基于小波分解的西太平洋副热带高压模糊推理预测

基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,讨论了西太平洋副高脊线与其前期位置的相互关系,并在此基础上用小波分解和自适应模糊推理方法,对副高脊线进行集成建模和预测.基于小波分解重构的副高脊线短期活动集成预测结果表明,该方法可有效降低预报难度,明显改进和提高了副高脊线短期活动的预报准确率.     

青藏高原影响亚洲夏季气候研究的最新进展

文中回顾了近 10a来吴国雄等在青藏高原影响亚洲夏季气候研究方面的最新进展。通过分析东西风交界面的演变证明 ,由于青藏高原的春季加热 ,亚洲季风区对流层低层冬季盛行偏东风转变为夏季偏西南风最早发生在孟加拉湾东部 ,与其相伴随的激烈对流降水出现在其东面。因此孟加拉湾东部至中印半岛西部是亚洲季风最早爆发的地区。同时也指出盛夏伊朗高原和青藏高原加热所激发的同相环流嵌套在欧亚大陆尺度的热力环流中 ,从而加强了东亚的夏季风 ,加剧了中西亚的干旱 ;并通过其所激发的波动对夏季东亚的气候格局产生重要影响。文中还比较了夏季南亚高压的伊朗模态和青藏模态性质的异同及其对亚洲夏季降水异常分布的不同影响。     

临汾"8.26"区域性大暴雨过程分析

利用micaps业务平台常规资料、数值预报产品、卫星云图，对临汾市2003年8月26日区域性暴雨和大暴雨的环流背景、影响系统、热带低压登陆副热带高压东退以及物理量条件进行了诊断分析，探讨了副热带高压进退及台风登陆位置在这次大暴雨过程中起到了非常重要的作用。分析结果在暴雨预报业务及暴雨研究中有一定的指示意义。     

2003 年陕西暴雨与西太平洋副热带高压的关系

利用实时资料和中央气象台提供的副热带高压资料,对2003年汛期陕西暴雨和500hPa副热带高压的活动特征关系统计分析,并对ECMWF、T213数值预报产品对副高的预报能力作了客观分析。结果表明,汛期7、8、9月副高偏强,副高脊线在25～28°N、西脊点在104～112°E进退,是陕西关中陕南多阴雨、暴雨频繁的主要原因;陕西连续暴雨产生于副高脊线沿25～28°N持续西伸、持续东移经过105°E时段。ECMWF对副高的进退、热带气旋路径预报准确率较高。     

喜马拉雅中段高压麻粒岩变质作用、地球化学与年代学

研究的高压麻粒岩发现于西藏亚东以北约40公里的(Zherger-La)、出露在藏南拆离系(STDS)主构造面下盘的高喜马拉雅结晶岩系中,是继喜马拉雅东西构造结的Nanga Barbat、Namjag Barwa和喜马拉雅中段Khatra & Marina地区、定结地区发现的榴辉岩或高压麻粒岩之后,在青藏高原上新近发现的高压麻粒岩.该麻粒岩呈岩片被包裹于花岗质片麻岩中.麻粒岩记录了两期变质作用,早期矿物组合为Grt+Cpx+Pl+Qz,属麻粒岩相变质产物,矿物成分分析显示早期矿物组合达到了平衡,并且没有表现成分扩散;后期矿物组合为Hbl+Pl+Bio或Opx+Pl,指示了较高温但相对压力较低的麻粒岩相退变变质作用,矿物成分分析和结构显示了退变作用没有达到变质平衡.显微结构可以观察到多组变质反应Grt+Cpx+Qtz=Opx+Pl,Grt+Qtz=Opx+Pl,Grt+Cpx+L=Hbl+Pl+Bio+Mt,和Cpx+L=Hbl+Mt.根据矿物平衡关系,利用Grt-Cpx温度计和Grt-Cpx-Pl-Qz压力计估算的早期变质作用温压为T=780～850℃,P=12～15kbar,相对应的地温梯度16℃～18℃/km.借用Hbl-Pl温度计和A1tot in Hbl压力计估算的晚期变质作用温压为T=730～760℃;P=4～6kbar,相当的地温梯度为38℃～50℃/km.变质作用P-T演化呈等温降压轨迹,指示麻粒岩地体从增厚(或俯冲)地壳到减薄增温(或部分熔融)地壳,进而被快速剥露地表的构造过程.初步的地球化学结果表明高压麻粒岩原岩可能相当于大陆拉斑玄武岩.麻粒岩锆石SHRIMP年代学有两组相对集中的年龄分别为98±5 Ma(5 spots)和17.0±0.3 Ma(13 spots).高压麻粒岩的两期变质作用的温度都在700℃以上,略高于锆石U-Pb同位素体系计时封闭温度,推断17 Ma是高压麻粒岩变质后发生折返,随高喜马拉雅结晶岩系剥露冷却的年龄;98.4Ma的测年结果被推测是高压麻粒岩原岩形成的年龄.在喜马拉雅山,高压麻粒岩记录了类似增厚地壳到减薄地壳的转变一方面可能是地壳深部作用机制的转变,另一方面,这种机制与喜马拉雅南坡巨大的降雨量和去顶作用有密切关系,意义重大.     

砂砾和卵石地层高压喷射注浆工艺的研究

砂砾和卵石地层高压喷射注浆技术,在20世纪90年代就已应用,但其工艺原理、高喷效果等都有待进一步试验研究.本文根据在这类地层高压喷射注浆试验成果的基础上,分析了高压喷射注浆对地层的作用原理及喷射注浆效果,提出了动水条件粗颗粒地层高压喷射注浆工艺措施.     

水流模拟智能化问题的探讨

对水流模拟的发展历史进行了总结,指出阻碍水流模拟发展的主要问题,提出克服这些瓶颈问题的方法是将智能科学与水利科学交叉融合,实现水流的智能模拟。据此,介绍了水流智能模型理论,结合遗传算法、模糊逻辑、元胞自动机、混沌分析理论、人工神经网络、专家系统、数据挖掘等智能理论和技术,对水流智能模拟的实现途径作了探讨,并指出建造一个优秀的水流模拟智能系统的关键是联合运用各种智能方法,认为智能化是当前水流模拟发展的新方向,水流智能模型将是水利科学的一种新的研究途径,并将在研究水流问题上具有广阔的应用前景。     

Late-Stage Ductile Deformation in Xiongdian-Suhe HP Metamorphic Unit, North-Western Dabie Shan, Central China

New structural and petrological data unveil a very complicated ductile deformation history of the Xiongdian-Suhe HP metamorphic unit, north-western Dabie Shun, central China. The finegrained symplectic amphibolite-facies assemblage and coronal structure enveloping eclogite-facies garnet,omphacite and phengite etc., representing strain-free decompression and retrogressive metamorphism,are considered as the main criteria to distinguish between the early-stage deformation under HP metamorphic conditions related to the continental deep subduction and collision, and the late-stage deformation under amphibolite to greenschist-facies conditions occurred in the post-eclogite exhumation processes.Two late-stages of widely developed, sequential ductile deformations D3 and D4, are recognized on the basis of penetrative fabrics and mineral aggregates in the Xiongdian-Suhe HP metamorphic unit, which shows clear, regionally, consistent overprinting relationships. D3 fabrics are best preserved in the Suhe tract of low post-D3 deformation intensity and characterized by steeply dipping layered mylonitic amphibolites associated with doubly vergent folds. They are attributed to a phase of tectonism linked to the initial exhumation of the HP rocks and involved crustal shortening with the development of upright structures and the widespread emplacement of garnet-bearing granites and felsic dikes. D4 structures are attributed to the main episode of ductile extension (D^24) with a gently dipping foliation to the north and common intrafolial, recumbent folds in the Xiongdian tract, followed by normal sense top-to-the northductile shearing (D^24) along an important tectonic boundary, the so-called Majiawa-Hexiwan fault (MHF), the westward continuation of the Balifan-Mozitan-Xiaotian fault (BMXF) of the northern Dabie Shan. It is indicated that the two stages of ductile deformation observed in the Xiongdian-Suhe HP metamorphic unit, reflecting the post-eclogite compressional or extrusion wedge formation, the subhorizontal ductile extension and crustal thinning as well as the top-to-the north shearing along the high-angle ductile shear zones responsible for exhumation of the HP unit as a coherent slab, are consistent with those recognized in the Dabie-Sulu UHP and HP metamorphic belts, suggesting that they were closely associated in time and space. The Xiongdian-Suhe HP metamorphic unit thus forms part of the Triassic(250-230 Ma) collision orogenic belt, and can not connect with the South Altun-North Qaidam-North Qinline UHP metamorphic belt formed durin~ the Early Paleozoic (500-400Ma).     

GIS Spatial-Temporal Modeling of Water Systems in Greater Toronto Area, Canada

Modeling landscape with high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) in a geographic information system can provide essential morphological and structural information for modeling surface processes such as geomorphologic process and water systems. This paper introduces several DEM-based spatial analysis processes applied to characterize spatial distribution and their interactions of ground and surface water systems in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada. The stream networks and drainage basin systems were derived from the DEM with 30 m resolution and the regularities of the surface stream and drainage patterns were modeled from a statistical/multifractal point of view. Together with the elevation and slope of topography, other attributes defmed from modeling the stream system, and drainage networks were used to associate geological, hydrological and topographical features to water flow in river systems and the spatial locations of artesian aquifers in the study area. Stream flow data derived from daily flow measurements recorded at river gauging stations for multi-year period were decomposed into “drainage-area dependent“ and “drainage-area independent“ flow components by two-step “frequency“ and “spatial“ analysis processes. The latter component was further demonstrated to relate most likely to the ground water discharge. An independent analysis was conducted to model the distribution of aquifers with information derived from the records of water wells. The focus was given on quantification of the likelihood of ground water discharge to river and ponds through flowing wells, springs and seepages. It has been shown that the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) is a unique glacial deposit that serves as a recharge layer and that the aquifers in the ORM underlain by Hilton Tills and later deposits exposed near the steep slope zone of the ridges of ORM provide significant discharge to the surface water systems (river flow and ponds) through flowing wells, springs and seepages. Various statistics (cross- and auto-correlation coefficients, fractal R/S exponent) were used in conjunction with GIS to demonstrate the influence of land types, topography and geometry of drainage basins on short- and long-term persistence of river flows as well as responding time to precipitation events. The current study has provided not only insight in understanding the interaction of water systems in the GTA, but also a base for further establishment of an on-line GIS system for predicting spatial-temporal changes of river flow and groundwater level in the GTA.