当前地震预报面临的主要科学问题、解决的科学思路、技术途径及建议

地震预测，尤其是短临地震预测是当代自然科学的一个世界性科学难题。文章总结归纳了当前地震预报面临的主要科学问题；提出了突破地震预报难关的科学思路和技术途径，以及今后开展地震预报研究的建议。     

南北地震带强震复发间隔的估计

通过对南北地震带各主要断裂带历史强震的时空特点研究 ,试图寻找出带内各主要构造带强震的复发和填充特征 ,并在此基础上研究其差异性 ,对未来各带发生强震的危险性作出估计     

Earthquake—generating Structure Revealed by 1999 Sichuan mianzhu Earthquake Sequence with Ms=5.0

Through the accurate determination of hypocenter location,the measurement of the main focal mechanism solutions and the analyses of time dependent processes for Sichuan Mianzhu earthquake sequence with Ms=5.0 occurred along the middle segment of Longmenshan fault zone on November 30,1999,the distribution of focal depth section,the stress relase and seismicity features are given to reveal the earthquake-geneating structure of the earthquake sequence.The obtained results show the activity features for this sequence as follows:(1) There is no obvious foreshock,the accumulated strain energy releases in nearly pulse way,fluctuation of the seismic activity level is not quite evident during the duration of the sequence,and the statistical relation between the large events and the small events is less compatible with the traditional G-R estimation;(2) The epicenters of the earthquake sequence are not distributed on the main Longmenshan piedmont faults emerging out ground,but near the hidden Longmenshan piedmont faults.The direction of epicenter distribution is not very coincident with the fault strikes.The microscopic epicenters are relatively far from the macroscopic epicenters,The focal depths range from 5km to 16km;(3) The fractures of focal fault plane with the NE strike appear out the strike-slip displacement with a few overthrust components under the major principal compressive stress of NNE direction.From these,we consider it should be paid more attentions to the underground hidden faults near the ground fault zone on a large scale for their generating earthquake risk.     

Focal Fault of the 1999 Datong Ms5.6 Earthquake in Shanxi Province

Several earthquakes with Ms≥5.0 occurred in the Datong seismic region in 1989,1991 and 1999,The precise focus location of the earthquake sequence was made by the records of the remote sensing seismic station network in Datong.Using that data together with macro-intensity distribution and focal mechanism solutions,we analyze the difference among three subsequences.The results show that the focal fault of the 1999 Ms 5.6 earthquake was a NWW-trending left-lateral strike-slip fault.It is 16km long and 12km wide.It developed at the depth of 5km and is nearly vertical in dip.The two previous earthquake subsequences,however,were generated by activity along NNE-trending right-lateral strike-slip fault.It can be found that the rupture directioin of the 1999 earthquake has changed.It is generally found that a rupture zone has more than two directions and has different strength along these two directions.The complicate degree of focal circumstance is related to the type of earthquake sequences.There is the NE-trending Dawangcun fault and the NW-trending Tuanbu fault in the seismic region,but no proof indicates a connection between focal faults and these two tectonic faults.The feature that focal faults of three subsequences are strike-slip is different from that of the two tectonic faults.It is suggested that the 1999 earthquake subsequence was possibly generated by a new rupture.     

新疆北天山Ms≥5.0地震前的中长期地震活动空间图像特征

对新疆北天山l931年以来6级以上、l970年以来5级以上地震前的地震活动空间图像进行了分析，发现震前多有不同程度的地震空区或条带出现，其孕育时间一般为8－14年；震源深度呈现由浅而深、通常超过25km的变化，孕育时间一般为3—4年。同时对上述地震活动空间图像前兆特征的机理进行了定性分析，并对所选资料的精度等问题进研了讨论。     

论雅江-盐源-永胜地震构造带的新活动与分段危险性

研究了四川雅江，盐源至云南永胜复杂地震构造区的分段地震活动性以及震源力学作用形式和震型特征；以现今强震活动空段，最新地壳形观测图像，突出的震群活动给出该地震构区未来强震危险性的认识。     

基于高温高压岩石破裂实验结果对中强地震前震中附近区域部分地震学现象的初步解释

依据高温高压岩石破裂实验结果并结合理论分析，对 附近区域不同深度温压条件下岩石变形破坏性质及破坏失稳的力学行为进行了研究，在一次应力加载循环中，发生破坏的部位随时间具有向深部下迁的趋势。考虑到深度温压条件下岩石的渐进式破坏行为及突发失稳，对主震前震中附近区域小地震活动的增强、平静、活化等现象，以及b值等时间序列参数变化的可能机理进行初步探讨，并简单讨论了两类平静和两类b值变化的可能原因。     

地表剥蚀作用对地应力场反演的影响

岩体自重和剥蚀作用都是形成岩体初始应力场的重要因素。在地应力回归分析中，反演所得岩体重度往往大于实测重度。通过算例说明，地表剥蚀作用因素是导致该结果的主要原因，并分析了由此产生的一些工程应用问题。     

玛尼7.9级地震对昆仑山口西8.1级地震的触发作用及动力背景初探

根据库仑静应力变化的概念，对青藏块体中部地区1997年11月8日玛尼7．9级地震及2001年11月14日昆仑山口西8．1级地震的应力触发作用进行了初步研究。不同震源机制解计算结果表明，玛尼地震造成了昆仑地震断层面上10^-3MPa量级的库仑应力增量，该变化仅使得昆仑地震的发生提前了最长10年左右，表明当前地壳应变能水平可能并不很低。对照20世纪初以来全球7级以上强震频度和强度演化特征与地球自转变化的关系，认为地球自转幅度衰减、变化频率升高是近期强震活动的重要控制因素。昆仑山口西8．1级地震的发生，可能是地球自转持续加速阶段后期，青藏块体内部区域应力场逐渐强化，及玛尼地震应力触发的结果。     

岫岩-海城5.4级地震前小震震源机制解与记录特征分析

采用Pn、Pg初始波初动符号，利用乌尔夫网上半球投影，用作图方法求解了岫岩－海城震区（1999年1月－1999年11月29日）主震前辽宁数字地震台网记录（ML≥2.5)的41个小震的震源机制参数。结合前震记录的某些特征，对主震前应力方向的时空变化，震源错动性质进行分析和讨论。