玉林地区秋旱气候特征分析及防御对策

利用玉林地区５个测站１９５８～１９９６年降雨量资料,统计分析了玉林地区秋旱天气的气候规律,并在此基础上,提出秋旱的防御对策,为做好秋旱预报、减少秋旱灾害给农业生产造成的损失提供可靠的依据。     

南宁市引种金花茶的气候分析与评价

依据原种金花茶的生态特性及引种试验结果,通过分析南宁市的气候条件得出,南宁市适宜种植金花茶的结论     

广西1997年气候影响评价

１９９７年度（１９９６年１２月至１９９７年１１月）,广西各地年平均气温１６．６～２３．３℃,属正常;年降水量１２５９．５～２８２５．３ｍｍ,正常到偏多２～５成;年日照时数８５２．８～２１３９．３ｈ,大部地区比常年偏少２００～５００ｈ。１９９７年度,广西主要气候事件及其影响以洪涝和寒露风最为突出,其次是大风和冬旱;日照不足,降水偏多,洪涝及寒露风灾害严重,全年气候条件对工农业生产的影响弊多利少,属偏差年景。     

气候突变的聚类分析

气候数据是时间序列,是一类有序样品．本文给出了一种新的有序样品谱系聚类算法,先对数据进行平滑拟合,然后用聚类分析的方法分析了北半球的气候资料,证实了1920年为气候突变点．同时也找到了较低的各个层次上的突变点．     

风暴潮灾害情景下海岸带暴露指数时空演变研究——以福建省东山湾为例

暴露指数反映了环境在面对极端天气事件时承受灾害的潜在风险程度。研究利用遥感影像数据、数字高程数据(DEM)、海洋水深及风力数据等, 基于暴露指数模型, 以福建省东山湾为案例研究区域, 对风暴潮灾害情景下的海岸带暴露指数及其时空演变进行分析。研究结果显示: (1)近十年来, 东山湾海岸带暴露指数总体呈下降趋势, 潜在风险程度为“中”及以上区域占比由67.14%下降至59.06%, 海岸带在面对风暴潮灾害等极端天气事件时潜在的风险程度总体降低, 海湾地貌类型差异及其形态变化是影响东山湾暴露指数产生波动的主要原因; (2)基于暴露指数评价结果, 结合海岸带开发利用现状, 研究可对东山湾海岸带生态环境的敏感区域进行识别, 并制定具有针对性的开发利用与风险防范对策, 为海岸带空间规划、生态保护修复格局的科学划定提供理论支撑, 在助力海岸带陆海统筹和可持续发展上具有重要意义; (3)研究提出的一种基于时间序列的暴露指数研究技术路线和框架, 可为海岸带脆弱性评估、海岸带韧性评估、海岸带灾害监测预警等相关研究提供新的研究视角, 在基于深度学习的海岸带灾害风险预警与灾害模拟等方面也具有较为广阔的应用前景。     

土地整理项目工程风险防范策略分析

土地整理是一项复杂的系统工程，涉及的行业和部门很多，其潜在风险较大。目前，很多土地整理项目都未达到预期目标，有的项目甚至产生了较多负面影响。要解决目前土地整理项目存在的现实问题，必须从土地整理项目的全局出发，对土地整理项目进行风险分析。通过对在土地整理项目建设过程中存在工程组织、工作程序、工程技术、工程质量、工作环境、生态环境及权属调整等方面的风险进行分析研究。同时提出了10条工程风险防范的有效措施，促进土地整理项目更好的实施。     

The meteorologically abnormal year of 2006 and natural disasters in the Philippines

In the early part of 2006 the Philippines was hit by a La Nina event which brought floods, flashfloods and landslides. The most significant event was the February 2006 landslide that covered the whole community of Guinsaugon, in Southern Leyte, resulting in 154 deaths with 973 people still missing. Another rare event was the simultaneous presence of two tropical cyclones inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility （PAR） in August-- Tropical Depression Bopha and Tropical Storm Saomai--that enhanced the southwest monsoon. With the strong winds and high waves associated with the southwest mon- soon, an oil tanker, the M/T Solar 1, sank, resulting in the worst oil spill the country has ever suffered. Lastly, with a weak El Nino phenomenon forming in the Pacific Ocean and affecting the Philippines, a destructive typhoon, Xangsane, made a multi-landfall before hitting Metropolitan Manila. This was followed by the landfall of three superty- phoons--Cimaron, Chebi and Durian--during the last quarter of the year, bringing tremendous destruction of life and property. The occurrence of these weather events are attributed to climate variability the effects of which were exacerbated by a range of factors that include inappropriate land use.     

一群冰山的热海之旅

全球的气候真的是在变暖么?这似乎越来越像一个谜团。这个真假难辨的世界太难以捉摸了,我们眼睛所见的一切,都不一定就是真实,到底去相信谁?要不实在不行的话,不如干脆等到开春儿的时候,直接到公园或者是郊外去观察一下嫩叶舒展和花朵绽放,并且记录下来去年迁徙而去的鸟儿今年返回的时间,如果有可能的话,再将这些结果与历史数据进行一下比较。这样一来,就不难发现春天来得究竟是比往昔早还是晚。     

CHARACTERISTICS OF ZONAL ANOMALY OF ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHEASTERN CHINA

The characteristics of zonal anomaly and change rule of temporal distribution of annual precipitation in the northeastern China are revealed in this paper with EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) and REOF (Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function) methods and results are drawn in the standard relief maps with GIS technology for practical application. Data used in the study were obtained from 208 meteorological stations over the northeastern China from 1961 to 2001. EOF results show that the first 3 loading vectors could give entire spatial anomaly structure of annual precipitation. In the Northeast Plain including the Songneng Plain and the Liaohe Plain, there is a regional compatibility (whether wet or dry) of annual precipitation change and this precipitation pattern has occurred since the late 1980s to the present. There also exist annual precipitation patterns of wet (or dry) in south and dry (or wet) in north and wet (or dry) in east and dry (or wet) in west. REOF results display 8 principal precipitation anomaly areas by the first 8 rotated loading vectors: the west plain, the Liaodong hills, the Sanjiang Plain, the Liaoxi hills,the Changbai Mountains, the Hulun Buir Plateau, the southwest plateau and the Liaodong Peninsula.