What happens after climate change adaptation projects end: A community-based approach to ex-post assessment of adaptation projects

Over the last decade, hundreds of climate change adaptation projects have been funded and implemented. Despite the importance of these first-generation adaptation projects for establishing funders and implementors’ “best practices,” very little is known about how early adaptation projects have endured, to what ends, and for whom. In this article, I propose a community-based methodology for ex-post assessment of climate change adaptation projects. This methodology contributes to recognitional justice by asking the individuals and collectives tasked with sustaining adaptation initiatives to define adaptation success and what criteria for success should be assessed. I apply this subjective assessment approach in 10 communities across Ecuador that participated in an internationally funded adaptation project that concluded in 2015. My analysis draws together participatory mapping, walking interviews with local leaders, participant observation, and surveys with former project participants. The results highlight that even adaptation projects that were deemed highly successful at their closure have uncertain futures. I find that the sustainability mechanisms that were envisioned by project implementors have not functioned, and communities are shouldering the burden of reviving failing adaptation interventions. These findings highlight that the current model of episodic funding for climate change adaptation projects and evaluation processes needs to be revisited to acknowledge the long-term challenges faced by communities. This analysis also calls attention to the importance of ex-post assessment for adaptation projects and the potential of subjective assessment approaches for building more ontological and epistemological pluralism in understandings of successful climate change adaptation.     

杭州湾潮波三维数值模拟

采用“σ坐标下的三维数值模式”来模拟杭州湾三维潮波运动,水平方向上以较小尺度的差分网格覆盖计算区,垂直方向上给予均匀的分层,对占本湾水位谱总能量80％的半日潮波M_2和半日潮波m_1((K_1+O_1)/2)两类进行了数值模拟。水平流动和潮位的计算结果与相应的实测值拟合良好。计算表明,水平潮流具有明显的往复流性质,主要呈东-西方向;流速自湾口向湾顶增加,M_2分潮流最大可达270cm/s左右,m_1分潮流最大可达24cm/s左右。在太阴时1和13时,于湾的中部偏南存在一个弱的逆时针向的大涡旋;在7和19时于上述位置存在一个弱的顺时针向的大涡旋。垂直流速振幅一般为10~(-2)—2×10~(-2)cm/s,最大可达2.5×10~(-2)cm/s,位于乍浦附近的底层水域中。     

The demographics of energy and mobility poverty: Assessing equity and justice in Ireland,Mexico, and the United Arab Emirates

Energy and mobility poverty limits people’s choices and opportunities and negatively impinges upon structural economic and social welfare patterns. It also hampers the ability of planners to implement more equitable and just decarbonization pathways. Research has revealed that climate policies have imposed a financial burden on low-income and other vulnerable groups by increasing food and energy prices, leading as well to global inequality. Similarly, researchers have warned that in developing countries, emission mitigation policies could increase poverty rates and even frustrate progress towards universal access to clean energy. This research explores whether low-income social groups experience a 'double energy vulnerability', a situation that simultaneously positions people at heightened risk of transport and energy poverty. We investigate this 'double vulnerability' through original data collection via three nationally representative surveys of Mexico (N = 1,205), the United Arab Emirates (N = 1,141), Ireland and Northern Ireland (N = 1,860). We draw from this original data to elaborate on the sociodemographic attributes, expenditure and behaviour emerging from energy and transport use, focusing on themes such as equity, behaviour and vulnerability. We propose energy and transport poverty indexes that allow us to summarize the key contributing factors to energy and transport poverty in the countries studied and uncover a strong correlation between these two salient forms of poverty. Our results suggest that energy and transport poverty are common issues regardless of the very different national, and even sub-national, contexts. We conclude that energy and transport poverty requires target policy interventions suitable for all segments of society, thus enabling contextually-tailored, just energy transitions.     

IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?

Long-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible future developments and linking these different climate research elements. Such scenarios play a crucial role in the climate change literature informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) and support policymakers. This article reviews the evolution of emission scenarios, since 1990, by focusing on scenario critiques and responses as published in the literature. We focus on the issues raised in the critiques and the possible impact on scenario development. The critique (280) focuses on four areas: 1) key scenario assumptions (40%), 2) the emissions range covered by the scenarios and missing scenarios (25%), 3) methodological issues (24%), and 4) the policy relevance and handling of uncertainty (11%). Scenario critiques have become increasingly influential since 2000. Some areas of critique have decreased or become less prominent (probability, development process, convergence assumptions, and economic metrics). Other areas have become more dominant over time (e.g., policy relevance & implications of scenarios, transparency, Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) assumptions, missing scenarios). Several changes have been made in developing scenarios and their content that respond to the critique.     

Analysis on the key findings related to emission trends and drivers from the IPCC AR6 report北大核心CSCD

"Emission Trends and Drivers" chapter, an important basis for international climate negotiations, is one of the core contents of each assessment report. The trends and driving factors of greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 to 2019 are discussed in this chapter in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) released in April 2022. Compared with the content in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), in terms of historical emission trends, AR6 focuses on the changes from 2010 to 2019, highlights the importance of the 1.5°C temperature control target, pays more attention to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions related to land use change, and further emphasizes the carbon emission trend and its regional evolution trend from the perspective of production and consumption. Besides, the short-term impact of COVID-19 on global carbon emissions is explored. In terms of driving factors, besides analyzing the global and regional economic driving factors, the economic driving factors and differences in energy, industry, construction, transportation, agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sectors are also studied, which systematically reflects the similarities and differences of driving factors at the global, regional and departmental levels. The results affirm the positive impact of existing climate policies on climate mitigation highlight the benefits of technological change and innovation on climate mitigation, and identify the adverse impact of carbon locking of fossil energy infrastructure. Finally, based on the full analysis of the key conclusions in AR6, some suggestions on China's low-carbon development are given. © 2022 Chinese Journal of Digestive Endoscopy All rights reserved.     

Chronology of Early to Mid-Pleistocene sediments in the northern North Sea: New evidence from amino acid and strontium isotope analyses

Sediments deposited during glacial-interglacial cycles through the Early to Mid-Pleistocene in the North Sea are chronologically poorly constrained. To contribute to the chronology of these units, amino acid racemization (AAR) and strontium (Sr) isotope analyses have been performed on samples from four shallow borings and one oil well along a transect in the northern North Sea. D/L Asp (aspartic acid) values obtained through reverse-phase liquid chromatography in the benthic foraminiferal species Elphidium excavatum is focused on because of consistent results and a good stratigraphic distribution of this benthic species. For the Early Pleistocene, an age model for the well 16/1–8, from the central part of the northern North Sea based on Sr ages allows for dating of the prograding wedges filling the pre-Quaternary central basin. A regional calibration curve for the racemization of Asp in Elphidium excavatum is developed using published ages of radiocarbon-dated samples and samples associated with the previously identified Bruhnes/Matuyama (B/M) paleomagnetic boundary and a Sr age from this study. Based on all the available geochronological evidence, samples were assigned to marine oxygen isotope stages (MIS) with uncertainties on the order of 10–70 ka.Sr ages suggest a hiatus of <2 million years (Ma) possibly due to non-deposition or low sedimentation between the Utsira Formation (Pliocene) and the Early Pleistocene. An increase in sedimentation rates around 1.5 ± 0.07 Ma (∼MIS 51) may partly be due to sediment supply from rivers from the south-east and partly due to the extension of ice sheet around 1.36 ± 0.07 Ma from the Norwegian coast to the central North Sea. A possible basin-wide glaciation occurred around 1.1 Ma (∼ MIS 32) (upper regional unconformity/top of unit Q4 in this study), resulting in erosion and regional unconformity. Two interglacials in the Norwegian Channel have been dated: the Radøy Interglacial to 1.07 ± 0.01 Ma (possibly MIS 31, the ‘super interglacial’), and the Norwegian Trench Interglacial to 0.50 ± 0.02 Ma (possibly MIS 13). A massive till unit identified at the same stratigraphic level in all shallow borings may partly represent an extensive MIS 12 glaciation. This study shows that the combined use of amino acid racemization data and Sr isotope chronology can refine the chronological ambiguities of Quaternary North Sea sediments related partly to the impact of glacial processes.     

CMIP6全球气候模式对中亚极端降水模拟能力的评估

本文基于NOAA再分析逐日降水数据和22个CMIP6模式的降水模拟数据,选取了6个极端降水指数,从气候态和相对变率两个角度对CMIP6模式在中亚地区极端降水方面的模拟能力开展了评估。结果表明,在气候态方面,中亚地区降水的空间分布表现为由西南向东北递增,其东南部山地迎风侧降水偏多;多模式集合对SDII(简单降水强度)和CDD(最大无雨期)模拟的平均误差分别为-5.43%和0.45%,对PRCPTOT(年总降水量)、R1mm(有雨日数)、Rx5day(最大连续五日降水)和CWD(最大雨期)的模拟结果存在明显高估,且在中亚东南部高海拔地区误差偏高。在相对变率方面,多模式集合模拟的中亚极端降水的相对变率偏小,其中对CWD的模拟效果相对较好,平均误差为-4.78%;对R1mm的模拟效果最差,平均误差为-36.16%。模式间进行比较,TaiESM1、EC-Earth3-Veg-LR和GFDL-ESM为22个CMIP6模式中模拟能力最好的前3个模式。     

面向对象与卷积神经网络模型的GF-6 WFV影像作物分类

GF-6WFV影像是中国首颗带有红边波段的中高分辨率8波段多光谱卫星的遥感影像,对于其影像及红边波段对作物分类影响的研究利用亟待展开.本文结合面向对象和深度学习提出一种适用于GF-6 WFV红边波段的卷积神经网络(RE-CNN)遥感影像作物分类方法.首先采用多尺度分割和ESP工具选择最佳分割参数完成影像分割,通过面向对...