Statistical properties of seismicity of fault zones at different evolutionary stages

We perform a systematic parameter space study of the seismic response of a large fault with different levels of heterogeneity, using a 3-D elastic framework within the continuum limit. The fault is governed by rate-and-state friction and simulations are performed for model realizations with frictional and large scale properties characterized by different ranges of size scales. We use a number of seismicity and stress functions to characterize different types of seismic responses and test the correlation between hypocenter locations and the employed distributions of model parameters. The simulated hypocenters are found to correlate significantly with small L values of the rate-and-state friction. The final sizes of earthquakes are correlated with physical properties at their nucleation sites. The obtained stacked scaling relations are overall self-similar and have good correspondence with properties of natural earthquakes.     

统计预测、经验预测、物理预测——近期国际地震预测预报研究的启示

从"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"的角度讨论了世纪之交地震预测预报研究的国际进展。"统计预测"包括地震预测预报方法的统计检验、"统计地震学",以及统计物理在地震预测预报中的应用;"经验预测"包括搜索可能的前兆异常的尝试、建立将可能的前兆异常现象与地震孕育过程联系起来的简单模型、发现对地震预测预报研究具有重要意义的新现象,以及地球介质变化的动态监测试验;"物理预测"包括地震孕育和发生的物理模型、地震断层带性质的观测和实验研究,以及对震源的直接探测和钻探。讨论了"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"之间的关系,对"把经验预测或统计预测变成物理预测"的发展战略提出质疑。     

大地震纬向分布的基本规律与动力学解释

统计了 1 90 0～ 1 999年全球大地震 (M≥ 7.0 )的纬向分布 ,进一步证实了全球大地震的分布的确存在不对称问题 ,北、南半球大地震发生的次数不对称 ,北半球多 ,南半球少 ;二个半球大地震集中分布的区域不对称 ,北半球大地震集中分布的区域为 1 5°～ 55°,南半球集中分布的区域为 0°～ 35°;北半球有 3个明显的大地震分布区间 ,即 1 5°～ 2 0°,35°～ 45°,50°～ 55°;两极地区无大地震。并且导出了计算日、月对地壳纬向水平引潮力达到极值的计算公式 ,根据日、月水平引潮力达到极值时的纬度分布的规律 ,较好地解释了全球大地震分布的不对称问题     

根据构造环境剪应力值水平区分地震和核爆炸

根据地震破裂的断裂力学模式，导出了震源参数与地震发生处的构造环境剪应力值t0之间的函数关系．据此，可以大量计算震源处的构造环境剪应力值或背景应力值．若把核爆炸当作地震来计算，发现核爆炸的t0值平均在20MPa左右，明显地高于同震级地震的t0值．其结果可以作为区分地震与核爆炸的依据．      

强震成组活动与潮汐力调制触发

本文应用构造场体成组震模型的研究结果，探讨了中国大陆Ms≥7．0地震的成组活动的引潮力的调制触发关系。研究表明：我国陆区7级以上强震明显受潮汐力的调制触发，且主要表现为对活跃期内（即成组发生的）7级强震的调制触发。平静期内的7级以上地震基本不受潮汐力触发，而活跃期内82．4％的7级强震发生在受潮汐力触发的月相期，比本底概率高出36．4％。因此，潮汐力的调制触发对于强震活跃期的判断和活跃期内强震的临震（时间）预测有实际意义。文章还分析了潮汐力触发与强震活动的区域动力学环境之间的关系，并用构造场体成组孕震模型讨论了潮汐力对强震活动触发作用的力学机制。     

Discrimination between nuclear explosions and earthquakes based on consideration of tectonic ambient shear stress values

IntroductionFor the need of a nuclear test ban treaty, international society must make great efforts to find effective methods for discrimination between earthquake and nuclear explosion. Thereupon, many methods of discrimination of nuclear explosion appeared. But, at present, there is some uncertainty to discriminate middle or small nuclear explosion (Peppin, McEvilly, 1974; Richards, Zarales, 1990). When we study tectonic ambient shear stress field of Southern California, we find that str…     

A new model on the cause of Tangshan earthquakes in 1976

Introduction The Tangshan earthquake sequence in 1976 is one of most important events in North China. Although nearly thirty years passed and there are some researches on its cause, it is far from the end. Here we introduce two explanations for the cause of Tangshan earthquakes and point out their defects. One is that there is a diamond block in NEE direction in Tangshan region, which is shaped by cutting action of NingheChangli fault, FengtaiYejituo fault, Luanxian fault and Jiyunhe fau…