从第22届IUGG大会看地震预测研究

1999年 7月 19～ 3 0日 ,第 2 2届 IUGG大会在英国伯明翰大学举行。从提交的论文中可以看出 ,有关地震预测和地震灾害的研究仍是地学界关注的热点问题。文章介绍了这次大会反映出的有关地震预测研究的情况。     

Intrinsic and attenuative dispersion characteristics of direct P-waves in and near the source area of the 1999 MW7.6 Chi-Chi,Taiwan, earthquake before and after the mainshock

Based on the measurement of the arrival time of maxima magnitude from band-pass filtering signals which were determined using a new Morlet wavelet multiple-filter method, we develop a method for measuring intrinsic and attenuative dispersion of the first cycle direct P-wave. We determine relative group delays of spectral components of direct P-waves for 984 ray paths from SML and ALS stations of the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau Seismic Network (CWBSN). Using continuous relaxation model, we deduce a new transfer function that relates intrinsic dispersion to attenuation. Based on the genetic algorithm (GA), we put forward a new inversion procedure for determining which is defined the flat part of quality factor Q(ω) spectrum, τ₁ and τ₂ parameters. The results indicate that ① The distribution of Q_m values versus epicentral distance and depth show that Q_m values linearly increase with increasing of epicentral distance and depth, and Q_m values is clearly independent of earthquakes magnitude; ② In the different depth ranges, Q_m residual show no correlation with variations in epicentral distance. Some significant changes of Q_m residual with time is likely caused by pre-seismic stress accumulation, and associated with fluid-filled higher density fractures rock volume in the source area of 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake. We confirm that Q_m residual with time anomaly appears about 2.5 years before the Chi-Chi earthquake; ③ A comparison of Q_m residual for different depth range between SML and ALS stations show that the level of stress has vertical and lateral difference; ④ The area near observation station with both anomalously increasing and decreasing averaged Q_m residual is likely an unstable environment for future strong earthquake occurrence. This study demonstrates the capability of direct P-waves dispersion for monitoring attenuation characteristics and its state changes of anelastic medium of the Earth at short propagation distance using seismograms recorded from very small events.

     

Co-seismic displacements, folding and shortening structures along the Chelungpu surface rupture zone occurred during the 1999 Chi-Chi (Taiwan) earthquake

A nearly 100-km-long surface rupture zone, called Chelungpu surface rupture zone, occurred mostly along the pre-existing Chelungpu fault on the northwestern side of Taiwan, accompanying the 1999 Chi-Chi Ms 7.6 earthquake. The Chelungpu surface rupture zone can be divided into four segments based on the characteristics of co-seismic displacements, geometry of the surface ruptures and geological structures. These segments generally show a right-step en echelon form and strike NE–SW to N–S, and dip to the east with angles ranging from 50 to 85°. The co-seismic flexural-slip folding structures commonly occurred in or near the surface rupture zone from a few meters to a few hundreds of meters in width, which have an orientation in fold axes parallel or oblique to the surface rupture zone. The displacements measured in the southern three segments are approximately 1.0–3.0 m horizontally and 2.0–4.0 m vertically. The largest displacements were measured in the northern segment, 11.1 m horizontally and 7.5 m vertically, respectively. The amount of co-seismic horizontal shortening caused by flexural-slip folding and reverse faulting in the surface rupture zone is generally less than 3 m. It is evident that the co-seismic displacements of the surface rupture zone are a quantitative surface indicator of the faulting process in the earthquake source fault. The relations between the geometry and geomorphology of the surface rupture zone, dips of the co-seismic faulting planes and the striations on the main fault planes generated during the co-seismic displacement, show that the Chelungpu surface rupture zone is a reverse fault zone with a large left-lateral component.     

S-wave velocity structures of sediments estimated from array microtremor records and site responses in the near-fault region of the 1999 Chi-Chi,Taiwan earthquake

The 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake, M_W = 7.6, caused severe damage in the near-fault region of the earthquake. In order to evaluate site effects in the near-field strong motions we estimate S-wave velocity structures of sediments at four sites using array records of microtremors. We also recalculated S-wave velocity structures at other four sites previously reported. To show the validity of the estimated S-wave velocity structures we separate empirical site responses from aftershock records using the generalized inversion method and show the agreement between empirical and theoretical site responses. We also show an observed fact that suggests soil nonlinearity during the Chi-Chi earthquake by comparing horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVRs) for main shock records with HVRs for aftershock records. Then we calculate one-dimensional equivalent-linear site responses using the estimated S-wave velocity structures and the main shock records observed on the surface. It is found that site amplification due to thick (about 6 km) sediments is one of the important factors for explaining the long-period velocity pulses of about 5 to 10 sec observed at sites in the footwall during the Chi-Chi earthquake. It is also found that the theoretical site responses of shallow soft sediments at sites that sustained severe damage in the hanging wall shows significant amplification around 1 sec. As the amplitude of velocity pulses with period around 1 sec is most critical in causing damage to ordinary buildings of moderate heights, our results suggest that the 1-sec period velocity pulses, amplified by the site response of shallow sediments should contribute to the severe damage during the Chi-Chi earthquake.     

Characteristics of amplitude and duration for near fault strong ground motion from the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan Earthquake

A great number of free-field ground motion records are obtained during the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake. Records from 130 near fault free-field stations within 55 km to the causative fault surface are used as database, and characteristics of earthquake peak ground acceleration, velocity, displacement and duration are analyzed. According to this study, near fault ground motions are strongly affected by distance to fault, fault rupture directivity, site condition, as well as thrust of hanging wall. Compared with empirical strong ground motion attenuation relations used in China, US and Japan, the PGAs and PGVs recorded in this earthquake are not as large as what we have expected for a large earthquake as magnitude 7.6. However, the largest PGV and PGD worldwide were recorded in this event, which are 292 cm/s and 867 cm, respectively. Caused by nonlinear site effects of soil, peaks and corresponding ratios on E-class site were markedly different from those on other sites. Just as observed in historic earthquakes, fault rupture directivity effects caused significant differences between peaks of ground motion of two horizontal components, but took very slight effects on the duration of ground motion. The significant velocity pulses associated with large PGVs and PGDs, as well as large permanent displacements, which may result from the large thrust of the hanging wall, became the outstanding character of this event. Based on this study, we point out that 3D waveform modeling is needed to understand and predict near fault ground motion of large earthquakes.     

用小波法研究台湾省两次7.6级大震前后仑坪台的地磁变化

用小波法分析了台湾省两次Ms 7．6大震(1986年花莲大震和1999年集集大震)前后仑坪台的地磁变化。从小波分析得出的“日变幅差”变化看,两次大地震前一个月内都有异常变化,花莲地震前出现负异常,集集地震前出现正异常。     

Searching for water ice on 47171 1999 TC36, 1998 SG35, and 2000 QC243: ESO large program on TNOs and centaurs

Transneptunian objects and Centaurs are supposed to be among the most pristine bodies of the Solar System. To investigate their physical properties and their surface composition, an ESO large program at the Very Large Telescope was carried out. In this paper we present photometric and spectroscopic near-infrared data of two Centaurs (1998 SG35 and 2000 QC243) and one transneptunian object (47171 1999 TC36). For 47171 1999 TC36 and 1998 SG35 visible photometry is also presented. Models of the surface composition of these objects are presented and discussed. By including a small percentage of water ice in our geographical mixtures, we obtain a better agreement with the observations in the H and K bands.     

Intrinsic and attenuative dispersion characteristics of direct P-waves in and near the source area of the 1999 MW7.6 Chi-Chi,Taiwan,earth-quake before and after the mainshock

Based on the measurement of the arrival time of maxima magnitude from band-pass filtering signals which were determined using a new Morlet wavelet multiple-filter method,we develop a method for measuring intrinsic and attenuative dispersion of the first cycle direct P-wave.We determine relative group delays of spectral components of direct P-waves for 984 ray paths from SML and ALS stations of the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau Seismic Network(CWBSN).Using continuous relaxation model,we deduce a new transfer...