山西地区ML≥3.0地震震源机制解研究

选取2007年至2010年ML≥3.0的49个地震,重点研究该时间段内山西发生的5次ML4.0以上的地震,通过snoke方法的计算结果,与仅用振幅比方法所得的结果进行对比分析,结果表明,snoke方法是可行的。     

利用三维地震资料研究夹河煤矿煤层厚度

夹河煤矿位于徐州市西北部,设计生产能力为140万t/a,新构造活动不强,构造稳定性较好。通过对矿区地震特征、煤储层特征分析,认为区内煤层稳定且储量大,该文以夹河煤矿为例,利用常规解释方法和地震属性参数技术解释了2煤层的煤层厚度,分析了地震属性剖面及煤层厚度图的成图方法,从而找出煤层厚度的变化规律,取得了较好的地质效果,为矿井采掘提供高精度地震勘探资料。     

南海东北部C型内孤立波的观测与分析

基于布放在南海东北部陆坡海域的5套潜标观测到的内孤立波波列数据和孤立波扰动KdV(PKdV)理论,研究内孤立波在趋浅陆架上的传播特征。得出如下结果:1)观测到的内孤立波属于C型内孤立波,即平均重现周期为(23.41±0.31)h。2)内孤立波在西传爬坡过程中,其振幅表现为先增大后减小再增大,与该海域温跃层深度的变化趋势一致;由观测数据和理论计算得到的孤立波振幅增长率(SAGR)数值接近,表明该海域的内孤立波的振幅变化可以采用由孤立波PKdV方程导出的趋浅温跃层理论来描述。3)随着水深变浅,内孤立波传播方向向北偏移,传播速度减小,即在A,B和D站位,传播方向分别为279°,296°和301°,偏转角度达22°;传播速度分别为2.36,2.23和1.47 m/s,减小38%。     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Theoretical Analysis of A Buoyant Jet Interacting with Small Amplitude Waves

A new theoretical solution is presented here for the dynamic characteristics of a buoyant jet due to opposing small amplitude waves.The conservation equations of mass,tangential momentum and vertical momentum are solved by the integral method which encompasses the Gaussian profiles of velocity and density.The action of waves is incorporated into the equations of motion as an external force and a new exact solution is obtained to predict the trajectory,velocity distribution and boundary thickness of the buoyant jet over an arbitrary lateral cross section.It is found that the velocity along the centerline is inversely proportional to the ratio of the momentum of the wave to the buoyant jet.The averaged boundary width varies with the fluctuation of the boundary width,the distance from the orifice and the velocity correction function.Owing to the motion d waves,the fluctuation of the boundary width is proportional to the wave steepness.     

龙口港湾大振幅假潮的成因分析

龙口湾位于山东半岛北部,莱州湾东北隅,为莱州湾的一个附属海湾.海湾湾口朝向西南,湾廓近似半圆形,属半封闭海湾.龙口验潮站位于湾顶(图1),水深7m.     

近期长江大通至南京河段潮动力变化趋势与机制

近期长江感潮河段径、潮动力已然发生变化,但其变化机制与趋势有待进一步探讨。通过对长江大通至南京河段的野外调查,并分析了近40年来大通、芜湖和南京站水文资料,探讨了近期该河段的潮动力变化机制与趋势。结果表明:近年来长江大通至南京段潮动力有增强趋势。具体表现为相近径流量条件,潮差平均增大约10 cm,主要分潮振幅增加10%～30%,潮汐形态系数有减小趋势。引起上述变化的原因可能有:(1)近期感潮河段整体冲刷变深导致潮波上溯阻力减小;(2)口外潮汐动力增强以及海平面上升等使潮汐上溯能力增强。此外,长江流域修建了大量水库群,导致该河段径流量变化由自然因素主导变成自然与人为调控共同作用为主,从而影响了潮动力的相对强弱。     

2007年宁洱6.4级地震余震序列尾波QC值研究

基于Aki和Chouet的地方震尾波单次散射模型,利用思茅台记录到的2007年云南宁洱6.4地震余震的数字化波形观测资料,测量了震源区尾波Qc(f)值。当中心频率为1.5Hz时,宁洱地区的尾波Qc值在51～147之间,平均值为79,尾波的振幅衰减率βc(f)在0.014～0.039之间,平均值为0.028;测量得到该地区尾波Qc值与频率f的关系为Qc(f)=53f0.88;尾波波源因子与震级成正比关系,满足关系lgA0=1.51ML-0.94;测量结果显示宁洱地震余震序列的尾波值Qc较低,表明宁洱震源区属于构造运动较为活跃区。