极盖区等离子体云块近十年研究进展

极盖区等离子体云块是一种经常出现在极区电离层F层的高密度块状结构,其电子密度一般是背景电子密度的两倍及以上,水平尺度约为100～1 000 km.极盖区等离子体云块的产生及演化过程可以示踪磁层-电离层/热层耦合过程中的能量及动量传输过程.同时,这种电子密度不均匀体（尤其是其边沿区域）对跨极盖区的无线电波传播具有很强的干扰,经常影响无线电通讯导航定位等应用.因而,极盖区等离子体云块研究不仅是空间物理领域的热点问题,而且也是空间天气监测及准确预报等应用的重要基础.本文简述了近十年来极盖区等离子体云块的研究进展,主要内容包括：概括了极盖区等离子体云块几种可能的形成机制;提出了极盖区冷/热等离子体云块的分类研究;统计了极盖区等离子体云块的时空分布特征及其对外部条件的依赖性;追踪了极盖区等离子体云块的完整演化过程;最后,讨论了极盖区等离子体云块引起的离子上行现象及电离层闪烁效应.     

低速十字路口交通流模型相图

研究由两个单车道构成低速十字路口交通流模型.模型中两车道上的车辆更新遵循无交通灯管制下的并行规则.依据构建相图的原则并采用局部占有概率方法,建立相图,给出相图中的各部分区域的流量表达式.两车道均采用周期边界条件和确定性FI模型进行数值模拟,模拟结果与理论分析精确一致.模型中两条车道的行车规则更接近实际道路交通,该结果为交通管理提供一定的指导作用.     

换道概率对交通系统动能的影响

基于跟车模型的特点,提出了跟车模型的动能变化公式,利用该公式研究换道概率对各车辆动能的影响.数值实验结果表明,换道概率和相对速度对各车辆动能产生较大影响,但换道概率和相对速度会分别降低其动能变化频率和幅度.此外,系统增加的平均动能会随着系统最大换道概率的增加而降低.     

Probability of Sediment Incipient Motion Under Complex Flows

Presented in this paper is a mathematical model to calculate the probability of the sediment incipient motion,in which the effects of the fluctuating pressure and the seepage are considered.The instantaneous bed shear velocity and the pressure gradient on the bed downstream of the backward-facing step flow are obtained according to the PIV measurements.It is found that the instantaneous pressure gradient on the bed obeys normal distribution.The probability of the sediment incipient motion on the bed downstream of the backward-facing step flow is given by the mathematical model.The predicted results agree well with the experiment in the region downstream of the reattachment point while a large discrepancy between the theory and experiment is seen in the region near the reattachment point.The possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.     

Probabilistic Approach of Coastal Defense Against Typhoon Attacks for Nuclear Power Plant

With the global wanning and sea level rising, it is widely recognized that there is an increasing tendency of typhoon occurrence frequency and intensity. The defenses code against typhoon attacks for nuclear power plant should be calibrated because of the increasing threat of typhoon disaster and severe consequences. This paper discusses the probabilistic approach of definitions about "probable maximum typhoon" and "probable maximum storm surge" in nuclear safety regulations of China and has made some design code calibrations by use of a newly proposed Double Layer Nested Multi-objective Probability Model (DLNMPM).     

台风影响期间的河道水位设防标准研究

针对台风影响期间的河道设防标准提出1种新的计算方法(三维复合极值分布模型),同时比较规范推荐的Pearson-Ⅲ方法以及其它几种适线方法的计算结果,在三维概率预测模型和单因素概率模型的比较过程中,阐述了三维复合极值分布模型在样本选取、多重致灾因素的选取、计算结果稳定性等多方面的先进性和合理性。     

应用线性合成概率方法探讨青藏高原北部地区强震趋势

基于周期谱分析基础上的线性合成概率预测方法,对青藏高原北部地区Ms≥7.0、Ms≥6.5强震进行了试验性研究,并利用其结果作为预测依据,对青藏高原北部地区强震趋势做了初步估计.利用该方法,本文还对东昆仑断裂带1900年以来的Ms≥7.0强震进行了研究.     

Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.     

基于性能的地震工程研究的新进展及对结构非线性分析的要求

结合国际地震工程界提出的新一代基于性能的地震工程的框架方法,重点阐述了性能评估中涉及的主要问题。对性能评估使用的静力非线性分析、动力非线性分析方法进行了总结,在此基础上详细阐述了在基于概率的性能评估中有应用前景的增量动力分析方法的概念、相关问题及其应用,并简要介绍了基于增量动力分析思想提出的一些简化方法。最后提出了今后研究的建议,特别是结构非线性分析方面的研究重点。     

矿产地质勘查项目研判ABC

矿产地质勘查是高投入、高风险、高回报的投资活动,如何引进经济、优质的矿权是矿产地质勘查的先决条件和企业赖以发展的基础.对项目高效、快速、准确的研判是项目研发最重要的一步.文章把矿权分为3种矿权来源和4种项目类型.通过3种矿权来源点评和4种项目类型的剖析,探讨了项目研判的内容、研判的准则、研判的工作程序,把研判过程分为初判、普判、详判3个阶段.在此基础上研究了研判各阶段时间安排与具体工作内容,普判阶段编图方法、取样间距和取样方法,普判阶段工作量及费用概略估计,以及详判阶段的几个关键问题.