CMIP5模式对西太平洋副热带高压的模拟和预估

利用国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）26个模式的模拟结果,从空间分布和振幅变化、年际周期及年代际趋势等方面,初步评估了CMIP5模式对西太平洋副热带高压（副高）的模拟能力。在此基础上,还对未来不同典型浓度路径（RCPs）情景下副高的可能变化给出了定性的预估。CMIP5模式历史试验结果显示,大多数模式对500 hPa位势高度气候平均值的模拟有明显误差,这主要是由于模式对热带印度洋和西太平洋地区海表温度（SST）的模拟普遍较观测值低,从而导致模式对副高的模拟能力有限。但大多数模式对高度场和纬向风场变化的空间形态与振幅都有较强的模拟能力。因此,通过用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料的气候平均值替代CMIP5模式气候平均值的简单方法,对CMIP5模拟结果进行了订正。经订正后的模式结果均有能力刻画副高指数的历史时间序列,且能够反映出20世纪70年代末期之后,副高面积增大、强度增强和显著西伸的变化趋势。此外,通过对副高指数的长期趋势、年际周期及标准差等的定量评估,注意到CNRM-CM5、FGOALS-g2、FIO-ESM、MIROC-ESM和MPI-ESM-P这5个模式对副高的模拟能力较强。未来气候预估试验中,副高面积和强度均增大,且显著西伸;其线性增长趋势在RCP8.5情景下最高,RCP4.5情景下次之,RCP2.6情景下最弱。有趣的是副高脊线指数在3种排放情景下都没有明显的长期变化趋势。这些结果为选取和利用CMIP5模式进行东亚地区气候变化的归因分析和未来预估提供了一定的科学依据。     

Effects of doubled carbon dioxide on rainfall responses to large-scale forcing: A two-dimensional cloud-resolving modeling study

ABSTRACT Rainfall responses to doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration were investigated through the analysis of two pairs of two-dimensional cloud-resolving model sensitivity experiments. One pair of experiments simulated pre-summer heavy rainfall over southern China around the summer solstice, whereas the other pair of experiments simulated tropical rainfall around the winter solstice. The analysis of the time and model domain mean heat budget revealed that the enhanced local atmospheric warming was associated with doubled carbon dioxide through the weakened infrared radiative cooling during the summer solstice. The weakened mean pre-summer rainfall corresponded to the weakened mean infrared radiative cooling. Doubled carbon dioxide increased the mean tropical atmospheric warming via the enhanced mean latent heat in correspondence with the strengthened mean infrared radiative cooling during the winter solstice. The enhanced mean tropical rainfall was associated with the increased mean latent heat.     

Projections of Global Mean Surface Temperature Under Future Emissions Scenarios Using a New Predictive Technique

Using numerical model simulations, global surface temperature is projected to increase by l~C to 4~C during the 21 st century, primarily as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. In the present study, a predictive technique incorporating driving forces into an observation time series was used to project the global mean surface temperature under four representative sce- narios of future emissions over the 21st century.     

Surface Trace Gases at a Rural Site between the Megacities of Beijing and Tianjin

The North China Plain （NCP） has recently faced serious air quality problems as a result of enhanced gas pollutant emissions due to the process of urbanization and rapid economic growth. To explore regional air pollu- tion in the NCP, measurements of surface ozone （O3）, nitrogen oxides （NOx）, and sulfur dioxide （SO2） were car- ried out from May to November 2013 at a rural site （Xianghe） between the twin megacities of Beijing and Tianjin. The highest hourly ozone average was close to 240 ppbv in May, followed by around 160 ppbv in June and July. High ozone episodes were more notable than in 2005 and were mainly associated with air parcels from the city cluster in the hinterland of the polluted NCP to the southwest of the site. For NOx, an important ozone precur- sor, the concentrations ranged from several ppbv to nearly 180 ppbv in the summer and over 400 ppbv in the fall. The occurrence of high NOx concentrations under calm condi- tions indicated that local emissions were dominant in Xianghe. The double-peak diurnal pattern found in NOx concentrations and NO/NOx ratios was probably shaped by local emissions, photochemical removal, and dilution re- sulting from diurnal variations of surface wind speed and the boundary layer height. A pronounced SO2 daytime peak was noted and attributed to downward mixing from an SO2-rich layer above, while the SO2-polluted air mass transported from possible emission sources, which differed between the non-heating （September and October） and heating （November） periods, was thought to be responsible for night-time high concentrations.     

Seasonal Changes in Phytoplankton Biomass and Dominant Species in the Changjiang River Estuary and Adjacent Seas：General Trends Based on Field Survey Data 1959-2009

The characteristics of seasonal variation in phytoplankton biomass and dominant species in the Changjiang River Estuary and adjacent seas were discussed based on field investigation data from 1959 to 2009. The field data from 1981 to 2004 showed that the Chlorophyll-a concentration in surface seawater was between 0.4 and 8.5 ktg dm-3. The seasonal changes generally presented a bimodal trend, with the biomass peaks occurring in May and August, and Chlorophyll-a concentration was the lowest in winter. Seasonal biomass changes were mainly controlled by temperature and nutrient levels. From the end of autumn to the next early spring, phytoplankton biomass was mainly influenced by temperature, and in other seasons, nutrient level （including the nutrient supply from the terrestrial runoffs） was the major influence factor. Field investigation data from 1959 to 2009 demonstrated that dia- toms were the main phytoplankton in this area, and Skeletonerna costatum, Pseudo-nitzschia pungens, Coscinodiscus oculus-iridis, Thalassinoema nitzschioides, Paralia sulcata, Chaetoceros lorenzianus, Chaetoceros curvisetus, and Prorocentrum donghaiense Lu were common dominant species. The seasonal variations in major dominant phytoplankton species presented the following trends： 1） Skeletonema （mainly S. costatum） was dominant throughout the year; and 2） seasonal succession trends were Coscinodiscus （spring） →Chaetoceros （summer and autumn） → Coscinodiscus （winter）. The annual dominance of S. costatum was attributed to its environmental eurytopicity and long standing time in surface waters. The seasonal succession of Coscinodiscus and Chaetoceros was associated with the seasonal variation in water stability and nutrient level in this area. On the other hand, long-term field data also indicated obvious interannual variation of phytoplankton biomass and community structure in the Changjiang River Estuary and adjacent seas： average annual phytoplankton biomass and dinoflagellate proportion both presented inc     

Laboratory application of laser grain-size analyzer in determining suspended sediment concentration

Suspended sediment concentration （SSC） is an important parameter in marine sedimentology. With the development of technology, many acoustic and optical devices, such as the Laser In-Situ Scattering and Transmissometry, have been designed to meas-ure in situ SSC and grain size distribution. But due to fund or other restrictions, many experiments were only conducted in laboratory, using an indoor laser grain-size analyzer and gravimetric method to measure grain size distribution and concentration, respectively. In this study the laboratory experiment is simplified by omitting the tiring step of gravimetric method. The connections between SSC and other parameters （obscuration, D50 and sorting index） were investigated based on 124 surface sediment samples collected from different offshore areas. A new method is developed for determining SSC in laboratory using a laser grain-size analyzer.     

TEC浓度误差变化分析

电离层是大气层中的重要组成部分,但也是GPS测量误差中重要的影响因素,本文通过对电离层浓度分布研究,分析得出电离层的季节变化和在不同区域的变化趋势。     

冲绳海槽沉积物孔隙水地球化学特征及其指示意义

通过对东海外陆坡–冲绳海槽GSW1孔沉积物孔隙水δ₁₃C、δ₁₈O、δ₁₁B、δ₃₇Cl同位素和Cl_-、S O₄^2-、K₊、Na₊等离子指标的分析,探讨了沉积物早期成岩作用、流体来源、迁移和氧化环境的变化。研究发现,GSW1孔孔隙水溶解无机碳主要来自海水和有机质,SO₄^2-浓度随深度下降比较平缓,Cl_-浓度远低于海水,该孔表层沉积物中硫酸盐消耗主要由有机质硫酸盐还原作用（OSR）所控制,甲烷厌氧氧化作用（AOM）发生在4 m以下更深的层位。OSR产生的H₂S向上扩散富集并被氧化,是导致GSW1孔110～360 cm处SO ₄^2-浓度未明显下降的主要因素。孔隙水SO₄^2-浓度整体随着深度增加呈减小的趋势,表明GSW1孔沉...     

水体悬沙浓度连续测量技术研究综述

水体悬沙浓度是水利、环境、河口海岸与海洋相关研究领域最为基础的数据需求之一。随着传感器技术的发展, 悬沙浓度连续测量技术在悬沙浓度测量领域表现出高时空分辨率、长期数据采集的成本和风险均较低的突出优点。本文综述了光学、声学、音叉谐振、压差和放射性射线衰减等原理用于悬沙浓度连续测量技术的相关研究进展, 探讨了各技术方法的优、缺点, 并提出了今后的研发重点和发展方向主要在以下几个方面: 1) 光后向散射原理是低成本、小型化和高时频测量悬沙浓度的最优技术路线, 需着力于开展量程扩增和粒径敏感度削弱研究; 2) 低不确定度悬沙浓度垂向剖面观测的实现依赖于超声后向散射原理技术路线的发展; 3) 音叉谐振原理技术路线尤为契合高含沙水流和浮泥工况下的超高量程应用场景; 4) 多技术路线传感器融合以及使用人工智能算法模型替代正向反演模型。