川中丘陵区人工桤柏混交林根呼吸对土壤总呼吸的贡献

采用挖壕沟法和根系生物量外推法对桤柏混交林地根呼吸在土壤总呼吸的贡献进行了为期1 a的对比研究。研究表明,两种方法测得的根呼吸平均速率分别为0.64μmol CO2/（m^2.s）和0.54μmol CO2/（m^2.s）,挖壕沟法高于根系生物量外推法的测定结果。两种方法计算的根呼吸占土壤呼吸的比例具有明显的季节变化,均表现为夏季（5～6月）较高而冬季（1～2月）较低,变化范围分别为13%～51%、11%～56%,平均分别为34%和31%;林木生长季节根呼吸比例均高于非生长季,两种方法测定的林木生长季根呼吸比例分别为41%和38%。方差分析表明两种方法测定根呼吸比例之间差异不显著（p〉0.05）。     

模拟三维裂纹问题的扩展有限元法

扩展有限元法是一种在常规有限元框架内求解强和弱不连续问题的新型数值方法,其计算网格与不连续面相互独立,因此模拟移动不连续面时无需对网格进行重新剖分。给出了模拟三维裂纹问题的扩展有限元法。在常规有限元位移模式中,基于单位分解的思想加进一个阶跃函数和二维渐近裂尖位移场,反映裂纹处位移的不连续性。用两个水平集函数表示裂纹。采用线性互补法求解裂纹面非线性接触条件,不需要迭代,提高了计算效率。采用两点位移外推法计算裂纹前缘应力强度因子。给出了3个三维弹性静力问题算例,其结果显示了所提方法能获得高精度的应力强度因子,并能有效地处理裂纹面间的接触问题,同时表明扩展有限元结合线性互补法求解不连续问题具有较好的前景。     

基于趋势外推法和BP神经网络的四平市汽车保有量预测

基于趋势外推法和BP神经网络模型对四平市2015年和2020年的汽车保有量进行预测.结果表明,结合趋势外推法对汽车保有量的影响因子进行单独预测,可以提高各影响因子的预测精度,弥补BP神经网络在影响因子预测中数据拟合度不高、外推性不强的缺陷,进而保证BP神经网络汽车保有量预测的准确度.利用BP神经网络良好的非线性映射能力,可以较好地拟合汽车保有量与影响因子之间的非线性映射关系,是一种可行的汽车保有量预测方法.但是神经网络预测模型与经典计算方法相比并非优越,只有当常规方法解决不了或效果不佳时ANN方法才能显示出其优越性.     

浅谈刚果（金）卢本巴希市UNILU地区水源地供水分析

在刚果（金）进行城市供水勘察时,往往由于经费和社会环境因素,不能按照国内传统的供水水文地质勘察进行工作。通过个别水文试验孔的三次稳定流抽水试验,用曲线外推的方法来获得相应开采深度的涌水量,是早期为业主提供指导性方案最为快速和相对准确的办法之一。以刚果（金）卢本巴希市UNILU水源地水文试验孔为例,简要进行供水分析。     

A Composite Approach of Radar Echo Extrapolation Based on TREC Vectors in Combination with Model-Predicted Winds

Extending the lead time of precipitation nowcasts is vital to improvementsin heavy rainfall warning, flood mitigation, and water resource management.Because the TREC vector (tracking radar echo by correlation) represents onlythe instantaneous trend of precipitation echo motion, the approach usingderived echo motion vectors to extrapolate radar reflectivity as a rainfallforecast is not satisfactory if the lead time is beyond 30 minutes. Forlonger lead times, the effect of ambient winds on echo movement should beconsidered. In this paper, an extrapolation algorithm that extends forecastlead times up to 3 hours was developed to blend TREC vectors withmodel-predicted winds. The TREC vectors were derived from radar reflectivitypatterns in 3 km height CAPPI (constant altitude plan position indicator)mosaics through a cross-correlation technique. The background steering windswere provided by predictions of the rapid update assimilation model CHAF(cycle of hourly assimilation and forecast). A similarity index was designedto determine the vertical level at which model winds were applied in theextrapolation process, which occurs via a comparison between model winds andradar vectors. Based on a summer rainfall case study, it is found that thenew algorithm provides a better forecast.     

方差分析叠加周期外推法在地震预测中的应用

首先介绍方差分析叠加周期外推法,并以郯庐地震带公元1400年以来40次MS5级以上地震为例说明方差分析叠加周期外推法的应用方法,应用该方法分析了不同区域、不同震级的地震序列。结果显示:郯庐断裂地震带、北京-渤海地震带、苏鲁皖交界地区、安徽地区的地震存在显著周期,从统计学的角度可以预测下一次地震的范围。而河北平原地震带、淮河地震带、华东地区的地震经度或纬度则不存在显著周期,无法外推下一次地震的范围。方差分析叠加周期外推法用于地震预测尚属于一种尝试。外推预测值与原始实测值虽然存在一定的误差,但方法的意义在于应用统计理论上把预测地点进行了定量化,缩小了监视范围。从某种意义上,还为研究地震机理,探索地震在时、空、强的演变规律上,提供研究方向。     

危岩应力强度因子的计算研究

危岩崩塌是山区主要地质灾害之一,其主控结构面的断裂失稳是导致危岩崩塌的根本原因。运用线弹性断裂力学的理论,引入应力集中系数法,建立了自重作用下的危岩应力强度因子的计算公式,可用于主控结构面与裂缝共线的危岩稳定性计算。同时还推导了基于ABAQUS 的J积分、位移外推法计算危岩应力强度因子的过程。通过实例表明,2种数值计算方法与解析结果十分接近,验证了ABAQUS计算危岩应力强度因子的合理性,最后模拟了危岩裂缝角度以及临空面宽度变化对危岩应力强度因子的影响。利用ABAQUS对危岩进行分析,并绘制应力强度因子在各因素影响下的趋势图,可以推测危岩失稳的临界条件。     

Inference of reference conditions for nutrient concentrations of Chaohu Lake based on model extrapolation

In the mid-eastern China,there are few or no lakes which are in the absence of anthropogenic disturbances,or their sediments remain undisturbed.As a result,the reference lakes distribution and paleolimnological reconstruction approaches usually are inappropriate to estimate lake reference conditions for nutrients.This yields the necessity of using the extrapolation methods to estimate the lake reference conditions for nutrients within those regions.The lake reference conditions for nutrients could be inferred inversely from the law of mass conservation,current lake nutrient concentration,and the loadings from watershed.Considering the scarcity of hydrological and water quality data associated with lakes and watersheds in China,as well as the low requirement of the watershed nutrient loadings models for these data,the soil conservation service(SCS) distributed hydrological model and the universal soil loss equation(USLE) were applied.The SCS model simulates the runoff process of the watershed,thereby calculating dissolved nutrients annually.The USLE estimates the soil erosion and particulate nutrients annually in a watershed.Then,with the loadings from atmospheric deposition and point source,the previous annual average nutrient concentrations could be acquired given the current nutrient concentrations in a lake.Therefore,the nutrient reference conditions minimally impacted by human activities could be estimated.Based on the proposed model,the reference conditions for total nitrogen and total phosphorus of Chaohu Lake,Anhui Province,China are 0.031 mg/L and 0.640 mg/L,respectively.The proposed reference conditions estimation model is of clear physical concept,and less data required.Thus,the proposed approach can be used in other lakes with similar circumstances.