古尔班通古特沙漠南缘梭梭茎干液流变化及其对环境因子的响应

利用TDP热扩散式茎流计,结合气象观测系统,对古尔班通古特沙漠南缘原生梭梭的树干液流及环境因子进行连续监测,分析了梭梭树干液流对环境要素的响应,基于潜在蒸散发和蒸腾需求指数对梭梭茎干液流进行了模拟。结果表明：（1）梭梭树干液流在晴天的日变化呈单峰曲线,液流速率上升阶段时间短于下降阶段时间,与气象因素的日变化规律不一致。不同季节梭梭树干液流速率日变化规律存在差异,夏季液流与春季、秋季相比,启动早,停止晚,峰值更大且发生更早。（2）环境要素间存在着不同程度的相关性,主成分分析表明：前三个主成分共能解释85%的环境信息,其中以空气湿度、空气温度、水汽压亏缺、潜在蒸散发、净辐射为主的第一主成分能解释47%环境信息变化,以土壤温度、水汽压为主的第二主成分能解释20%环境信息变化,以土壤含水量、风速为主的第三主成分能解释17.6%的环境信息变化。（3）在春季和夏季基于潜在蒸散发的S型模型模拟梭梭液流速率的精度更高,在秋季基于蒸腾需求指数模拟的梭梭液流速率的精度更高。（4）梭梭树干液流速率与大气水分亏缺、净辐射、潜在蒸散发之间存在非对称响应,且不同季节间的响应规律存在差异,在春季和秋季,液流速率与水汽压亏缺呈顺时针状,与净辐射、潜在蒸散发呈逆时针状;在夏季,液流速率与水汽压亏缺呈顺时针状,与净辐射、潜在蒸散发呈斜8字顺时针状。     

DISASTER ANALYSIS AND COUNTERMEASURES OF LAND SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY COAL CUTTING IN CHINA

In recent years, many coal-producing countries have paid great attention to the land subsidence causedby coal cutting. In China, because of the dense population in coalfield areas, the land subsidence hazard is more seri-ous. After a brief analysis on the mechanism of land subsidence, this paper gives a comprehensive and systematical ac-count on all kinds of hazards caused by the land subsidence in China. The study shows that land subsidence has endan-gered land, buildings, traffic and communication lines, dykes and dams. It also causes damage to ecological and socialenvironment. In order to lessen the hazard of land subsidence, preventive measures should be taken to reduce the col-lapse amount, such as extraction with stowing, banded mining system, succession and coordination mining system, orhigh-pressure mudflow between rock strata. Measures of reinforcing or moving certain buildings should also be taken toreduce the destructive degree. In order to harness the subsidence land and bring them under control for fanning, mea-sures should be taken such as filling with spoil or fine breeze, excavating the deeper and covering the shallower land.     

加权方差分析及其在地壳垂直运动中的应用

经典最小二乘准则下的方差分析要求观测值的正态随机误差之间是相互独立的，而实际遇到的测量数据经常并不满足这一条件。为了从广泛意义上更科学地研究和应用方差分析这一理论，提出了加权方差理论，导出和论证了相应的公式，并以实例讨论了它在地壳垂直运动分析中的应用。     

GIS技术在矿业权价款评估中的应用研究

地理信息系统(GIS)在国土及矿政管理中进行了广泛的应用,取得了很好的效果。本文研究利用GIS空间分析功能在矿业权范围内分析涉及国家出资地质勘查项目情况,统计矿业权范围内占国家出资地质勘查面积,依据相关的法律和法规进行价款计算,为矿业权登记、转让等环节中价款评估提供科学依据。     

Mineral occurrence for Dachang gold deposit and its impact on gold recovery rate in Qumarleb County,Qinghai

Based on X-ray diffraction, optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy analysis of the Dachang gold ore, it is showed that the sulfide of ore is the main carrier minerals of gold. A majority of gold is embedded in pyrite and tetrahedrite as the form of inclusion and a small amount intergrowth with pyrite and gangue mineral, occasionally the presence is in form of monomer natural gold. The main factors which influence the recovery rate are sulfide mineral particle size, and the fine grained sulfide is beneficial for the dissociation and flotation of gold bearing minerals. The monomer dissociation degree of gold bearing minerals can reach 91.3% , when the grinding fineness is less than 0. 074 mm and grain level accounts as 80%. It is not conducive to the flotation of sulfide if the grinding fineness is low or high. It is difficult to completely dissociate the monomer if there is a small amount of pyrite and arsenopyrite in the ore. Therefore, before leaching the gold, it must conduct pretreatment to reach the ideal recovery rate of the gold, like roasting oxidation, pressure oxidation and biological oxidation. The fine microscopic gold has little influence on the gold recovery rate.     

基于EEMD-SARIMA的对流层延迟预测模型研究

在无气象数据的条件下,提出一种基于集合经验模态分解（EEMD）和季节性自回归移动平均模型（SARIMA）的对流层延迟（ZTD）预报新方法,并分别选取长春、上海、乌鲁木齐3个地区4个季节的ZTD数据进行预测分析。结果表明,基于EEMD-SARIMA的ZTD改正预报模型能够满足不同地区、不同季节下的ZTD估计需求,是一种高精度的ZTD预报方法。     

雅砻江流域主汛期降水长期预报的一种方法

本文使用天气学方法，从影响雅砻江区域主汛期降水量的长期预报有关因子出发，再运用数理统计方法反复筛选，仅取３个主要因子：西部青藏高原８个站冬春积温，北部冬季极涡面积指数，南部冬季印缅槽平均强度，建立逐步回归预报方程。结果显示：对主汛期６～９月降水量预报拟合准确率为１６／１７即约９４％。回归分析中发现：尽管西太平洋副热带高压对盆地西部降水有很大影响，盛夏且与高原积温有较密切相关，但由放大范围长时段的青藏高原积温，对于雅砻江区域主汛期降水量的影响超过西太平洋副热高压，因而在逐步回归过程中，副高因子仍被剔除．     

南方亚热带季风区将乐县森林植被动态变化及其对气候变化的响应

在全球气候变化背景下,植被动态变化以及植被对气候变化的响应方式已经成为生态学和地理学领域的热点。本文对比分析了南方亚热带季风区将乐县不同类型森林植被对不同时间尺度的干旱响应的差别。基于2000-2017年MODIS-EVI数据及气象站点数据,用最大值合成法、趋势分析法以及相关分析法,分析了森林植被及气象因子的动态变化特征,并对比不同森林植被对气候变化响应的差别。研究表明：① 2000-2017年,研究区植被覆盖度、EVI和降水均显著增加,区域内湿度增加,森林长势渐趋良好;② EVI在生长季初期和末期与同期的降水、温度均显著正相关（P<0.1）,初期森林受降水因子的影响更大,末期受温度因子的影响大;③ 1-3月和周年的气候变化对森林的生长至关重要,长时间尺度的湿度增加对森林生长具有显著的促进作用,SPEI的时间尺度越长与EVI的相关性也越大;④ 针阔混交林与同期温度、降水的相关系数最高,并且与不同时间尺度的SPEI相关性均比较高,属于气候敏感型林型,在生产经营中要谨慎预防气候变化对该林型带来的伤害;⑤ 森林覆盖度变化与降水和SPEI_24的相关性极显著,长时间尺度的降水变化是影响森林植被覆盖率变化的重要因素之一。     

Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

"4D"数据在生态环境监测与评价中的应用

本文在阐述由DLG、DRG、DEM和DOM组成的4D产品的信息特征的基础上,深入分析了"4D"数据在生态环境监测与评价中的功能,包括生态环境的快速动态监测、三维生态景观的直观分析和表达、DLM与DCM相结合的生态模拟、多时空尺度的生态环境分析与评价等.并以云南省生态环境监测与评价为例,研究了其在生态环境监测与评价中的技术流程,并通过案例分析,生成了系列生态环境地图.