Effects of dynamic shear strength and time-histories stress analysis on newmark sliding block analyses

A simplified procedure for evaluating aseismic stability of slope subjected to earthquake shaking, in which the effect of dynamic shear strength and time-history stress on the yielding angular acceleration of sliding block is taken into account, is presented. The fundamental feature of this procedure is the dynamic shear strength. The numerical computations are performed by using the proposed method. It is shown that the computed sliding displacement for a given core dam, with either method of dynamic shear strength properly considered, is more rational compared with the conventional computational results based on static shear strength.     

Carbonates calibrated against oceanographic parameters along a latitudinal transect in the Gulf of California, Mexico

Trophic resources are an important control governing carbonate production. Though this importance has long been recognized, no calibration exists to quantitatively compare biogenic assemblages within trophic resource fields. This study presents a field calibration of carbonate producers in a range of settings against high‐resolution in situ measurements of nutrients, temperature and salinity. With its latitudinal extent from 30° to 23° N, the Gulf of California, Mexico, spans the warm‐temperate realm and encompasses nutrient regimes from oligo‐mesotrophic in the south to eutrophic in the north. Accordingly, from south to north carbonates are characterized by: (i) coral‐dominated shallow carbonate factories (5–20 m water depth) with average sea‐surface temperatures of 25 °C (min. 18 °C, max. 31 °C), average salinities of 35·06‰ and average chlorophyll a levels, which are a proxy for nutrients, of 0·25 mg Chl a m^?3 (max. 0·48, min. 0·1). (ii) Red algal‐dominated subtidal to inner‐shelf carbonate formation (10–25 m) in the central Gulf of California exhibiting average temperatures of 23 °C (min. 18 °C, max. 30 °C), average salinities of 35·25‰, and average Chl a levels of 0·71 Chl a m^?3 (max. 5·62, min. 0). (iii) Molluskan bryozoan‐rich inner to outer shelf factories in the northern Gulf of California (20–50 m) with average sea surface temperatures of only 20 °C (min. 13 °C, max 29 °C), average salinities of 35·01‰, and average contents of 2·2 mg Chl a m^?3 (max. 8·38, min. 0). By calibrating sedimentological data with in situ measured oceanographic information in different environments, the response of carbonate producers to environmental parameters was established and extrapolated to carbonates on a global scale. The results demonstrate the importance of recognizing and quantifying trophic resources as a dominant control determining the biogenic composition and facies character of both modern and fossil carbonates.     

Hydrology and hydrogeology of Sakaryabaşı Karstic springs, Çifteler, Turkey

The Sakarya River is one of the largest rivers in Turkey and is fed mainly from Sakaryabaşı springs. The Sakaryabaşı springs are located in the Central Anatolia and issue from confined/semi-confined karst having a thermal component and therefore, having quite different hydrogeological characteristics as compared to the Taurus Karst region, a typical example of the Mediterranean type of karst. The karstic carbonate rocks that form the groundwater reservoir are overlain by a thick semi-pervious overburden of mainly clastics of Neogene age. Tectonics is the major factor controlling the occurrence of the karst springs in the area where topography is rather flat. This study aimed at explaining the occurrence and movement of the karst groundwater within the system by use of hydrogeological, chemical, and isotopic tools. Isotopic composition of the waters revealed that all waters in the region are of meteoric origin and the thermal component is due to deep circulation. The catchment area of the hydrogeological system extends to the south and groundwater movement is towards the outlets, which are in a depression along a major fault. The movement of the groundwater, based on analysis of remotely sensed images, is controlled mainly by structural elements.     

Correlations in aftershock and seismicity patterns

Correlations in space and time play a fundamental role in earthquake processes. One direct manifestation of the effects of correlations is the occurrence of aftershocks due to the stress transfer in the vicinity of a main shock. Less obvious and more speculative changes in correlations may occur in the background seismicity before large earthquakes. Using statistical physics it is possible to introduce a measure of spatial correlations through a correlation length. This quantity characterizes how local fluctuations can influence the occurrence of earthquakes over distances comparable with the correlation length. In this work, the physical basis of spatial correlations of earthquakes is discussed in the context of critical phenomena and the percolation problem. The method of two-point correlation function is applied to the seismicity of California. Well defined variations in time of the correlation length are found for aftershock sequences and background seismicity. The scaling properties of our obtained distributions are analyzed with respect to changes in several scaling parameters such as lower magnitude cutoff of earthquakes, the maximum time interval between earthquakes, and the spatial size of the area considered. This scaling behavior can be described in a unified manner by utilizing the multifractal fit. Utilizing the percolation approach the time evolution of clusters of earthquakes is studied with the correlation length defined in terms of the radius of gyration of clusters. This method is applied to the seismicity of California.     

Non-volcanic deep low-frequency tremors accompanying slow slips in the southwest Japan subduction zone

Non-volcanic deep low-frequency tremors in southwest Japan exhibit a strong temporal and spatial correlation with slow slip detected by the dense seismic network. The tremor signal is characterized by a low-frequency vibration with a predominant frequency of 0.5–5 Hz without distinct P- or S-wave onset. The tremors are located using the coherent pattern of envelopes over many stations, and are estimated to occur near the transition zone on the plate boundary on the forearc side along the strike of the descending Philippine Sea plate. The belt-like distribution of tremors consists of many clusters. In western Shikoku, the major tremor activity has a recurrence interval of approximately six months, with each episode lasting over a week. The tremor source area migrates during each episode along the strike of the subducting plate with a migration velocity of about 10 km/day. Slow slip events occur contemporaneously with this tremor activity, with a coincident estimated source area that also migrates during each episode. The coupling of tremor and slow slip in western Shikoku is very similar to the episodic tremor and slip phenomenon reported for the Cascadia margin in northwest North America. The duration and recurrence interval of these episodes varies between tremor clusters even on the same subduction zone, attributable to regional difference in the frictional properties of the plate interface.     

3-D seismic structure of the source area of the 1993 Latur, India, earthquake and its implications for rupture nucleations

The Latur earthquake (M_w 6.1) of 29 September 1993 is a rare stable continental region (SCR) earthquake that occurred on a previously unknown blind fault. In this study, we determined detailed three-dimensional (3-D) P- and S-wave velocity (V_p, V_s) and Poisson's ratio (σ) structures by inverting the first P- and S-wave high-quality arrival time data from 142 aftershocks that were recorded by a network of temporary seismic stations. The source zone of the Latur earthquake shows strong lateral heterogeneities in V_p, V_s and σ structures, extending in a volume of about 90 × 90 × 15 km³. The mainshock occurred within, but near the boundary, of a low-V_p, high-V_s and low-σ zone. This suggests that the structural asperities at the mainshock hypocenter are associated with a partially fluid-saturated fractured rock in a previously unknown source zone with intersecting fault surfaces. This might have triggered the 1993 Latur mainshock and its aftershock sequence. Our results are in good agreement with other geophysical studies that suggest high conductivity and high concentration of radiogenic helium gas beneath the source zone of the Latur earthquake. Our study provides an additional evidence for the presence of fluid related anomaly at the hidden source zone of the Latur earthquake in the SCR and helps us understand the genesis of damaging earthquakes in the SCR of the world.     

Effects of magnetic interactions in anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility: Models, experiments and implications for igneous rock fabrics quantification

Besides granites of the ilmenite series, in which the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) is mainly controlled by paramagnetic minerals, the AMS of igneous rocks is commonly interpreted as the result of the shape-preferred orientation of unequant ferromagnetic grains. In a few instances, the anisotropy due to the distribution of ferromagnetic grains, irrespective of their shape, has also been proposed as an important AMS source. Former analytical models that consider infinite geometry of identical and uniformly magnetized and coaxial particles confirm that shape fabric may be overcome by dipolar contributions if neighboring grains are close enough to each other to magnetically interact. On these bases we present and experimentally validate a two-grain macroscopic numerical model in which each grain carries its own magnetic anisotropy, volume, orientation and location in space. Compared with analytical predictions and available experiments, our results allow to list and quantify the factors that affect the effects of magnetic interactions. In particular, we discuss the effects of (i) the infinite geometry used in the analytical models, (ii) the intrinsic shape anisotropy of the grains, (iii) the relative orientation in space of the grains, and (iv) the spatial distribution of grains with a particular focus on the inter-grain distance distribution. Using documented case studies, these findings are summarized and discussed in the framework of the generalized total AMS tensor recently introduced by Cañon-Tapia (Cañon-Tapia, E., 2001. Factors affecting the relative importance of shape and distribution anisotropy in rocks: theory and experiments. Tectonophysics, 340, 117–131.). The most important result of our work is that analytical models far overestimate the role of magnetic interaction in rock fabric quantification. Considering natural rocks as an assemblage of interacting and non-interacting grains, and that the effects of interaction are reduced by (i) the finite geometry of the interacting clusters, (ii) the relative orientation between interacting grains, (iii) their heterogeneity in orientation, shape and bulk susceptibility, and (iv) their inter-distance distribution, we reconcile analytical models and experiments with real case studies that minimize the role of magnetic interaction onto the measured AMS. Limitations of our results are discussed and guidelines are provided for the use of AMS in geological interpretation of igneous rock fabrics where magnetic interactions are likely to occur.     

A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.     

The Gibraltar Arc seismogenic zone (part 2): Constraints on a shallow east dipping fault plane source for the 1755 Lisbon earthquake provided by tsunami modeling and seismic intensity

The Great Lisbon earthquake has the largest documented felt area of any shallow earthquake and an estimated magnitude of 8.5–9.0. The associated tsunami ravaged the coast of SW Portugal and the Gulf of Cadiz, with run-up heights reported to have reached 5–15 m. While several source regions offshore SW Portugal have been proposed (e.g.— Gorringe Bank, Marquis de Pombal fault), no single source appears to be able to account for the great seismic moment as well as all the historical tsunami amplitude and travel time observations. A shallow east dipping fault plane beneath the Gulf of Cadiz associated with active subduction beneath Gibraltar, represents a candidate source for the Lisbon earthquake of 1755.Here we consider the fault parameters implied by this hypothesis, with respect to total slip, seismic moment, and recurrence interval to test the viability of this source. The geometry of the seismogenic zone is obtained from deep crustal studies and can be represented by an east dipping fault plane with mean dimensions of 180 km (N–S) × 210 km (E–W). For 10 m of co-seismic slip an Mw 8.64 event results and for 20 m of slip an Mw 8.8 earthquake is generated. Thus, for convergence rates of about 1 cm/yr, an event of this magnitude could occur every 1000–2000 years. Available kinematic and sedimentological data are in general agreement with such a recurrence interval. Tsunami wave form modeling indicates a subduction source in the Gulf of Cadiz can partly satisfy the historical observations with respect to wave amplitudes and arrival times, though discrepancies remain for some stations. A macroseismic analysis is performed using site effect functions calculated from isoseismals observed during instrumentally recorded strong earthquakes in the region (M7.9 1969 and M6.8 1964). The resulting synthetic isoseismals for the 1755 event suggest a subduction source, possibly in combination with an additional source at the NW corner of the Gulf of Cadiz can satisfactorily explain the historically observed seismic intensities. Further studies are needed to sample the turbidites in the adjacent abyssal plains to better document the source region and more precisely calibrate the chronology of great earthquakes in this region.     

Modèles géostatistiques de concentrations ou de débits le long des cours d'eau

Estimating concentrations or flow rates along a stream network requires specific models. Two classes of models, recently proposed in the literature, are generalized, to the intrinsic case in particular. We present a global construction by ‘streams’, i.e. on the whole set of paths between sources and outlet. Combining stationary or intrinsic one-dimensional random functions leads to stationary or intrinsic models on segments, with discontinuities at the forks. A construction from outlet to sources, leads to stationary or intrinsic models on each stream, without any discontinuity at the forks. The linear variogram is found as a particular case. The extension to the linear model of coregionalization is immediate, allowing a multivariate modelling of concentrations. To cite this article: C. de Fouquet, C. Bernard-Michel, C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).