预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。     

Fracture analysis in the south-western Corinth rift (Greece) and implications on fault hydraulic behavior

This paper reviews the data concerning the fracture network and the hydraulic characteristics of faults in an active zone of the Gulf of Corinth. Pressure gap measured through fault planes shows that in this area the active normal faults (Aigion, Helike) act, at least temporarily and locally, as transversal seal. The analysis of the carbonate cements in the fractures on both the hangingwall and the footwall of the faults also suggests that they have acted as local seals during the whole fault zone evolution. However, the pressure and the characteristics of the water samples measured in the wells indicate that meteoric water circulates from the highest part of the relief to the coast, which means it goes through the fault zones. Field quantitative analysis and core studies from the AIG-10 well have been performed to define both regional and fault-related fracture networks. Then laboratory thin section observations have been done to recognize the different fault rocks characterizing the fault zone components. These two kinds of approach give information on the permeability characteristics of the fault zone. To synthesize the data, a schematic conceptual 3D fluid flow modeling has been performed taking into account fault zone permeability architecture, sedimentation, fluid flow, fault vertical offset and meteoric water influx, as well as compaction water flow. This modeling allows us to fit all the data with a model where the fault segments act as a seal whereas the relays between these segments allow for the regional flow from the Peloponnese topographic highs to the coast.     

Subsurface thermal and hydrothermal characterization based on geothermal resources map, drill hole thermal gradients, Curie point depths and hypocenter distribution — Examples of Tohoku district, Japan

Subsurface thermal structure in Tohoku district are characterized by existing data such as geothermal resources maps, drill hole thermal gradients, Curie point depths and hypocenters distribution maps. The collected data are registered in a database system, then, compared in plan view, cross-section and bird's-eye pictures. The comparison indicates that subsurface temperatures extrapolated from drill hole thermal gradients are generally concordant to the Curie point depth, assumed to be 650 °C. Tohoku district is generally divided into 5 type areas; fore arc lowland, fore arc mountain country, Quaternary volcanic terrain, back arc lowland and back arc mountain country. The surface thermal manifestations in Quaternary volcanic terrain are mainly controlled by the magma chambers as heat sources, while, surface thermal features such as hot springs in non-volcanic areas are controlled by degrees of heat flows, and hydrothermal flows in permeable Cenozoic formations and along permeable fault zones.     

Hydrogen isotope of individual n-alkanes from modern sediments and their application to environments

Hydrogen isotopes are commonly fractionated to a much greater extent and as a result display larger variations in δ values, In terms of the hydrogen isotope ratios of individual n-alkanes of 16 samples of modern sediments selected from four different locations in the southern part of Gansu, China, the δD values for most of the n-alkanes varied from -150‰-300‰, Variations in δD also occurred between different ranges of n-alkanes, effects of environmental changes on the hydrogen isotopic compositions of individual n-alkanes have been detected. Besides the δD values of n-alkanes, the δD values of lipids including pristane （Pr）, phytane （Ph） were also examined, by the combination of D/H ratios with molecular fingerprinting, Our results further support the notion that hydrogen isotopes of n-alkanes from modern sediments can act as paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental proxies and provide invaluable new sources of information in the research of paleoenvironment reconstruction.     

Stratigraphic evolution of a fluvial–eolian succession: The example of the Upper Jurassic—Lower Cretaceous Guará and Botucatu formations, Paraná Basin, Southernmost Brazil

The Guará and Botucatu formations comprise an 80 to 120 m thick continental succession that crops out on the western portion of the Rio Grande do Sul State (Southernmost Brazil). The Guará Formation (Upper Jurassic) displays a well-defined facies shift along its outcrop belt. On its northern portion it is characterised by coarse-grained to conglomeratic sandstones with trough and planar cross-bedding, as well as low-angle lamination, which are interpreted to represent braided river deposits. Southwards these fluvial facies thin out and interfinger with fine- to medium-grained sandstones with large-scale cross-stratification and horizontal lamination, interpreted as eolian dune and eolian sand sheets deposits, respectively. The Botucatu Formation is characterised by large-scale cross-strata formed by successive climbing of eolian dunes, without interdune and/or fluvial accumulation (dry eolian system). The contact between the Guará and the Botucatu formations is delineated by a basin-wide deflation surface (supersurface). The abrupt change in the depositional conditions that took place across this supersurface suggests a major climate change, from semi-arid (Upper Jurassic) to hyper-arid (Lower Cretaceous) conditions. A rearrangement of the Paraná Basin depocenters is contemporaneous to this climate change, which seems to have changed from a more restrict accumulation area in the Guará Formation to a wider sedimentary context in the Botucatu Formation.     

2D Self-Potential tomographies for studying groundwater flows in the Varco d''Izzo landslide (Basilicata, southern Italy)

A geoelectrical monitoring activity has been carried out to improve the geological and hydrogeological knowledge about the Varco d'Izzo landslide (Potenza, Basilicata, Southern Apennine, Italy), an active rotational–translational slide evolved in earth-flow. In this work we have focused on the Self-Potential (SP) method by applying three different SP measuring techniques and combining modern technologies for data acquisition and new methods for tomographic inversion. A SP map and three static SP tomographies have been carried out to better analyse the groundwater circulation system and to better reconstruct the geometry of the landslide body. In the accumulation zone, which is the area more exposed to the geomorphological activity, a new SP measuring strategy has been applied. This strategy, based on time-continuous 2D SP tomographies, helps identify water flow changes in subsurface by studying the time series of SP tomographic images. The analysis of time-dependent changes of water infiltration in near surface is the key to better understand the hydrogeological processes underlying the ground instability phenomena. The time-lapse analysis of tomographic images has allowed us not only to investigate the correlation between the temporal changes of SP signals and rainfall events, but also to quantify the range of these changes. The modification of the distribution of the SP source accumulation zones is associated with the dynamics of the groundwater flows. These preliminary results allow us to consider the SP tomographic method as a tool for geophysical monitoring of landslide areas and encourage to develop new measuring systems for near-real time applications.     

Effect of a submerged bay-mouth breakwater on tsunami behavior analyzed by 2D/3D hybrid model simulation

The hybrid numerical model had been developed to simulate a complicated 3D flow around structures generated by tsunami. In the model, the conventional 2D model is adopted for the wide region far from structures and the 3D non-hydrostatic pressure model is used in the limited region adjacent to structures. The applicability of the model is shown by comparisons of the numerical results with the experimental results of the laboratory model tests and the numerical analysis results of the conventional whole 2D simulation. In addition, the effect of a submerged structure at the opening of a breakwater is discussed from the numerical simulations by the hybrid model. The submerged structure improves the stability of the rubble mound and reduces the tsunami inflow into the bay, while it increases the water surface velocity around the opening of the breakwater. The increase of surface velocity causes the increases of impulsive forces by collision with drafts and so on.     

R＆D投入的区位模式与区域经济发展

基于对中国R＆D投入的区位模式的实证检验，从投入一产出绩效的角度认为集中投入的区位模式具有较强的适宜性。利用聚类分析技术，按照R＆D的投入强度和及其对经济的带动效应、科技化效应、产业化效应将中国各省区划分为6类地区，具有代表性的是科技化模式和产业化模式。其中前者适合于技术存置较高的少数地区，而后者具有较强的借鉴意义。     

Ultra-rapid landscape response and sediment yield following glacier retreat, Icy Bay, southern Alaska

The páramo is a neotropical alpine ecosystem that covers more than 75,000 km² of the northern Andes of Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Peru. It provides important environmental services: more than 10 million people in the Andean highlands benefit from the water supply and regulation function, which is attributed to the volcanic soils that underlie the ecosystem. The soils are also major carbon sinks of global significance. Severe land use changes and soil degradation threaten both the hydrology and carbon sink function. Nevertheless, soil genesis and properties in the páramo is rather poorly understood, nor are their ecological functions well documented. The impact of the geomorphology of the páramo on soil genesis was studied in the rio Paute basin, south Ecuador. Two toposequences were described and analysed. In each toposequence, four pedons were selected representing summit, backslope, undrained plain situation, and valley bottom positions in the landscape. The soils are classified as Hydric Andosols in the World Reference Base for Soil Resources and Epiaquands or Hydrudands in Soil Taxonomy. They are very acidic and have a high organic matter content, high P deficiency, and Al toxicity. Their water content ranges from 2.64 g g^− 1 at saturation, down to 1.24 g g^− 1 at wilting point, resulting in a large water storage capacity. Two major soil forming processes are identified: (1) volcanic ash deposition and (2) accumulation of organic carbon. Volcanic ash deposits may vary in depth as a result of regional geomorphological factors such as parent material, orientation, slope, and altitude. Organic carbon accumulation is an interaction of both waterlogging, which depends on the position in the landscape, and the formation of organometallic complexes with Al and Fe released during volcanic ash breakdown. Despite the high variability in parent material and topography, the soil is characterised by a notable homogeneity in physico-chemical properties. Statistical analysis reveals that only topographic location has a slight but significant influence on soil pH as well as the organic matter content, saturated conductivity and water retention at high pressure. Finally, the exceptional properties of these soils provide useful insights to improve classification of the Andosols reference group of the FAO World reference Base for Soil Resources.