重庆2008年7月21日强对流天气成因及其特征

对2008年7月21日重庆市一次强对流天气过程进行诊断分析,通过分析天气背景,雷达回波,并应用四维变分同化方法反演风场,研究了强对流天气的发展机制.结果表明:高层冷空气入侵和中低层低涡系统强盛的暖湿气流形成的辐合切变是发生强对流的主要原因.雷达观测具有明显的弱回波区和"逆风区";反演水平风场表现为低层强回波前部有一条辐合上升带,到中层辐合上升带与强回波区重合,高层则对应辐散区;从风场的垂直剖面来看,强对流后部为入流区,到达中部后,形成强烈的上升气流,低层辐合带和强烈的上升气流形成强回波.在前部弱回波区处存在强降水下落形成的出流,该气流与暖湿气流辐合造成了浅薄的出流边界.     

Simulation of Precipitation in Monsoon Regions of China by CMIP3 Models

The output of 25 models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 （CMIP3） were evaluated, with a focus on summer precipitation in eastern China for the last 40 years of the 20th century. Most models failed to reproduce rainfall associated with the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM）, and hence the seasonal cycle in eastern China, but provided reasonable results in Southwest （SW） and Northeast China （NE）. The simulations produced reasonable results for the Yangtze-Huai （YH） Basin area, although the Meiyu phenomenon was underestimated in general. One typical regional phenomenon, a seasonal northward shift in the rain belt from early to late summer, was completely missed by most models. The long-term climate trends in rainfall over eastern China were largely underestimated, and the observed geographical pattern of rainfall changes was not reproduced by most models. Precipitation extremes were evaluated via parameters of fitted GEV （Generalized Ex- treme Values） distributions. The annual extremes were grossly underestimated in the monsoon-dominated YH and SW regions, but reasonable values were calculated for the North China （NC） and NE regions. These results suggest a general failure to capture the dynamics of the EASM in current coupled climate models. Nonetheless, models with higher resolution tend to reproduce larger decadal trends and annual extremes of precipitation in the regions studied.     

平流层准两年周期振荡对CH4双峰的影响

分析了1992～2001年1月HALOE(卤素掩星试验装置)的CH4资料,研究了CH4的多年平均分布,结果表明:CH4混合比在平流层下层较大,向上迅速减小.同时,中纬度与热带CH4混合比的等压面梯度也随着高度逐渐减小,甚至在平流层顶附近和平流层上层形成双峰,这在北半球的春夏季特别明显.作者用NCAR的SOCRTAES二维模式的模拟结果来分析CH4混合比在平流层顶和平流层上层形成双峰的机理.模式作了以下两个模拟,其一为没有热带纬向风场QBO(准两年振荡)的状况,其二为加入QBO强迫后的模拟.结果发现QBO引起的余差环流对CH4混合比在热带和副热带平流层顶和平流层上层的输送是影响CH4双峰的一个主要原因.     

华东稻麦轮作农田CH4、N2O和NO排放特征

利用同步自动观测系统对华东稻麦轮作农田的CH4、N2O和NO排放进行了长期连续观测,分析了这3种气体排放的季节特征及决定因素,结果表明,华东稻麦轮作农田的CH4、N2O和NO排放具有完全不同的季节变化形式。CH4的排放发生在水稻生长期,其他阶段排放不明显,土壤水分状况是决定整个轮作周期内CH4排放变化的主要因素。N2O排放具有"冬季无,水田少,旱地多"的季节变化特点,尤其以旱地阶段的排放为主,土壤水分状况和温度共同决定着N2O排放的季节变化形式。NO排放具有"冬季无,水田很少,春季旱地多于秋季旱地"的季节分布特点,轮作周期内97.3%±0.6%的NO排放都发生在除冬季以外的旱地阶段,NO排放的季节变化形式由土壤水分状况和温度共同决定。大多数情况下稻田CH4和N2O排放呈互为消长的关系,但在烤田期间,二者却有时甚至同时出现高排放。在N2O日平均排放通量小于5 mg.m-2.h-1时,稻麦轮作农田的N2O和NO排放呈明显的互为消长关系,但大于5 mg.m-2.h-1时,N2O排放很强,同时NO排放也很强。     

New magnetic field measurements of β Cephei stars and slowly pulsating B stars

We present the results of the continuation of our magnetic survey with FORS 1 at the VLT of a sample of B‐type stars consisting of confirmed or candidate β Cephei stars and Slowly Pulsating B (hereafter SPB) stars, along with a small number of normal B‐type stars. A weak mean longitudinal magnetic field of the order of a few hundred Gauss was detected in three β Cephei stars and two stars suspected to be β Cephei stars, in five SPB stars and eight stars suspected to be SPB stars. Additionally, a longitudinal magnetic field at a level larger than 3σ has been diagnosed in two normal B‐type stars, the nitrogen‐rich early B‐type star HD 52089 and in the B5 IV star HD 153716. Roughly one third of β Cephei stars have detected magnetic fields: Out of 13 β Cephei stars studied to date with FORS 1, four stars possess weak magnetic fields, and out of the sample of six suspected β Cephei stars two show a weak magnetic field. The fraction of magnetic SPBs and candidate SPBs is found to be higher: Roughly half of the 34 SPB stars have been found to be magnetic and among the 16 candidate SPBs eight stars possess magnetic fields. In an attempt to understand why only a fraction of pulsating stars exhibit magnetic fields, we studied the position of magnetic and non‐magnetic pulsating stars in the H‐R diagram. We find that their domains in the H‐R diagram largely overlap, and no clear picture emerges as to the possible evolution of the magnetic field across the main sequence. It is possible that stronger fields tend to be found in stars with lower pulsating frequencies and smaller pulsating amplitudes. A somewhat similar trend is found if we consider a correlation between the field strength and the v sin i ‐values, i.e. stronger magnetic fields tend to be found in more slowly rotating stars (© 2009 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

A very rare triple-peaked type-I X-ray burst in the low-mass X-ray binary 4U 1636−53

We have discovered a triple-peaked X-ray burst from the low-mass X-ray binary (LMXB) 4U 1636−53 with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer ( RXTE ). This is the first triple-peaked burst reported from any LMXB using RXTE , and it is only the second burst of this kind observed from any source. (The previous one was also from 4U 1636−53, and was observed with EXOSAT .) From fits to time-resolved spectra, we find that this is not a radius-expansion burst, and the same triple-peaked pattern seen in the X-ray light curve is also present in the bolometric light curve of the burst. Similar to what was previously observed in double-peaked bursts from this source, the radius of the emitting area increases steadily during the burst, with short periods in between during which the radius remains more or less constant. The temperature first increases steeply, and then decreases across the burst also showing three peaks. The first and last peak in the temperature profile occur, respectively, significantly before and after the first and last peaks in the X-ray and bolometric light curves. We found no significant oscillations during this burst. This triple-peaked burst, as well as the one observed with EXOSAT and the double-peak bursts in this source, all took place when 4U 1636−53 occupied a relatively narrow region in the colour–colour diagram, corresponding to a relatively high (inferred) mass-accretion rate. No model presently available is able to explain the multiple-peaked bursts.     

Constraining jet/disc geometry and radiative processes in stellar black holes XTE J1118+480 and GX 339−4

We present results from modelling of quasi-simultaneous broad-band (radio through X-ray) observations of the Galactic stellar black hole (BH) transient X-ray binary (XRB) systems XTE J1118+480 and GX 339−4 using an irradiated disc + compact jet model. In addition to quantifying the physical properties of the jet, we have developed a new irradiated disc model which also constrains the geometry and temperature of the outer accretion disc by assuming a disc heated by viscous energy release and X-ray irradiation from the inner regions. For the source XTE J1118+480, which has better spectral coverage of the two in optical and near-infrared (OIR) wavelengths, we show that the entire broad-band continuum can be well described by an outflow-dominated model + an irradiated disc. The best-fitting radius of the outer edge of the disc is consistent with the Roche lobe geometry of the system, and the temperature of the outer edge of the accretion disc is similar to those found for other XRBs. Irradiation of the disc by the jet is found to be negligible for this source. For GX 339−4, the entire continuum is well described by the jet-dominated model only, with no disc component required. For the two XRBs, which have very different physical and orbital parameters and were in different accretion states during the observations, the sizes of the jet base are similar and both seem to prefer a high fraction of non-thermal electrons in the acceleration/shock region and a magnetically dominated plasma in the jet. These results, along with recent similar results from modelling other galactic XRBs and AGNs, may suggest an inherent unity in diversity in the geometric and radiative properties of compact jets from accreting black holes.     

Simulation of Tsaoling landslide, Taiwan, based on Saint Venant equations over general topography

The 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake triggered the catastrophic Tsaoling landslide in Taiwan. The geomorphological change measured from the data of the 1989 and 2000 aerial photos reveals that the scar and deposit volumes are about 0.126 km³ and 0.15 km³ respectively. The debris material ran over a distance of 1.6 km with 500 m descent in elevation. In this paper, we use the continuum model of hydraulic flow, SHALTOP^2D, based on the equations of Bouchut and Westdickenberg to simulate numerically the landslide dynamics. When the mass is moving, the flow is assumed hydrostatic with a basal Coulomb friction. The best fit is obtained using the basal friction angle equal to 6°, the only parameter of the simulation, uniformly applied in the calculation domain. The landslide front reaches the Chinshui river valley, the foothill of the slope, within only about 25 s after initiation and the motion settles in about 113 s. The maximum speed is estimated 75 m/s. The spreading of the deposit agrees well with the field measurement.     

On the swelling potential of compacted high plasticity clays

We conducted a study of the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for Turkey and the adjacent areas, applying the maximum likelihood method. The procedure allows for the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two. By using this method, we can estimate the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude Mˆ_max, the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known bˆ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. These three parameters are determined simultaneously using an iterative scheme. The uncertainty in the determination of the magnitudes was also taken into consideration. The return periods (RP) of earthquakes with a magnitude M ≥ m are also evaluated. The whole examined area is divided into 24 seismic regions based on their seismotectonic regime. The homogeneity of the magnitudes is an essential factor in such studies. In order to achieve homogeneity of the magnitudes, formulas that convert any magnitude to an M_S-surface scale are developed. New completeness cutoffs and their corresponding time intervals are also assessed for each of the 24 seismic regions. Each of the obtained parameters is distributed into its respective seismic region, allowing for an analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and a representation of their regional variation on a map. The earthquake hazard level is also calculated as a function of the form Θ = (Mˆ_max,RP_6.0), and a relative hazard scale (defined as the index K) is defined for each seismic region. The investigated regions are then classified into five groups using these parameters. This classification is useful for theoretical and practical reasons and provides a picture of quantitative seismicity. An attempt is then made to relate these values to the local tectonics.     

Effects of strong ground motion on the susceptibility of gully type debris flows

Typhoon Herb in 1996 caused widespread debris flows in central Taiwan. The 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake on September 21, 1999, which also took place in central Taiwan, induced many landslides in the region. These landslides turned into debris flows when Typhoon Toraji struck Taiwan in 2001. This research selects three regions which suffered a ground motion class of 5, 6, and 7 on the Richter scale during the Chi-Chi earthquake as study areas. Air photos from 1997 and 2001 of these regions are used to map the gully-type debris flows that took place after Typhoons Herb and Toraji, respectively. The gullies adjacent to the debris flow, but without a trace of debris flows, are also mapped as the non-debris flow data. The topography, hydrogeology, and rainfall factors – where debris flow occurred and in which there was no occurrence of debris flows in these gullies were retrieved from DTM, geological maps, and iso-countour maps, and of rainfall through GIS processing. These characteristic are introduced into a probabilistic neural network to build a predicting model for the probability of the occurrence of debris flows. Three series of cross analyses are conducted to compare the probability of the occurrence of debris flows of the same dataset predicted by different prediction models. The results reveal that the susceptibility of debris flows was elevated after the Chi-Chi earthquake struck. The upsurge of susceptibility was more obvious for the regions that received a higher class of ground motion.