1994年发生在台湾海峡的一次地震海啸的数值模拟

建立了一个地震海啸数值模式,模式包含越洋海啸传播部分和近岸海啸变形部分,在越洋海啸传播部分中采用线性浅水方程,使用蛙跃格式求解,并且选择合适的空间步长与时间步长,使差分格式中产生的数值频散与包辛尼斯克方程中的物理频散一致,这样在不影响海啸数值计算精度的前提下,节省了计算机的机时与内存.在近岸海啸变形部分的计算中,考虑了非线性对流项与海底摩擦项.同时该模式采用了多重网格嵌套技术,提高了所关心地区的计算精度.利用这个地震海啸模式模拟了1994年发生在台湾海峡的一次地震海啸,结果与观测记录较吻合.这个模型已用于我国沿海核电站可能最大地震海啸的数值计算.     

温度对金红色大鳞副泥鳅(Paramisgurnus dabryanus)孵化、仔鱼活力和性别分化的影响

以大鳞副泥鳅(Paramisgurnus dabryanus)新品系“赣红1号”为对象,探究了不同温度(20,23,26,29,32℃)对其受精卵孵化、仔鱼活力和性别分化的影响。结果显示,当温度在20~32℃范围内时,培育周期和孵化周期与温度均呈负相关关系,均随着温度的升高而缩短。培育周期在各温度组间差异显著(P<0.05),孵化周期在29和32℃组间差异不显著,其余各组间均具有显著差异(P<0.05)。随着温度的升高,孵化率先升高后降低,26℃时孵化率达到最高;畸形率呈现与孵化率相反的趋势,26℃时畸形率最低,且显著低于20、29和32℃组(P<0.05);仔鱼的不投饵存活系数(SAI)随着温度的升高而逐渐降低,各组间差异显著(P<0.05),23℃时SAI值为59.77,最大可存活时间为15日龄;此外,雄性率随温度的升高而增加,高温可促进个体趋向雄性发育。研究发现“赣红1号”受精卵孵化、仔鱼活力和性别分化均受到温度的重要影响,结合生产实际和试验数据,其孵化和仔鱼培育的适宜温度应保持在23~26℃。     

广西沿岸海平面变化的关联维数研究

采用相空间重构和关联维数方法，研究了广西沿岸月平均海平面变化的分形特征，结果表明，相空间重构的延迟时间τ为3△t，当关联维数趋于饱和时，石头埠，北海和龙尾的相空间维数为7，而涠洲岛为9，它们的关联维数平均值平均值分别为6.6507,6.5414,6.7059.     

鲈鱼胆汁中芘及代谢产物含量与水体中芘含量的关系

运用GC—MS的方法和荧光分光光度法，研究鲈鱼分别暴露于0．1、1．0和10．0μg／dm^3质量浓度芘溶液中7d，水体中芘及其鲈鱼胆汁中芘和1-羟基芘含量的变化,实验结果显示：(1)鲈鱼对水体中的芘具有非常显著的去除作用。(2)随着芘暴露浓度的增大，鲈鱼对芘的代谢去除作用增强。(3)随着暴露时间的延长和芘暴露浓度的增大，胆汁的1-羟基芘浓度递增。(4)鲈鱼胆汁具有较高的芘浓度，对海水中的芘具有较强的富集作用。(5)鲈鱼胆汁的1-羟基芘及芘的浓度与水体芘浓度均具有很好的相关性，对于指示水体的芘污染程度具有一致性；可作为指示水体芘污染程度的生物标志物。     

SSA1—1型声学水位在长江口潮位站的应用

本文介绍了长江口区水文泥沙概况，举例说明了ＳＳＡ１－１型声水位计在崇头潮位站比测试验和投产应用情况，结果表明该水位计是收集长江口区潮位资料较理想的仪器。     

青岛胶州湾3.2级地震构造背景与控震断裂

本文应用构造分析的方法 ,对青岛胶州湾 3.2级地震发生的地震地质背景和构造背景进行分析。结果表明 :胶州湾 3.2级地震主要受 NEE向郝官庄断裂和 NNW向大沽河断裂控制 ,并根据现代活动断裂的标志 ,对上述 2组断裂活动性特征作了阐述     

Optimum Sample Size to Detect Perturbation Effects: The Importance of Statistical Power Analysis – A Critique

Abstract. The current article describes statistical power analysis as an efficient strategy for the estimation of the optimum sample size. The principle aim is constructively to criticise and enrich the results presented by Mouillot et al. (1999) , who estimate the optimum sample size for evaluating possible perturbations. The authors did not make any reference to statistical power analysis, even though their objective clearly went beyond a simple stock evaluation to assess management strategies in a particular marine ecosystem. Surprisingly, they proposed (a priori) an ANOVA design to test a hypothesis considering both space and temporal scales. However, the authors did not cover important topics related with power analysis and the precautionary principle, both used into environment impact assessment programmes for marine ecosystems. Based on their results and on statistical power analysis, it is demonstrated that the variability (dispersion statistics), a key factor they used to estimate the sample size, is less relevant than the magnitude of perturbation (effect size). Therefore, a greater effort must be devoted to estimate the effect size of a particular phenomenon rather than a desired variability.     

How are large western hemisphere warm pools formed?

During the boreal summer the Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) stretches from the eastern North Pacific to the tropical North Atlantic and is a key feature of the climate of the Americas and Africa. In the summers following nine El Niño events during 1950–2000, there have been five instances of extraordinarily large warm pools averaging about twice the climatological annual size. These large warm pools have induced a strengthened divergent circulation aloft and have been associated with rainfall anomalies throughout the western hemisphere tropics and subtropics and with more frequent hurricanes. However, following four other El Niño events large warm pools did not develop, such that the mere existence of El Niño during the boreal winter does not provide the basis for predicting an anomalously large warm pool the following summer.In this paper, we find consistency with the hypothesis that large warm pools result from an anomalous divergent circulation forced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific, the so-called atmospheric bridge. We also find significant explanations for why large warm pools do not always develop. If the El Niño event ends early in the eastern Pacific, the Pacific warm anomaly lacks the persistence needed to force the atmospheric bridge and the Atlantic portion of the warm pool remains normal. If SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific do not last much beyond February of the following year, then the eastern North Pacific portion of the warm pool remains normal. The overall strength of the Pacific El Niño does not appear to be a critical factor. We also find that when conditions favor a developing atmospheric bridge and the winter atmosphere over the North Atlantic conforms to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern (as in 1957–58 and 1968–69), the forcing is reinforced and the warm pool is stronger. On the other hand, if a positive NAO pattern develops the warm pool may remain normal even if other circumstances favor the atmospheric bridge, as in 1991–92. Finally, we could find little evidence that interactions internal to the tropical Atlantic are likely to mitigate for or against the formation of the largest warm pools, although they may affect smaller warm pool fluctuations or the warm pool persistence.     

Relationship between the seismicity and geologic structure of the Blanco Transform Fault Zone

Morphologic studies of an oceanic transform, the Blanco Transform Fault Zone (BTFZ), have shown it to consist of a series of extensional basins that offset the major strike-slip faults. The largest of the extensional basins, the Cascadia Depression, effectively divides the transform into a northwest segment, composed of several relatively short strike-slip faults, and a southeast segment dominated by fewer, longer faults. The regional seismicity distribution (m _b 4.0) and frequency-magnitude relationships (b-values) of the BTFZ show that the largest magnitude events are located on the southeast segment. Furthermore, estimates of the cumulative seismic moment release and seismic moment release rate along the southeast segment are significantly greater than that of the northwest segment. These observations suggest that slip along the southeast segment is accommodated by a greater number of large magnitude earthquakes. Comparison of the seismic moment rate, derived from empirical estimates, with the seismic moment rate determined from plate motion constraints suggests a difference in the seismic coupling strength between the segments. This difference in coupling may partially explain the disparity in earthquake size distribution. However, the results appear to confirm the relation between earthquake size and fault length, observed along continental strike-slip faults, for this oceanic transform.     

台湾海峡及其西边地区正常地震动态及危险性特征

本文从地震的时，空分布特征，区域应力场动态，能量释放方式，ｂ值及震群特征６个方面研究了台湾海峡及其西边地区地震活动的正常动态及异常特征。结果表明，具有前兆意义的变化模式表现为区域地震活动在时间，空间及功能方面的有序性变化，即：（ａ）地震空间分布由分散转为集中，形成条带或空区；（ｂ）断裂活动由多组转为单一，应力场趋向一致；（display status