Scenario predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong

Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong.     

汶川8.0级地震前龙门山地区小震活动与固体潮的关系

通过对汶川8.0级地震前,龙门山地区小震活动与月球上中天、下中天时刻对应关系的讨论,得到龙门山小震活动与月球引潮力的低潮对应关系不明显.另外,对龙门山小震与固体潮理论曲线对应的讨论,得到每组小震的头震在接近固体潮曲线的谷底发生,即地震的发生与固体潮的低潮有关.在临近大震前,地震多发生在固体潮曲线的上升部位,即引潮力增长...     

Late Quaternary glacial chronology on Nevado Illimani, Bolivia, and the implications for paleoclimatic reconstructions across the Andes

¹⁰Be terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure ages from moraines on Nevado Illimani, Cordillera Real, Bolivia suggest that glaciers retreated from moraines during the periods 15.5-13.0 ka, 10.0-8.5 ka, and 3.5-2.0 ka. Late glacial moraines at Illimani are associated with an ELA depression of 400-600 m, which is consistent with other local reconstructions of late glacial ELAs in the Eastern Cordillera of the central Andes. A comparison of late glacial ELAs between the Eastern Cordillera and Western Cordillera indicates a marked change toward flattening of the east-to-west regional ELA gradient. This flattening is consistent with increased precipitation from the Pacific during the late glacial period.     

新疆肯登高尔铜钼矿地质和S、Pb、O、H同位素组成及Re-Os测年

肯登高尔是新疆西天山备受关注的一处铜钼矿,它处于博罗霍洛古生代岛弧带.矿体呈板状、不规则脉状和透镜状产在晚石炭世花岗闪长岩与上石炭统碳酸盐岩外接触带矽卡岩中,矿石中金属矿物以黄铜矿、辉钼矿为主,脉石矿物以透辉石、钙铁榴石为主;硫化物矿物呈自形晶或他形结构,网脉状、浸染状分布于矽卡岩中.内生成矿作用明显经历了矽卡岩和石英...     

Radar Observations of Leonid Meteor Shower 2003

Observations carried out during Leonid meteor shower 2003, by using Indian MST radar (13.46^N, 79.18^E; dip 12.5^N) are used to determine the number density of meteoroids through the cross section of the meteor streams. Cross sections are calculated for a number of classes of echo duration (particle size). They are also used to determine the relative flux of the shower in particle size ranges producing radar meteor echoes having durations <0.4 s, 0.4–1 s and >1 s. Mean activity profiles along the Earth's passage through the stream show a systematic change of the peak activity and the width of the stream depending on the distribution of echo durations across the stream. The patterns of mass distribution index s are presented and discussed.     

红河断裂带莺歌海段地质构造特征

红河入海后的地质构造特征研究是当前红河断裂带研究的薄弱环节.结合莺歌海地区重力和地震资料解释与前人研究成果,系统总结了红河断裂带莺歌海盆地内的几何学、运动学特征,并根据莺歌海盆地沉积中心迁移规律获得了红河断裂带的年代学数据.研究认为:红河断裂带在入海口附近分叉,其中Tien Lang断层折向NE,呈马尾状展布;在莺歌海盆地内红河断裂带分支为A(Ⅰ号断层)、B、C和D(莺西断层)4条断层,其中A断层是最主要的一条分支断层.莺歌海盆地内的分支断层均呈近NW-SE走向,延伸420～500km,其地震解释剖面上发育的典型花状构造和马尾状Tien Lang断层共同指示该断层具有走滑运动性质;红河断裂带对莺歌海盆地的沉积具有明显的控制作用,盆地沉积中心变化规律揭示红河断裂带在30～15.5Ma期间具有左行走滑运动性质,15.5～5.5Ma期间为左行向右行转换阶段,发生了强烈的构造反转作用,5.5Ma以来具有右行走滑运动特征.     

位置地图情境分类分级与切换研究

情境建模是拓展移动地图应用,提供个性化位置服务的有效工具。本文鉴于目前的情境模型存在情境类型区分不清晰、不同情境之间难以切换的问题。首先,剖析了活动与情境分类分级的联系,提出了一种基于活动分层的位置地图情境分类分级方法;然后,在此基础上,研究了情境切换的方式与方法,建立了位置地图情境切换方式与方法之间的对应关系;最后,以用户去机场登机为例,进行了实际验证。     

东北地区M≥5.0地震前中等地震集中活动的震兆研究

定义了描述东北地区中等地震活动增强的3个参量E、T和R,并对东北地区11次M≥5.0地震进行了统计分析.结果显示,东北地区地震活动具有明显的区域性特点:辽宁地区和嫩江断裂以西地区M≥5.0地震前均存在4级地震集中活动的现象,且预期的5级以上地震大部分发生在最近1次4级地震后的半年内;嫩江断裂以东地区5级地震前没有中等地震集中活动的特征.ETR方法在中等地震活跃后判定未来5级地震的震中时具有一定的指示意义.     

Seasonal patterns of pollen and the use of pollen as a chronometer in the north‐western Loess Plateau of China

The use of high‐resolution and highly precise age models is essential for quantitative environmental reconstructions. To assess the reliability of pollen as a chronometer in laminated lake sediments, pollen traps and lake cores, statistical methods were used to study seasonal pollen signals. The results showed that (a) the pollen assemblages from air traps and lake/reservoir surface sediment traps in the north‐western Loess Plateau of China displayed distinct seasonal patterns, which were confirmed by nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS); and (b) The pollen assemblages of the dark and light layers in the Zhenhu Lake cores allowed detection of the seasonality of sediment deposition based on the results of the pollen traps. The NMDS method also showed statistically significant differences between the pollen assemblages of the dark and light layers. Furthermore, instrumental monitoring data and characteristic time markers of historical events (1958 and 2011) were used to cross‐check the chronologies obtained by the pollen assemblages, and the results strengthened the credibility and reliability of pollen as a chronometer.     

Establishment of tree-ring chronology and climatic response of Tibetan juniper (S. tibetica) in south Tibet, western China

A tree-ring width chronology of 442 years(1567-2008) was developed from Tibetan junipers(S.tibetica) derived from south Tibet in western China.Three versions of chronology were produced according to standard dendrochronological techniques.The correlation and response analysis displays a high correlation between the standard tree ring-width chronology and observed annual mean precipitation series during the period 1961-2008.Based on a linear regression model,an annual(prior August to current July) precipitation for the past 229 years was reconstructed.This is the first well-calibrated precipitation reconstruction for the Nanggarze region,south Tibet.The results show that relatively wet years with above-average precipitation occurred in 1780-1807,1854-1866,1886-1898,1904-1949,1967-1981 and 2000-2008,whereas relatively dry years with below-average precipitation prevailed during 1808-1853,1867-1885,1899-1903,1950-1966 and 1982-1999.Common dry/wet periods during 1890s,1910s,1940s-1960s and 1980s were also identified from other moisture reconstructions of nearby regions,indicating a synchronous climatic variation in south Tibet.Abrupt change beginning in 1888 was detected,revealing a transition from wet to dry conditions in south Tibet.Power spectrum analysis reveals significant cycles of 28-year,5.5-5.6-year and 3.3-year during the past 200 years.