中国大陆部分大震前Hurst指数异常变化特征

对中国大陆1970年以来12组7级以上地震进行了前后10年左右地震时间间隔序列的R／S分析，滑动计算其Hurst指数H值。H值的时间进程显示，9组大震前2年左右H值在较为稳定的背景上开始出现异常变化，其异常特征为“下降－低值－回升”，地震大多发生在H值回升的过程中，具有中、短期前兆意义。H值的异常过程揭示了在大震孕震系统内地震活动从无序向有序的时间演化过程。     

断层旋性与地震危险性

文中以“平行同旋走滑断层减震”的观点论证了兰州、北京、昆明这些位于强震活动区的大城市今后百年内不会发生 6 .5级以上地震。以“平行异旋走滑断层加震”的观点解释了西南棱形块体北边界和南边界在发生大震方面相互促进的现象。对于由构造分段求震级来说 ,在遇到不同的横交断层作为分段点时 ,还需考虑将来发震时始破裂点的位置以及发震断层的旋性 ,不然就会造成对震级估计不足 ,继而成为抗震建设的潜在不安全因素。在主震后为了预报余震的强度 ,可应用物理学中的科里奥利力理论 ,应用时必须知道断层类型和旋性。对于走滑断层来说 ,左旋余震弱 ,右旋余震强。例如 1997年藏北玛尼 7.5级地震 ,余震仅为 5 .3级 ,震级偏小 ,因主震为左旋的缘故 ;1976年唐山 7.8级地震 ,余震可达 7.1级 ,因主震是右旋。对于逆断层来说 ,上盘错动方向在当地子午面左侧者余震强度大 ,在右侧者余震强度弱。据此讨论了 1999年台湾南投 7.6级大震余震强度达 7.1级是因为主震为逆断层 ,上盘向西错动。     

The earthquake sequence of May 1951 at Jucuapa, El Salvador

Three earthquakes that happened over two days in May 1951 caused extensive damage to villages in a small area of eastern El Salvador (Central America). Contemporary hypocentral solutions indicated focal depths, confirmed by re-calculations using available seismic data, of the order of 90 km, suggesting events associated with the subducted Cocos plate. Macroseismic observations strongly indicate that the earthquakes were of very shallow focus and this is supported by wave-form modeling and the appearance of seismograms recorded in Guatemala. A re-evaluation of the location and source characteristics for these events is presented, together with a fault plane solution and additional macroseismic evidence. The implications for seismic hazard and risk assessment in Central America, where shallow earthquakes of moderate magnitude, frequently occurring in clusters, pose the greatest threat to settlements which, like the area affected by these events, are concentrated along the axis of Quaternary volcanoes.     

铜街子电站水库诱发地震的判定及最大可能诱发地震震级的估计

对于水库围堰后猛然增加的地震活动，人们普遍关心两个问题，第一是这些地震的成因，第二是这些地震能对大坝安全性带来多大的影响。位于四川省乐山地区的铜街子电站在蓄水后地震活动骤然增高。本文通过对地震活动的分布范围、震源深度、震源机制解以及地震活动与库水水位变化之间的关系判定这些地震系铜街子电站蓄水后所诱发的地震。为了估计该水库所诱发地震的震级上限，本文通过定性预测方法和定量预测方法试图对诱震震级上限给出一个估计，但各手段所给出的结果却不完全一致，这说明目前的预测手段的不完善。在对各手段给出的结果进行综合分析之后，认为铜街子电站最大可能诱发地震震级上限在５．０级左右。当然，也可能以较小震级的震群型形式出现。     

湖州台的近震监测能力

本文根据湖州地震台DD-1地震仪记录的1980—1990年期间Δ<500km的近震资料和仪器放大倍率,利用理论计算Δ—Mmin曲线,b值检验3种方法,对湖州台的近震监测能力进行了估算和评价,得出了该台对目标监测区域内的有效监测震级。最后对区域地震台站的近震监测能力进行了讨论。     

乌鲁木齐—沙湾一带地震活动特点的初步研究

采用b值时间扫描及地震复发周期等统计方法,对乌鲁木齐至沙湾一带1977年以来的地震观测资料进行了计算分析。初步结果表明:研究区域内5.0级以上中强地震发生前,b值均出现不同程度的负异常。利用地震复发周期计算公式和未来地震震级定量计算公式,得到区内不同震级区间的平均复发周期及今后2年左右可能发生的最大地震震级。     

One-station estimates of seismic moments from the mantle magnitudeM m: The case of the regional field (1.5°≤Δ≤15°)

We extend to the regional field of distances the procedure of one-station estimation of seismic moments using the mantle magnitudeM _m, as introduced earlier in the case of teleseismic events. A theoretical analysis of the validity of the asymptotic expansion of normal modes in terms of surface waves, which was used in the development ofM _m, upholds the validity of the algorithm for distances as short as 1.5°. This is confirmed by the analysis of a dataset of 149 GEOSCOPE records obtained at distances ranging from 1.5 to 15°, from earthquakes with moments between 10²⁴ and 2.5×10²⁷ dyn-cm. The performance ofM _m as measured in terms of average residual with respect to published values ofM ₀, and standard deviation of the residuals, is not degraded in this distance range, with respect to the teleseismic case. This indicates that the mantle magnitudeM _mcan be reliably used at regional distances, notably for tsunami warning applications.     

核安全导则中的地震震级划分意义

本文论述了我国核安全导则中对地震进行两级划分的意义,着重讨论了大震在选址地震工作中的作用。最后,结合我国地震条件提出了大震划分的起算标度。     

由构造分段求震级的历史回顾

回顾了由构造分段求震级的方法的发展及特点,介绍了由构造分段过渡到震级的两种定量方法,并就“方法” 中的有关问题做了进一步解释.     

Study of the characteristics of earthquake precursory anomalies of He and H2 Beijing No. 2 Cotton Mill well and their relation with earthquakes

This paper systematically summarized the relation of the abnormal change of He and H₂ dissolved gasses in deep hot-water well at Beijing No. 2 Cotton Mill and their relation with seismicity of the region. An empirical formula for the relation of the precursory anomaly of He and H₂ gasses with the magnitude and occurrence time of earthquake has been derived. Two events of magnitude greater than 5 in North China had been successfully predicted by using this formula. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 490–497, 1993.