪声.基于地震反射同相轴局部呈线型结构的假设,采用梯度结构张量估计地层倾向,分析地层结构的规则程度,在此基础上引入地震剖面中线型和横向不连续性两种结构特征的置信度量.结构自适应中值滤波器根据这两种置信度量调整滤波器窗函数的尺度和形状,根据地层倾角调整滤波器窗函数的方向,从而使得滤波操作窗能够最佳匹配信号的局部结构特征.将本文方法用于合成和实际数据的处理,并与两种常用中值滤波方法进行对比,结果表明,该方法能够更好地解决地震剖面的随机噪声衰减和有效信号保真的问题,在增强反射同相轴的横向一致性的同时有效保持了剖面内的地层边缘和细节特征,显著改善了地震资料的品质.     

Demonstration and application of NMM‐based fractured porous medium flow model

In natural rock masses, the shapes of three‐dimensional (3‐D) blocks cut by arbitrary fracture networks may be very complex. Owing to the geometric complexity and difficulty of mesh discretization of 3‐D blocks and fracture facets, explicit consideration of fracture networks in flow analysis of fractured porous medium (FPM) is very challenging. Using the numerical manifold method based on independent covers (NMMIC), an FPM flow model was proposed that can deal with very complex 3‐D fracture networks. In this paper, the convergence of NMMIC was first demonstrated. The theoretical basis of the arbitrary refinement of computational meshes was proven. Moreover, three peculiarities of NMMIC meshes, that is, arbitrary shape, arbitrary connection, and arbitrary refinement of independent covers, were concluded. Finally, some two‐dimensional (2‐D) tunnel flow examples were analyzed and the numerical results were compared with the analytical results. 3‐D examples with complex fracture distributions were also analyzed. In addition, the computational scale of the developed program was tested by increasing the number of computational elements. The results show that our model can accurately analyze the groundwater flow of rocks surrounding tunnels with complex fracture distributions.     

Persistent rings in and around Jupiter’s anticyclones – Observations and theory

We present observations and theoretical calculations to derive the vertical structure of and secondary circulation in jovian vortices, a necessary piece of information to ultimately explain the red color in the annular ring inside Jupiter’s Oval BA. The observations were taken with the near-infrared detector NIRC2 coupled to the adaptive optics system on the 10-m W.M. Keck telescope (UT 21 July 2006; UT 11 May 2008) and with the Hubble Space Telescope at visible wavelengths (UT 24 and 25 April 2006 using ACS; UT 9 and 10 May 2008 using WFPC2). The spatial resolution in the near-IR (∼0.1–0.15″ at 1–5 μm) is comparable to that obtained at UV–visible wavelengths (∼0.05–0.1″ at 250–890 nm). At 5 μm we are sensitive to Jupiter’s thermal emission, whereas at shorter wavelengths we view the planet in reflected sunlight. These datasets are complementary, as images at 0.25–1.8 μm provide information on the clouds/hazes in the troposphere–stratosphere, while the 5-μm emission maps yield information on deeper layers in the atmosphere, in regions without clouds. At the latter wavelength numerous tiny ovals can be discerned at latitudes between ∼45°S and 60°S, which show up as rings with diameters ?1000 km surrounding small ovals visible in HST data. Several white ovals at 41°S, as well as a new red oval that was discovered to the west of the GRS, also reveal 5-μm bright rings around their peripheries, which coincide with dark/blue rings at visible wavelengths. Typical brightness temperatures in these 5-μm bright rings are 225–250 K, indicative of regions that are cloud-free down to at least the ∼4 bar level, and perhaps down to 5–7 bar, i.e., well within the water cloud.Radiative transfer modeling of the 1–2 μm observations indicates that all ovals, i.e., including the Great Red Spot (GRS), Red Oval BA, and the white ovals at 41°S, are overall very similar in vertical structure. The main distinction between the ovals is caused by variations in the particle densities in the tropospheric–stratospheric hazes (2–650 mbar). These are 5–8 times higher above the red ovals than above the white ones at 41°S. The combination of the 5-μm rings and the vertical structure derived from near-IR data suggests anticyclones to extend vertically from (at least) the water cloud (∼5 bar) up to the tropopause (∼100–200 mbar), and in some cases into the stratosphere.Based upon our observations, we propose that air is rising along the center of a vortex, and descending around the outer periphery, producing the 5-μm bright rings. Observationally, we constrain the maximum radius of these rings to be less than twice the local Rossby deformation radius, L_R. If the radius of the visible oval (i.e., the clouds that make the oval visible) is >3000 km, our observations suggest that the descending part of the secondary circulation must be within these ovals. For the Red Oval BA, we postulate that the return flow is at the location of its red annulus, which has a radius of ∼3000 km.We develop a theory for the secondary circulation, where air is (baroclinically) rising along the center of a vortex in a subadiabatic atmosphere, and descending at a distance not exceeding ∼2× the local Rossby deformation radius. Using this model, we find a timescale for mixing throughout the vortex of order several months, which suggests that the chromophores that are responsible for the red color of Oval BA’s red annulus must be produced locally, at the location of the annulus. This production most likely results from the adiabatic heating in the descending part of the secondary circulation. Such higher-than-ambient temperature causes NH₃–ice to sublime, which will expose the condensation nuclei, such as the red chromophores.     

基于当前加速度模型的抗差自适应Kalman滤波

动态导航与定位的质量取决于对动态载体扰动和观测异常扰动的认知和控制。首先介绍机动载体的当前统计模型,分析该模型存在的问题,提出一种基于“当前”加速度模型的抗差自适应卡尔曼滤波算法。跟以往建立的自适应KALMAN滤波进行比较,计算结果表明,该算法不仅可以提高滤波器的精度,而且更能有效地控制观测异常和动态扰动异常对导航解的影响,使导航解更能反映导航系统的真实情况。     

Observed adaptation to climate change: UK evidence of transition to a well-adapting society

This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping), to building adaptive capacity, to implementing actions and to creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These government initiatives have stimulated a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (and the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The sectors requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure have invested more heavily than those that do not in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Thus we find a higher level of adaptation activity by the water supply and flood defence sectors. Sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that the UK government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost in some areas. We also conclude that these actions may have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries.     

Triaxial ellipsoid dimensions and poles of asteroids from AO observations at the Keck-II telescope

Five main belt asteroids, 2 Pallas, 129 Antigone, 409 Aspasia, 532 Herculina, and 704 Interamnia were imaged with the adaptive optics system on the 10 m Keck-II telescope in the near infrared on one night, August 16, 2006. The three axis dimensions and rotational poles were determined for Pallas, Antigone, Aspasia, and Interamnia, from their changing apparent sizes and shapes as measured with parametric blind deconvolution. The rotational pole found for Interamnia is much different from all previous work, including our own at Lick Observatory the previous month. Although images of Herculina were obtained at only two rotational phases, its rotation appears to be opposite to that predicted from the lightcurve inversion model of M. Kaasalainen, J. Torppa, and J. Piironen [2002. Icarus 159, 369-395]. A search for satellites was made in all of the asteroid images, with negative results, but three trailing stars around Herculina (200 km diameter), down to 8.9 magnitudes fainter and between 1 and 115 asteroid radii (100 to 11,500 km) from the asteroid, establishes an upper limit of 3.3 km for any object with the same albedo near Herculina.     

Post-disaster assessment of hazard mitigation for small and medium-magnitude debris flow disasters in Bali,Indonesia and Jimani,Dominican Republic

This article explores whether past exposure to debris flow disasters with a human dimension (e.g. caused in part by deforestation) results in adaptive hazard mitigation and improved environmental and resource management practices in affected areas. When guiding hazard mitigation practice, the ‘adaptive hazard mitigation’ approach views mitigation as a multi-dimensional experiment, with the associated need for post-experiment monitoring, evaluation, learning and adjustment, and attention paid to multiple scales (Bogardi 2004). This article explores how the concept of ‘adaptive hazard mitigation’ has emerged, linking this ‘adaptive management’ used increasingly in resource and environmental management. Two case studies of disasters linked to human-induced environmental change are examined, and the mitigation responses of local communities, NGOs and Government agencies are documented. Data sources include secondary data (journal articles, web-based disaster reports and grey literature) on each disaster, key informant interviews (n = 8) and direct observation over the 2005–2006 period of post-disaster mitigation actions implemented after each disaster. The research indicates that in both case studies, a limited range of hazard mitigation actions was employed, including both structural and non-structural approaches. However, the research also found that causal factors involving human-induced environmental change (e.g. deforestation) were not addressed, and overall, the hazard mitigation strategies adopted lacked monitoring, learning and adjustment. In both case studies, responses to disaster were judged to be examples of ‘trial and error’ adaptation, rather than either ‘passive’ or ‘active’ adaptation.

Real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome

An adaptive, conceptual model for real-time flood forecasting of the Tiber river in Rome is proposed. This model simulates both rainfall-runoff transformations, to reproduce the contributions of 37 ungauged sub-basins that covered about 30% of the catchment area, and flood routing processes in the hydrographic network. The adaptive component of the model concerns the rainfall-runoff analysis: at any time step the whole set of the model parameters is recalibrated by minimizing the objective function constituted by the sum of the squares of the differences between observed and computed water surface elevations (or discharges). The proposed model was tested through application under real-time forecasting conditions for three historical flood events. To assess the forecasting accuracy, to support the decision maker and to reduce the possibility of false or missed warnings, confidence intervals of the forecasted water surface elevations (or discharges), computed according to a Monte Carlo procedure, are provided. The evaluation of errors in the prediction of peak values, of coefficients of persistence and of the amplitude of confidence intervals of prediction shows the possibility to develop a flood forecast model with a lead time of 12 h, which is useful for civil protection actions.