禾青井动水位对断层蠕动与慢地震过程的响应初析

以湖南禾青井深井水位观测的异常图象为例进行定性分析，发现动水位观测有可能直接反映出断层的滑动或断层的慢地震过程，前者可能为地下水物理参量的观测与研究提供亲折思路，后者则可能对震源物理学的发展和地震预报水平的提高具有特殊的意义。     

1—3年强震危险区预测的指标体系

强震危险区预测是当前地震预报中的重要课题之一。笔者以预警活断层、预警活断层分段研究解决断层活动的时间和空间尺度为主线，配合地震活动动态分析、地震波介质特征早期信息、近场趋势性前兆异常和危险性概率预测，确定了判别几年尺度强震危险区的指标。在“八五”地震科技课题研究过程中，圈这了范围不超过１００００ｋｍ＾２的５个强震危险区，已成功地对１９９３年１０月２日若羌６．６级地震、１９９５年５月２日乌苏５．８级     

地震活动时序谱的涨落统计特征与地震活跃期

为寻求地震活动演化的统计判据，本文采用多项式拟合法展示地震时序谱之涨落谱，以分维函数法判断最小邻间距（NNS）分布的Poisson性，然后采用MKS无参量法判别涨落谱之统计稳定性，确定NNS分布的转变区，具体研讨了四川、云南若干震区地震活动时序谱的涨落统计分布，发现地震活跃期到来时NNS分布表现出非Poisson化的特征。进一步通过改变和调节时序数据样本集之震级下限，并逐段前推进行统计计算的方式进一步验证结果的可靠性，客观地确定了这些震区地震活动时序涨落谱统计特征的转变期，使根据该统计法判断地震活跃期的方法论渐趋完善。     

阿拉善活动块体的划分及归宿

通过对阿拉善地区地震活动图象呈现显著的条带状、新构造变形表现为块体的隆升和向北的掀斜、周缘的内部性质各异的断裂活动状况、结晶基底与基底内推覆和滑脱构造发育等构造特征的分析，以及与相邻块体的比较，论证了阿拉善活动块体的存在，对其边界作了厘定，并将其归属到华北亚板块，强调了阿拉善块体为一活动构造，其内部存在一个ＮＥ向的阿拉善地震带，归属于华北地震区。该地区的地震危险性不可低估。     

利用黄土剖面的古土壤年龄研究毛毛山断裂的滑动速率

利用１４Ｃ、热释光（ＴＬ）样品年代及扩散方程计算结果，结合区域黄土剖面中古土壤年龄，对毛毛山地区晚第四纪各级地貌年龄进行了对比研究。根据毛毛山活动断裂水平位移和垂直位移分布明显的分组特征，求得毛毛山断裂带不同段落不同时段的平均滑动速率。大约自中更新世晚期以来，毛毛山断裂走滑段的平均水平滑动速率为２．３～３．９ｍｍ／ａ，垂直滑动速率为０．０７～０．１９ｍｍ／ａ；天祝盆地倾滑段垂直滑动速率为０．１１～０．８６ｍｍ／ａ。沿断裂带滑动速率具明显的非均匀性特点，表现为自东向西水平位移具累积滑动亏损特征，垂直位移则具补偿性     

帕米尔北缘弧形推覆构造带东段的基本特征与现代地震活动

帕米尔北缘弧形推覆构造带东段由强烈活动的艾卡尔特弧形活动褶皱－逆断裂带与卡兹克阿尔特弧形活动褶皱－逆断裂带南、北两条巨型边缘弧形构造带及其间的推覆构造构成。每个弧形带分别由多个不同级别的、相对独立的次级弧形构造组成。每个弧形构造实际上就是一个独立的逆冲推覆席体，都有其各自独特的几何学、运动学、动力学特征，但同时又具有自相似性特征。独立地震破裂区或形变带与独立活动的弧形推覆构造可能具有一定的对应关系     

九甸峡工程区断层测年结果研究与讨论

断层的年代测定是研究断层活动性的重要内容之一。然而, 一个工程同一条断层会出现不同的测年结果, 从而引起争议和难予决断。近年来我们通过几个大型工程区域稳定性研究, 对此获得了一些认识。本文以洮河九甸峡地区几条主干断层为研究对象, 采用同位素年龄测定与野外地质调查和显微构造分析相结合的方法, 对断层测年问题作一分析和讨论, 也许对岩土工程断层活动性研究有一定参考价值。     

The transition from passive to active margin tectonics: a case study from the zone of Samedan (eastern Switzerland)

The Zone of Samedan is part of a fossil, early Mesozoic rift system originally situated in the distal, Lower Austro-Alpine domain of the Adriatic passive continental margin. An early Mesozoic configuration of asymmetrical rift basins bounded by relative structural highs compartmentalized Late Cretaceous active margin tectonics; Jurassic half-grabens were folded into arcuate synclines, whereas relative structural highs engendered thin, imbricated thrust sheets. West-directed thrusting and folding initiated at the surface and continued to depths favoring mylonitization under lower greenschist-facies conditions. At this time Liguria-Piemontese ophiolites were accreted to Lower Austro-Alpine units directly underlying the Zone of Samedan. Late Cretaceous orogenic collapse of the Adriatic active margin involved the reactivation of west-directed thrusts as low-angle, top-to-the-east, normal faults. These faults accommodated extensional uplift of Liguria-Piemontese ophiolites and Lower Austro-Alpine units beneath and within the Zone of Samedan. During Paleogene collision, some Late Cretaceous faults in the Zone of Samedan were reactivated under lower anchizonal conditions as north-directed thrusts. The latter stages of this early Tertiary thickening were transitional to brittle, high-angle normal faulting associated with top-to-the-east extension and spreading above the warm, uplifting Lepontine dome.     

地震CT及其地质解释

在金川公司龙首矿东采区1 280中段井下500m深的巷道中应用地震CT技术进行寻找深部隐伏矿体的实验。波速图像表明,研究区内中西部有一高速异常区,推断为花岗岩体和含矿的超基性侵入岩体。区内还有一个横贯测区中央近东西走向的低速断裂带。这些推断结果为后期的钻探和巷道开掘所证明。     

Prediction of volumes and risk in hydrocarbon exploration: a quantification of geology

 The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure, reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited. Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable, consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables. As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios. Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996