Regional moment tensor uncertainty due to mismodeling of the crust

The retrieval of earthquake moment tensor (MT) requires the response of the medium, in which seismic waves travel from the hypocenter to the stations, to be known. In inverting long-period (LP) seismic data (teleseismic and LP regional records), a gross earth model is sufficient; with decreasing periods, a more detailed model is needed. This is the case when waveforms of weak earthquakes at regional distances are to be inverted. Regional moment tensors (RMTs) of mostly Mediterranean earthquakes are determined on a routine basis by the Swiss Seismological Survey (SED) by using averaged models of the earth's crust. By inverting broad-band records of the M_w=4.8 earthquake near Udine, N Italy, on Feb. 14, 2002, we tested the sensitivity of the MT solution with respect to possible errors in the earth model used and in the location of the hypocenter depth. We perturbed the P and S velocities and the thickness in the 1-D earth model in the range from 3% to 30% of the parameter values and constructed estimates of confidence regions of the MT and error bars of the source time function (STF) and scalar moment in three frequency bands. Similarly, these error characteristics were determined assuming a mislocation in the hypocenter depth. We found that, in the band of periods from 25 to 50 s, the mechanism is resolved well (at the confidence level 95% at least) up to an earth model uncertainty of 30%, in the passband 10–25 s up to about 10%, but it is undetermined completely at periods of 5–10 s. An error in hypocenter depth of as much as double the value reported by the location procedure does not destroy the resolution of the mechanism at periods above 10 s. In the RMT catalog of the SED, earthquakes of M_w greater than about 3.5 are processed at periods above 30 s; thus, the solutions for these events are robust with respect to a possible uncertainty in the earth model used. Mechanisms of weaker earthquakes, retrieved from short periods, should be interpreted with caution.     

Analysis of geomagnetic field along seismic profile P4 of the International Project POLONAISE'97

This paper presents relative secular variations of the total intensity of the geomagnetic field against a background of results of magnetic anomaly interpretation along seismic profile P4. Profile P4 crosses a Variscan folding zone in the Paleozoic Platform (PLZ), the Trans-European Suture Zone (TESZ), and the Polish part of the East European Craton (EEC). Secular geomagnetic field variations measured in 1966–2000 along a line adjacent to seismic profile P4 were analysed. The study of secular variations, reduced to the base recordings at the Belsk Magnetic Observatory, showed that the growth of geomagnetic field at the East European Craton was slower than in the Trans-European Suture Zone and the Paleozoic Platform.A 2D crustal magnetic model was interpreted as a result of magnetic modelling, in which seismic, geological and geothermal data were also used. The modelling showed that there were significant differences in the magnetic model for geotectonic units, which had been earlier determined based on deep seismic survey data. It should be noted that a fundamental change of trend of the relative secular variations was observed at the slope of the Precambrian Platform. After analysing the geomagnetic field observed along profile P4, the hypothesis that the contact between Phanerozoic and Precambrian Europe lies in Poland's territory can be proven.     

Simulations of a coupled hydro-chemo-mechanical system in rocks

A coupled hydro-chemo-mechanical numerical model is developed for these coupled phenomena in many engineering fields. The model has been applied to predicting the response of a stressed rockmass column to an injected reactive fluid (reagent) flow. The response includes evolutions of porosity, permeability, reagent and mineral concentrations during dissolution. In the model, the progress of dissolution is defined by the change in porosity ratio and the porosity increases with dissolution assuming there is no precipitation. The numerical evolutions of porosity, permeability, reagent and mineral concentrations during dissolution are validated against steady state solutions. The model results show that these evolutions are regulated to a certain extent by the applied external loadings: an applied extensional stress enhances the progress of the dissolution process while an applied compression stress slows the progress of the dissolution process. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Application of Remote Sensing in Flood Management with Special Reference to Monsoon Asia: A Review

The conventional means to record hydrological parameters of aflood often fail to record an extreme event. Remote sensingtechnology along with geographic information system (GIS)has become the key tool for flood monitoring in recent years.Development in this field has evolved from optical to radarremote sensing, which has provided all weather capabilitycompared to the optical sensors for the purpose of flood mapping.The central focus in this field revolves around delineation of floodzones and preparation of flood hazard maps for the vulnerable areas.In this exercise flood depth is considered crucial for flood hazardmapping and a digital elevation model (DEM) is considered to bethe most effective means to estimate flood depth from remotelysensed or hydrological data. In a flat terrain accuracy of floodestimation depends primarily on the resolution of the DEM. Riverflooding in the developing countries of monsoon Asia is very acutebecause of their heavy dependence on agriculture but any floodestimation or hazard mapping attempt in this region is handicappedby poor availability of high resolution DEMs. This paper presents areview of application of remote sensing and GIS in flood managementwith particular focus on the developing countries of Asia.     

Fitting the Linear Model of Coregionalization by Generalized Least Squares

In geostatistical studies, the fitting of the linear model of coregionalization (LMC) to direct and cross experimental semivariograms is usually performed with a weighted least-squares (WLS) procedure based on the number of pairs of observations at each lag. So far, no study has investigated the efficiency of other least-squares procedures, such as ordinary least squares (OLS), generalized least squares (GLS), and WLS with other weighing functions, in the context of the LMC. In this article, we compare the statistical properties of the sill estimators obtained with eight least-squares procedures for fitting the LMC: OLS, four WLS, and three GLS. The WLS procedures are based on approximations of the variance of semivariogram estimates at each distance lag. The GLS procedures use a variance–covariance matrix of semivariogram estimates that is (i) estimated using the fourth-order moments with sill estimates (GLS₁), (ii) calculated using the fourth-order moments with the theoretical sills (GLS₂), and (iii) based on an approximation using the correlation between semivariogram estimates in the case of spatial independence of the observations (GLS₃). The current algorithm for fitting the LMC by WLS while ensuring the positive semidefiniteness of sill matrix estimates is modified to include any least-squares procedure. A Monte Carlo study is performed for 16 scenarios corresponding to different combinations of the number of variables, number of spatial structures, values of ranges, and scale dependence of the correlations among variables. Simulation results show that the mean square error is accounted for mostly by the variance of the sill estimators instead of their squared bias. Overall, the estimated GLS₁ and theoretical GLS₂ are the most efficient, followed by the WLS procedure that is based on the number of pairs of observations and the average distance at each lag. On that basis, GLS₁ can be recommended for future studies using the LMC.     

Simulation of Orissa Super Cyclone (1999) using PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model

In this study a non-hydrostatic version of Penn State University (PSU) -- NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model is used to simulate thesuper cyclonic storm that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October 1999. The model isintegrated up to 123 h for producing 5-day forecast of the storm. Several importantfields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and rainfall are compared with theverification analysis/observation to examine the performance of the model. The modelsimulated track of the cyclone is compared with the best-fit track obtained from IndiaMeteorological Department (IMD) and the track obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The model is found to perform reasonably well in simulating the track and in particular, the intensity of the storm.     

Tectonic and hydrodynamic control of landslides in the northern area of the Central Rif, Morocco

The northern edge of the Central Rif (Morocco) is subject to numerous landslides where mechanisms do not correspond to the classical models used by geomechanics specialists. It is necessary to adopt a multidisciplinary approach that combines geomorphology, geology, hydrogeology, and geotechnics in order to understand how such slope failures are generated, especially in a region with a heterogeneous structure characterised by significant lithological differences, severe fracturing, and thrust sheets where tectonic contacts play a major role in groundwater circulation. This report shows that these failures are essentially controlled by the tectonic contact separating the Tisirene and Chouamat thrust sheets and by subsurface hydrodynamic conditions. A model of spatial and temporal variations in the factor of safety is proposed.     

Sorption Characteristics of Rare Earth Element Eu^3＋ onto Silica-Water Interfaces Studied by Fluorescence Spectroscopy

The sorption of Eu species onto nano-size silica-water interfaces was investigated using fluorescence spectroscopy for Ph ranges of 1-8.5 and an initial Eu concentration (Ceu) of 2×10-4 M. The sorption rate of Eu was initially low, but significantly increased at Ph>4. The sorption density of Eu species on a silica surface was ～1.58×10-7 mol/m2 when the dissolved Eu species were completely sorbed onto silica-water interfaces at Ph=～5.8. The sorbed Eu species at Ph<6 is aquo Eu3 , which is sorbed onto silica-water interfaces as an outer-sphere complex at Ph<5, but may be sorbed as an inner-sphere bidentate complex at 5相似文献   

Modélisation morphodynamique cross-shore d'un estran vaseux

Numerical experiments were performed to simulate the profile evolution of an intertidal mudflat with a 1D cross-shore morphodynamical model. First, the hydrodynamical forcing is a cross-shore tidal current due to semi-diurnal variations of the free surface elevation at the open boundary. Further, considering the conservation of the action density of surface gravity waves, a wave height (and resulting bottom shear stress) calculation is added to the morphodynamical model. Results of the numerical experiments show that the shape of the profile reaches equilibrium. The mudflat progrades continually when the forcing is tide only, whereas it can be steady under the simultaneous action of tide and waves. To cite this article: B. Waeles et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).     

Three-dimensional forward and backward modelling of diapirism: numerical approach and its applicability to the evolution of salt structures in the Pricaspian basin

Numerical studies of ductile deformations induced by salt movements have, until now, been restricted to two-dimensional (2D) modelling of diapirism. This paper suggests a numerical approach to model the evolution of three-dimensional (3D) salt structures toward increasing maturity. This approach is also used here to restore the evolution of salt structures through successive earlier stages. The numerical methodology is applied to study several model examples. We analyse a model of salt diapirs that develop from an initial random perturbation of the interface between salt and its overburden and restore the evolved salt diapirs to their initial stages. We show that the average restoration errors are less than 1%. An evolutionary model of a 2D salt wall loaded by a 2D pile of sediments predicts a decomposition of the salt wall into 3D diapiric structures when the overburden of salt is supplied by 3D synkinematic wedge of sediments. We model salt extrusion feeding a gravity current over the depositional surface and estimate an average rate of extrusion and horizontal velocity of salt spreading. Faulting of the overburden to salt overhangs initiates new secondary diapirs, and we analyse the growth of these secondary diapirs. We also study how lateral flow effects the evolution of salt diapirs. The shape of a salt diapir can be very different if the rate of horizontal flow is much greater than the initial rate of diapiric growth solely due to gravity. We discuss the applicability of the results of the models to the evolution of Late Permian salt structures in the Pricaspian basin (Russia and Kazakhstan). These structures are distinguishable into a variety of styles representing different stages of growth: salt pillows, diapirs, giant salt massifs, 2D diapiric walls and 3D stocks complicated by large overhangs. The different sizes, shapes and maturities of salt structures in different parts of the Pricaspian basin reflect areal differences in salt thickness and loading history. Our results suggest that the numerical methodology can be employed to analyse the evolution of all salt structures that have upbuilt through younger ductile overburdens.