Using Statistical Downscaling to Quantify the GCM-Related Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Scenarios： A Case Study of Swedish Precipitation

There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP2） are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.     

Orthorectification of IKONOS and impact of different resolution DEM

IKONOS image has been wildly used in city planning, precision agriculture and emergence response. However, the accuracy of IKONOS Geo product is limited due to distortion caused by terrain relief. Orthorectification was performed to remove the distortion and the impact of different DEM on orthorectification were evaluated. 38 ground control points （GCPs） and 25 independent check points （ICPs） were collected. DEMs were generated from 1 ： 10 000 and 1 ： 50 000 topographic maps. Results show that RMS error at the check points is 1. 554 0 m using DEM generated from 1 ： 10 000 topographic map, which can meet the accuracy requirement of IKONOS Precision product （1.9 m RMSE）. While RMS error is 2. 572 4 m using DEM generated from 1 ： 50 000 topographic map.     

Middle-high latitude N2O distributions related to the Arctic vortex breakup

The relationship of N2O distributions with the Arctic vortex breakup is first analyzed with a probability distribution function （PDF） analysis. The N2O concentration shows different distributions between the early and late vortex breakup years. In the early breakup years, the N2O concentration shows low values and large dispersions after the vortex breakup, which is related to the inhomogeneity in the vertical advection in the middle and high latitude lower stratosphere. The horizontal diffusion coefficient （Kyy） shows a larger value accordingly. In the late breakup years, the N2O concentration shows high values and more uniform distributions than in the early years after the vortex breakup, with a smaller vertical advection and Kyy after the vortex breakup. It is found that the N2O distributions are largely affected by the Arctic vortex breakup time but the dynamically defined vortex breakup time is not the only factor.     

Implementation of the semi-Lagrangian advection scheme on a quasi-uniform overset grid on a sphere

The semi-Lagrangian advection scheme is implemented on a new quasi-uniform overset （Yin-Yang） grid on the sphere. The Yin-Yang grid is a newly developed grid system in spherical geometry with two perpendicularly-oriented latitude-longitude grid components （called Yin and Yang respectively） that overlapp each other, and this effectively avoids the coordinate singularity and the grid convergence near the poles. In this overset grid, the way of transferring data between the Yin and Yang components is the key to maintaining the accuracy and robustness in numerical solutions. A numerical interpolation for boundary data exchange, which maintains the accuracy of the original advection scheme and is computationally efficient, is given in this paper. A standard test of the solid-body advection proposed by Williamson is carried out on the Yin-Yang grid. Numerical results show that the quasi-uniform Yin-Yang grid can get around the problems near the poles, and the numerical accuracy in the original semi-Lagrangian scheme is effectively maintained in the Yin-Yang grid.     

基于地震属性的煤层厚度预测模型及其应用

地震属性技术在岩性和构造解释等方面得到了越来越广泛的应用,特别是在煤、油气资源勘探中具有重要的作用.基于淮南矿区谢桥1区13 1煤层地震勘探资料,提取了28种地震属性数据;通过地震属性的分析,优选出平均峰值振幅、振幅的峰态、最大绝对振幅、瞬时频率斜率等4种地震属性作为煤层厚度预测模型基本参数,结合已知钻孔资料,利用多元多项式回归以及BP人工神经网络方法,求出了各属性与煤厚之间的多元多项式回归模型及人工神经网络模型,并对模型进行了误差分析和应用结果对比分析,反映出人工神经网络模型在煤厚预测中具有好的应用效果.     

关于暴时电离层电流分布的南北半球不对称性

采用国际上广泛认可的高层大气和电离层经验模式提供的各种参数, 通过电离层电流连续方程, 计算出强磁暴条件下6月至日和12月至日内, 磁纬±72°和磁地方时00:00～24:00之间电离层电场、电流等的分布. 计算中考虑了地磁和地理坐标间的偏离; 除中性风场感生的发电机效应外, 还包含了磁层耦合(极盖区边界的晨昏电场和二区场向电流)的驱动外源. 结果表明, 6月至日时, 磁层扰动自极光区向中低纬的穿透情况在南、北半球内基本接近, 北半球内略强; 但12月至日时, 呈现明显的不对称性, 南半球的电流穿透远强于北半球, 而电场的穿透则是在北半球更强. 无论南北半球, 在中高纬地区, 午夜至黎明时段出现较强的东向电场分量, 其[WTHX]E×B[WTBZ]的向上漂移效应, 正是解释我们以往不少研究现象中所期盼的物理机制.     

求解地震静校正问题的双尺度反演方法

通过对地震静校正问题的分析,综合线性反演方法的计算速度快和非线性反演方法寻找全局最优解能力强的优点,提出了求解地震静校正问题的双尺度反演方法.在大尺度下采用非线性反演方法为小尺度下的线性反演计算初始模型,利用小尺度下的线性反演方法获得精细模型.对反演参数的选取进行了讨论,使双尺度反演算法具有自适应的特点.理论模型和实际资料的计算表明该方法计算结果精度高、计算速度快.     

直接消除电磁耦合的斩波去耦方法

应用激发极化法时经常遇到电磁耦合的干扰.基于耦合效应和激电效应在双频波测量波形上具有不同的表现形式,提出一种在野外采集激电数据时,直接剔除电磁耦合而又基本上不损失激电信息的“斩波”去耦方法.本文从“斩波去耦”的方法原理、斩波对正常双频波产生的畸变、以及存在EM和IP效应时的双频波斩波等方面进行了详细的推导和分析.数值计算结果表明,该方法去耦效果明显,可以在现场条件下直接去耦,值得在激发极化法中推广应用     

不同矿化度下泥质对岩石电性影响的逾渗网络研究

为了进一步认识泥质对岩石宏观电性的影响规律,本文利用非规整三维逾渗网络模型,通过数值模拟研究了不同矿化度下泥质对岩石电性影响的规律. 模拟结果表明：在中低矿化度下,泥质对岩石导电整体上呈现减阻作用,随着泥质含量的增加,电阻率降低的速度减慢;中等矿化度下泥质的减阻效果明显弱于低矿化度下的减阻效果;在高矿化度下泥质对岩石导电整体上呈现增阻作用. 在高矿化度、高含水饱和度下泥质对岩石电性的影响较小. 泥质起减阻、增阻作用的具体矿化度范围取决于储层的孔隙度、连通性以及地层温度等特性.     

关于井炮激发参数优化设计的思考

利用正演模拟的手段进行分析,对影响井炮激发的不同影响因素展开分析,结合对炸药特征阻抗与围岩的阻抗匹配系数、炸药几何耦合系数、激发药量、井深等方面进行分析,对井炮激发参数进行优化设计.通过优化设计,寻求有效提高地震子波品质的方法.结合实际的地震地质条件和地震勘探目标,设计最佳的井炮激发参数,提高地震勘探的效益.