We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.
We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.
The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.
ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.
Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates. 相似文献
Magnetotelluric investigations have been carried out in the Garhwal Himalayan corridor to delineate the electrical structure
of the crust along a profile extending from Indo-Gangetic Plain to Higher Himalayan region in Uttarakhand, India. The profile
passing through major Himalayan thrusts: Himalayan Frontal Thrust (HFF), Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and Main Central Thrust
(MCT), is nearly perpendicular to the regional geological strike. Data processing and impedance analysis indicate that out
of 44 stations MT data recorded, only 27 stations data show in general, the validity of 2D assumption. The average geoelectric
strike, N70°W, was estimated for the profile using tensor decomposition. 2D smooth geoelectrical model has been presented,
which provides the electrical image of the shallow and deeper crustal structure. The major features of the model are (i) a low resistivity (<50Ωm), shallow feature interpreted as sediments of Siwalik and Indo-Gangetic Plain, (ii) highly resistive (> 1000Ωm) zone below the sediments at a depth of 6 km, interpreted as the top surface of the Indian plate,
(iii) a low resistivity (< 10Ωm) below the depth of 6 km near MCT zone coincides with the intense micro-seismic activity in the
region. The zone is interpreted as the partial melting or fluid phase at mid crustal depth. Sensitivity test indicates that
the major features of the geoelectrical model are relevant and desired by the MT data. 相似文献
There is a growing interest in modeling and analyzing karst phenomena in three dimensions. This paper integrates geology,
groundwater hydrology, geographic information system (GIS), database management system (DBMS), visualization and data mining
to study karst features in Huaibei, China. The 3D geo-objects retrieved from the karst area are analyzed and mapped into different
abstract levels. The spatial relationships among the objects are constructed by a dual-linker. The shapes of the 3D objects
and the topological models with attributes are stored and maintained in the DBMS. Spatial analysis was then used to integrate
the data in the DBMS and the 3D model to form a virtual reality (VR) to provide analytical functions such as distribution
analysis, correlation query, and probability assessment. The research successfully implements 3D modeling and analyses in
the karst area, and meanwhile provides an efficient tool for government policy-makers to set out restrictions on water resource
development in the area. 相似文献
MODFLOW is a groundwater modeling program. It can be compiled and remedied according to the practical applications. Because
of its structure and fixed data format, MODFLOW can be integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology for
water resource management. The North China Plain (NCP), which is the politic, economic and cultural center of China, is facing
with water resources shortage and water pollution. Groundwater is the main water resource for industrial, agricultural and
domestic usage. It is necessary to evaluate the groundwater resources of the NCP as an entire aquifer system. With the development
of computer and internet information technology it is also necessary to integrate the groundwater model with the GIS technology.
Because the geological and hydrogeological data in the NCP was mainly in MAPGIS format, the powerful function of GIS of disposing
of and analyzing spatial data and computer languages such as Visual C and Visual Basic were used to define the relationship
between the original data and model data. After analyzing the geological and hydrogeological conditions of the NCP, the groundwater
flow numerical simulation modeling was constructed with MODFLOW. On the basis of GIS, a dynamic evaluation system for groundwater
resources under the internet circumstance was completed. During the process of constructing the groundwater model, a water
budget was analyzed, which showed a negative budget in the NCP. The simulation period was from 1 January 2002 to 31 December
2003. During this period, the total recharge of the groundwater system was 49,374 × 106 m3 and the total discharge was 56,530 × 106 m3 the budget deficit was −7,156 × 106 m3. In this integrated system, the original data including graphs and attribution data could be stored in the database. When
the process of evaluating and predicting groundwater flow was started, these data were transformed into files that the core
program of MODFLOW could read. The calculated water level and drawdown could be displayed and reviewed online. 相似文献
A newly developed, multistage quick-look methodology allows for the efficient screening of an unmanageably large number of
reservoirs to generate a workable set of sites that closely match the requirements for optimal CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) storage. The objective of the study is to quickly identify miscible CO2 EOR candidates in areas that contain thousands of reservoirs and to estimate additional oil recovery and sequestration capacities
of selected top options through dimensionless modeling and reservoir characterization. Quick-look assessments indicate that
the CO2 EOR resource potential along the US Gulf Coast is 4.7 billion barrels, and CO2 sequestration capacity is 2.6 billion metric tons. In the first stage, oil reservoirs are screened and ranked in terms of
technical and practical feasibility for miscible CO2 EOR. The second stage provides quick estimates of CO2 EOR potential and sequestration capacities. In the third stage, a dimensionless group model is applied to a selected set
of sites to improve the estimates of oil recovery and storage potential using appropriate inputs for rock and fluid properties,
disregarding reservoir architecture and sweep design. The fourth stage validates and refines the results by simulating flow
in a model that describes the internal architecture and fluid distribution in the reservoir. The stated approach both saves
time and allows more resources to be applied to the best candidate sites. 相似文献
Geologic storage of CO2 is expected to produce plumes of large areal extent, and some leakage may occur along fractures, fault zones, or improperly
plugged pre-existing wellbores. A review of physical and chemical processes accompanying leakage suggests a potential for
self-enhancement. The numerical simulations presented here confirm this expectation, but reveal self-limiting features as
well. It seems unlikely that CO2 leakage could trigger a high-energy run-away discharge, a so-called “pneumatic eruption,” but present understanding is insufficient
to rule out this possibility. The most promising avenue for increasing understanding of CO2 leakage behavior is the study of natural analogues. 相似文献
A screening and ranking framework (SRF) has been developed to evaluate potential geologic carbon dioxide (CO2) storage sites on the basis of health, safety, and environmental (HSE) risk arising from CO2 leakage. The approach is based on the assumption that CO2 leakage risk is dependent on three basic characteristics of a geologic CO2 storage site: (1) the potential for primary containment by the target formation; (2) the potential for secondary containment
if the primary formation leaks; and (3) the potential for attenuation and dispersion of leaking CO2 if the primary formation leaks and secondary containment fails. The framework is implemented in a spreadsheet in which users
enter numerical scores representing expert opinions or published information along with estimates of uncertainty. Applications
to three sites in California demonstrate the approach. Refinements and extensions are possible through the use of more detailed
data or model results in place of property proxies. 相似文献
This paper reports a preliminary investigation of CO2 sequestration and seal integrity at Teapot Dome oil field, Wyoming, USA, with the objective of predicting the potential risk
of CO2 leakage along reservoir-bounding faults. CO2 injection into reservoirs creates anomalously high pore pressure at the top of the reservoir that could potentially hydraulically
fracture the caprock or trigger slip on reservoir-bounding faults. The Tensleep Formation, a Pennsylvanian age eolian sandstone
is evaluated as the target horizon for a pilot CO2 EOR-carbon storage experiment, in a three-way closure trap against a bounding fault, termed the S1 fault. A preliminary geomechanical
model of the Tensleep Formation has been developed to evaluate the potential for CO2 injection inducing slip on the S1 fault and thus threatening seal integrity. Uncertainties in the stress tensor and fault
geometry have been incorporated into the analysis using Monte Carlo simulation. The authors find that even the most pessimistic
risk scenario would require ∼10 MPa of excess pressure to cause the S1 fault to reactivate and provide a potential leakage
pathway. This would correspond to a CO2 column height of ∼1,500 m, whereas the structural closure of the Tensleep Formation in the pilot injection area does not exceed
100 m. It is therefore apparent that CO2 injection is not likely to compromise the S1 fault stability. Better constraint of the least principal stress is needed to
establish a more reliable estimate of the maximum reservoir pressure required to hydrofracture the caprock. 相似文献
H2O-undersaturated melting experiments of synthesized basalt (SiO2 = 50.7 wt.%, MgO = 8.3 wt.%, Mg# = 60) were conducted at fO2 corresponding to NNO+1 and NNO−1 to clarify the effects of pressure (2–7 kbar) and H2O on fractional crystallization in island arcs. H2O content was ranged from nominally anhydrous to 4.4 wt.%. Differentiation trends, namely the liquid lines of descent, change
sensitively according to pressure-H2O relations. Tholeiitic differentiation trends are reproduced with H2O ≤ ∼2 wt.% in primary magma. With such quantities of H2O, fractional crystallization is controlled by olivine + plagioclase at 2 kbar. Increasing the pressure from 2 to ≥4 kbar
induces early crystallization of orthopyroxene instead of olivine and therefore SiO2 enrichment in the residual melts is suppressed. Increasing H2O (≥ ∼2 wt.% in primary magma) stabilizes clinopyroxene relative to orthopyroxene and/or magnetite. Although the phase relations
and proportions strongly depend on fO2 and H2O content, differentiation trends are always calc-alkaline. 相似文献