海城7．3级地震前地震波动力学特征量的异常变化

本文给出对海城７．３级地震前地震波动力学特征量变化的一些最新研究结果。所研究的地震波包括体波（Ｐ，Ｓ波）、尾波和短周期地脉动三类。特征量有：体波与地脉动的波形时间线性度和空间线性度，平均半周期，频谱的峰值频率、拐角频率、相对频带宽度、相对频谱峰值、高频段的谱线斜率绝对值；尾波的时间熵、振幅比、持续时间、观测与计算持续时间差及其二阶差分、Ｑ＿ｃ值、反映介质混浊度与震源特性的系数ａ＿ｃ等。所得结果表明，三类地震波的上述动力学特征量大都在震前一至半年左右出现、有的在６－１０天乃至一天以内出现过不同形态的阶段性异常变化，因而可看作海城地震的中短期和临震的地震波前兆异常指标。     

不同劈草时间毛竹林生产力及土壤变化特征

2008-09在福建洋口国有林场,应用野外取样调查及实验室分析相结合的方法对未劈草(Ⅰ)、劈草10 a(Ⅱ)和劈草30 a(Ⅲ)的毛竹林生产力及土壤变化特征进行研究.结果表明:劈草可以显著提高毛竹林的生产力,但是随着劈草时间的延长毛竹林增产效果降低.三种林分生产力排列顺序为Ⅱ＞Ⅲ＞Ⅰ,分别为44 199.57±395.40、43 508.04±346.12和35 691.31±394.68 kg/(hm2*a).劈草时间不同,不同器官的生产力分配也不同,地下部分生产力所占比例的排列顺序为Ⅱ＞Ⅲ＞Ⅰ,分别为24.87%、24.72%和24.31%.劈草经营有降低毛竹林地上部分生产力,增加地下部分生产力的趋势.土壤综合性质随着劈草时间的延长呈降低趋势,三种林分平均得分的排列顺序为Ⅰ＞Ⅲ＞Ⅱ,分别为0.639 0、0.432 0和0.355 8.     

通勤时间、社区活动对社区社会资本的影响：基于北京26个社区的调查研究

城市扩张和郊区化显著增加居民的通勤时间,减少居民在社区内及周边开展的日常活动,进而可能对居民的社区社会资本产生消极影响。基于2017年北京市26个社区居民的社区融合与活动日志问卷调查数据,通过构建结构方程模型,探讨通勤时间、社区活动对社区社会资本的影响机制。结果发现,控制居民社会经济属性和社区区位后,长时间通勤会减少居民在社区及周边1 000 m范围内开展的活动,并进一步对社区社交网络结构、社会信任和共同价值等社区社会资本的不同维度产生负面影响。此外,社区活动中社交娱乐活动的中介效应显著,而个人和家庭事务活动中介效应不显著。最后,证实了促进职住平衡、减少职住分离的规划政策对于增加居民社区活动及培育社区社会资本的重要意义。     

基于随机集合的非传统型有效波极值模型

The analysis and design of offshore structures necessitates the consideration of wave loads. Realistic modeling of wave loads is particularly important to ensure reliable performance of these structures. Among the available methods for the modeling of the extreme significant wave height on a statistical basis, the peak over threshold method has attracted most attention. This method employs Poisson process to character- ize time-varying properties in the parameters of an extreme value distribution. In this paper, the peak over threshold method is reviewed and extended to account for subjectivity in the modeling. The freedom in selecting the threshold and the time span to separate extremes from the original time series data is incorpo- rated as imprecision in the model. This leads to an extension from random variables to random sets in the probabilistic model for the extreme significant wave height. The extended model is also applied to different periods of the sampled data to evaluate the significance of the climatic conditions on the uncertainties of the parameters.     

A review on statistical models for identifying climate contributions to crop yields

Statistical models using historical data on crop yields and weather to calibrate relatively simple regression equations have been widely and extensively applied in previous studies, and have provided a common alternative to process-based models, which require extensive input data on cultivar, management, and soil conditions. However, very few studies had been conducted to review systematically the previous statistical models for indentifying climate contributions to crop yields. This paper introduces three main statistical methods, i.e., time-series model, cross-section model and panel model, which have been used to identify such issues in the field of agrometeorology. Generally, research spatial scale could be categorized into two types using statistical models, including site scale and regional scale (e.g. global scale, national scale, provincial scale and county scale). Four issues exist in identifying response sensitivity of crop yields to climate change by statistical models. The issues include the extent of spatial and temporal scale, non-climatic trend removal, colinearity existing in climate variables and non-consideration of adaptations. Respective resolutions for the above four issues have been put forward in the section of perspective on the future of statistical models finally.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987110000113

<正>Against the current background of global climate change,the study of variations in the soil carbon pool and its controlling factors may aid in the evaluation of soil's role in the mitigation or enhancement of greenhouse gas.This paper studies spatial and temporal variation in the soil carbon pool and their controlling factors in the southern Song-nen Plain in Heilongjiang Province,using soil data collected over two distinct periods by the Multi-purpose Regional Geochemical Survey in 2005—2007, and another soil survey conducted in 1982—1990.The study area is a carbon source of 1479 t/km~2 and in the past 20 years,from the 1980s until 2005.the practical carbon emission from the soil was 0.12 Gt.Temperature,which has been found to be linearly correlated to soil organic carbon,is the dominant climatologic factor controlling soil organic carbon contents.Our study shows that in the relevant area and time period the potential loss of soil organic carbon caused by rising temperatures was 0.10 Gt,the potential soil carbon emission resulting from land-use change was 0.09 Gt,and the combined potential loss of soil carbon(0.19 Gt) caused by warming and land-use change is comparable to that of fossil fuel combustion(0.21 Gt).Due to the time delay in soil carbon pool variation,there is still 0.07 Gt in the potential emission caused by warming and land-use change that will be gradually released in the future.     

叠前时间偏移在华北地区的应用

从应用的角度较详细地论述了三维叠前克希霍夫时间偏移的过程。在给定合理的偏移孔径下,三维叠前克希霍夫时间偏移利用均方根速度对叠前地震数据进行逐道处理,从而得到准确的归位数据。叠前时间偏移相对叠后时间偏移而言,前者能够进一步提高地下信息的成像质量及归位准确性,信噪比和分辨率也得到了改善,能够满足精细的地震资料的解释。因此,三维叠前克希霍夫时间偏移对于速度变化平缓、地下构造较复杂的地区具有广泛的应用价值。     

生命历程视角下的广州市居民居住迁移的时空路径

转型与重构是现阶段中国城市发展的主旋律,在这一背景下,从个体生命历程的视角研究居住迁移的时空规律和影响因素有助于从深层次理解城市空间结构重构的内置机制,同时,对公共服务设施供给和提高居民生活质量等有一定的现实意义。以2007年进行的一次入户调查资料作为基础,研究了广州市居民居住迁移时空路径的生命历程特征。结果显示,广州市居民居住迁移的时空路径呈现出年龄偏好和空间偏好两个基本规律,这两个规律可以用“N”形曲线和“微笑曲线”来表达。“N”形曲线揭示了居住迁移率随年龄变化呈现出先上升后下降最后再上升的规律。微笑曲线则揭示了老人与孩子的居住迁移的方向较为集中而中年人的居住迁移方向较为离散的特点。文章据此从不同生命历程居民居住偏好的角度分析了产生上述居住迁移宏观规律的原因。从而证实了广州市居民居住迁移的时空路径具有若干生命历程的特征,对转型期广州市住房的供给与公共设施和服务的空间配置有着积极的意义。     

被动源海底地震仪数据预处理技术构建与应用

被动源海底地震仪(OBS)探测是海洋深部结构研究的重要方法之一.受投放区洋流、海底地形崎岖,以及海底温压环境等多种因素影响,OBS数据预处理面临时钟漂移,姿态及水平方位角偏差等问题.本文基于国产OBS硬件结构特点与其观测数据特性,针对仪器姿态校正、时间校正和水平方位角校正三个关键环节构建技术解决方案.通过硬件架构特征构建仪器姿态校正方案;结合仪器记录的石英晶振特点和背景噪声互相关方法提出时间校正技术;基于最小化P波切向分量能量和P波主成分分析两个技术方法进行水平方位角校正.上述预处理技术体系在苏拉威西海域被动源OBS数据预处理中取得了良好的应用效果,综合背景噪声水平与地震信号的时频分析结果,表明该预处理技术能有效提高被动源OBS观测数据质量,为进一步的科学研究奠定坚实基础.     

Time domain method for calculating free field motion of a layered half-space subjected to obliquely incident body waves

In numerical simulation of wave scattering under oblique incident body waves using the finite element method, the free field motion at the incident lateral boundary induced by the background layered half-space complicates the computational area. In order to replace the complex frequency domain method, a time-domain method to calculate the free field motion of a layered half-space subjected to oblique incident body waves is developed in this paper. The new method decouples the equations of motion used in the finite element method and offers an interpolation formula of the free field motion. This formula is based on the fact that the apparent horizontal velocity of the free field motion is constant and can be calculated exactly. Both the theoretical analysis and numerical results demonstrate that the proposed method offers a high degree of accuracy.