Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

Some comparisons between mining-induced and laboratory earthquakes

Although laboratory stick-slip friction experiments have long been regarded as analogs to natural crustal earthquakes, the potential use of laboratory results for understanding the earthquake source mechanism has not been fully exploited because of essential difficulties in relating seismographic data to measurements made in the controlled laboratory environment. Mining-induced earthquakes, however, provide a means of calibrating the seismic data in terms of laboratory results because, in contrast to natural earthquakes, the causative forces as well as the hypocentral conditions are known. A comparison of stick-slip friction events in a large granite sample with mining-induced earthquakes in South Africa and Canada indicates both similarities and differences between the two phenomena. The physics of unstable fault slip appears to be largely the same for both types of events. For example, both laboratory and mining-induced earthquakes have very low seismic efficiencies where _a is the apparent stress and is the average stress acting on the fault plane to cause slip; nearly all of the energy released by faulting is consumed in overcoming friction. In more detail, the mining-induced earthquakes differ from the laboratory events in the behavior of as a function of seismic momentM ₀. Whereas for the laboratory events 0.06 independent ofM ₀, depends quite strongly onM ₀ for each set of induced earthquakes, with 0.06 serving, apparently, as an upper bound. It seems most likely that this observed scaling difference is due to variations in slip distribution over the fault plane. In the laboratory, a stick-slip event entails homogeneous slip over a fault of fixed area. For each set of induced earthquakes, the fault area appears to be approximately fixed but the slip is inhomogeneous due presumably to barriers (zones of no slip) distributed over the fault plane; at constant , larger events correspond to larger _a as a consequence of fewer barriers to slip. If the inequality _a / 0.06 has general validity, then measurements of _a =µE _a /M ₀, where is the modulus of rigidity andE _a is the seismically-radiated energy, can be used to infer the absolute level of deviatoric stress at the hypocenter.     

Micromechanics of the velocity and normal stress dependence of rock friction

Among the second-order effects on friction the most important are those of variable normal stress and of slip velocity. Velocity weakening, which is usually considered the source of the stick-slip instability in rock friction, has been observed in velocity stepping experiments with Westerly granite. The friction change, , was –0.01 to –0.008 for a tenfold velocity increase. Using normal closure measurements, we observed dilation upon each increase in sliding rate. We also observed, for the first time, time-dependent closure between surfaces during static loading. The dilation that occurred during the velocity stepping experiment was found to be that expected from the static time-dependent closure phenomenon. This change in closure was used to predict friction change with an elastic contact model. The calculated friction change which results from a change in contact area and asperity interlocking, is in good agreement with the observed velocity dependence of steady-state friction. Variable normal stress during sliding has two effects, first in creating new partial slip contacts and locking some existing fully sliding contacts and second in increasing interlocking, for instance when normal load is suddenly increased. As a result, a transient change in friction occurs upon a sudden change in normal load.     

Subarcsec 10μm imaging of bipolar flow sources

We have started a program of high-resolution (0.4/pixel) 10m imaging of bipolar outflow sources using the 10m camera CAMIRAS. We present recent results obtained at the Canada France Hawaii Telescope which reveal extended emission or IR companions in several luminous objects. The extended emission we detected probably arises from transiently heated very small grains, while the newly discovered companions could contribute significantly to the outflow activity and extended far-IR emission usually attributed to the main optical source.     

Sub-arcsec 10 μm imaging of β pictoris and other star disk candidates

We have used the ESO 10 m camera, TIMMI, to image with a very high angular resolution (PFoV: 0.3; FWHM:0.9) several main-sequence star disk candidates. Information on the -Pictoris dust disk has been obtained in a region largely inaccessible to previous observations: 0–80 AU, with a resolution of about 5 AU after deconvolution. Another promising target for 10 m imaging, 51 Ophiuchi, appears point-like.based on data collected at the European Southern Observatory (ESO), La Silla, Chile     

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.     

Channel overflows of the Pōhue Bay flow,Mauna Loa,Hawai'i: examples of the contrast between surface and interior lava

A number of overflows from a large lava channel and tube system on the southwest rift zone of Mauna Loa were studied. Initial overflows were very low viscosity gas-rich phoehoe evidenced by flow-unit aspect ratios and vesicle sizes and contents. Calculated volumetric flow-rates in the channel range between 80 and 890 m³/s, and those of the overflows between 35 and 110 m³/s. After traveling tens to hundreds of meters the tops of these sheet-like overflows were disrupted into a surface composed of clinker and phoehoe fragments. After these 'a' overflows came to rest, lava from the interiors was able to break out on to the surface as phoehoe. The surface structure of a lava flow records the interaction between the differential shear rate (usually correlated with the volumetric flow-rate) and viscosity-induced resistance to flow. However, the interior of a flow, being better insulated, may react differently or record a later set of emplacement conditions. Clefts of toothpaste lava occurring within fields of clinker on proximal-type 'a' flows also record different shear rates during different times of flow emplacement. The interplay between viscosity and shear rate determines the final morphological lava type, and although no specific portion of lava ever makes a transition from 'a' back to phoehoe, parts of a flow can appear to do so.     

Diagenesis of vascular plant organic matter components during burial in lake sediments

Diagenetic changes are difficult to distinguish from variations in sources of organic matter to sediments. Organic geochemical comparisons of samples of wood, bark, and needles from a white spruce (Picea glauca) living today and one buried for 10,000 years in lake sediments have been used to identify the effects of diagenesis on vascular plant matter. Important biogeochemical changes are evident in the aged spruce components, even though the cellular structures of the samples are well preserved. Concentrations of total fatty acids dramatically diminish; unsaturated and shorter chainlength components are preferentially lost from the molecular distributions. Concentrations of total alcohols are similar in the modern and 10,000-year-old wood and bark but markedly lowered in the aged needles. Hydrocarbon concentrations and distributions show little diagenetic change in the 10,000-year-old plant materials. Cellulose components in the wood decrease relative to lignin components, although both types of materials remain in high concentration in comparison to other organic components. Aromatization of abietic acid proceeds more rapidly in buried spruce wood than in bark; retene is the dominant polyaromatic hydrocarbon in the aged wood. In contrast to the variety of changes evident in molecular compositions, neither ¹³C values nor C/N ratios differ significantly in the bulk organic matter of modern and aged spruce components.     

Geochronology and geochemistry of eclogites from the Mariánské Lázně Complex,Czech Republic: Implications for Variscan orogenesis

The Mariánské Lázn complex (MLC) is located in the Bohemian Massif along the north-western margin of the Teplá-Barrandian microplate and consists of metagabbro, amphibolite and eclogite, with subordinate amounts of serpentinite, felsic gneiss and calcsilicate rocks. The MLC is interpreted as a metaophiolite complex that marks the suture zone between the Saxothuringian rocks to the north-west and the Teplá-Barrandian microplate to the south-east. Sm-Nd geochronology of garnet-omphacite pairs from two eclogite samples yields ages of 377±7, and 367±4 Ma. Samples of eclogite and amphibolite do not define a whole rock Sm-Nd isochron, even though there is a large range in Sm/Nd ratio, implying that the suite of samples may not be cogenetic. Eclogites do not have correlated _Nd values and initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios. Five of the eight eclogite samples have high _Nd values (+10.2 to +7.1) consistent with derivation from a MORB-like source, but variable ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.7033 to 0.7059) which probably reflect hydrothermal seawater alteration. Three other eclogite samples have lower _Nd values (+ 5.4 to –0.8) and widely variable ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.7033 to 0.7096). Such low _Nd values are inconsistent with derivation from a MORB, source and may reflect a subduction or oceanic island basalt component in their source. The MLC is an important petrotectonic element in the Bohemian Massif, providing evidence for Cambro-Ordovician formation of oceanic crust and interaction with seawater, Late Devonian (Frasnian-Famennian) high- and medium-pressure metamorphism related to closure of a Saxothuringian ocean basin, Early Carboniferous (Viséan) thrusting of the Teplá terrane over Saxothuringian rocks and Late Viséan extension.     

Comparison between a radiative wind model for be stars and high angular resolution data from the GI2T interferometer

I present theoretical line profiles and intensity maps from an axi-symmetric radiative wind model from a rapidly rotating Be star. The introduction of a viscosity parameter in the latitude-dependent hydrodynamic code enables us to consider the effects of the viscous force in the azimuthal component of momentum equations (Araújo et al. 1994). Both velocity field and density law derived from the hydrodynamic equations have been used for solving the statistical equilibrium equations. By adopting the Sobolev approximation, we could easily obtain a good estimate of both electronic density and hydrogen level populations throughout the envelope. The numerical calculation was performed for parameters characterisic of the Be star Cassiopeiae.