不同边界层参数化方案在中国西南地区东部高分辨率气候模拟中的敏感性研究

为了进一步评估和提高区域模式对西南地区东部高分辨率气候的模拟能力,利用 WRF模式,采用 多种边界层参数化方案（下称“不同方案”）对西南地区东部 1998—2019年夏季降水和气温进行双重嵌套模拟 （外层为D01,内层为D02）。对比不同方案模拟结果表明：多年平均降水量在D01中基本为湿偏差;D02中在四 川盆地和重庆低海拔地区为干偏差,湿偏差主要位于贵州和重庆的城口、石柱和武隆一带的地形复杂区;总体 上D01中ACM2方案误差最小,D02中MYJ方案误差最小。对多年平均气温的模拟在D01中除了四川盆地一 带为暖偏差外其余大部地区基本为冷偏差,D02 中大部地区为暖偏差;总体上 D01 和 D02 中 MYJ方案误差最 小,YSU方案最大。对于降水量和平均气温年际变化的模拟技巧在D01和D02中相对较高的地区均集中在重 庆中西部和湖北大部地区;降水量总体为 YSU 方案最高,MYJ 方案最低;平均气温总体为 MYJ 方案最高, ACM2方案最低。因此,提升模式分辨率至对流尺度后对不同气象要素模拟技巧最优的方案存在差异,需根据 业务情况选择适合本地的参数化方案。     

Depositional environments in the Telychian Stage (Silurian) of the central Oslo region,Norway

The Telychian succession in the central Oslo region was previously interpreted as deposited in a relatively deep, calm environment showing a continuous transgressive development. A new analysis of fossil assemblages shows that sediments in the central districts were deposited at varying water depths in an environment marked by intense infaunal activity in soft substrates. Two small-scale fluctuations in sea level are attributed to eustasy. The maximum deepening events occurred during the Monograptus turriculatus and Monoclimacis crenulata graptolite zones. Previous depositional models include development of a trough to the north of the Oslo region in early Telychian time, which formed due to isostatic loading caused by an advancing thrust front of the Caledonian Orogeny. Bathymetric analysis shows a deepening in the Ringerike district in the latest Aeronian, which here is interpreted as a distal effect of the loading to the north. The local deepening led to reversal of the epicontinental slope between the northern and western districts and the central districts and the development of an east–west elongate positive area further south. The thrust front acted as a source of siliciclastic material; and when the front halted in mid-Telychian time the trough was filled in gradually by a prograding coast or delta. The diachronous Vik Formation is viewed as a distal development of this progradation. When the east–west oriented positive area subsided the Vik Formation was deposited in Skien to the south.     

利用光变曲线估计猎鹰九号火箭末级的旋转状态研究

光度观测是地基观测空间目标的主要手段之一,利用光度信息能够估计空间目标的相关特征信息.为了更好地了解空间目标的旋转状态,选取具有代表性的猎鹰九号火箭末级作为研究对象,由其光变信息研究旋转状态.首先利用云南天文台1.2 m光学望远镜获取猎鹰九号火箭末级的光度数据,再对目标星等进行斜距归一化,得到目标光变信息并分析目标星等...     

日照港30万吨油码头船舶泊稳物理模型试验研究

日照港拟在岚北港区建设30万吨级原油码头,通过实验测定了船舶在风、浪、流作用下对码头结构的作用力、船舶运动量最大值、最大缆绳拉力、船舶对护舷撞击能量和撞击力,为工程结构设计和操船规程的制定提供可靠依据。     

区域可持续发展能力的能值与(火用)耦合分析模型构建

可持续发展能力评价方法是识别人地协同规律、支撑科学决策的重要工具和热点需求。通过文献回顾与理论分析框架构建,耦合能值及?方法,提出自组织能力指数（SO）、生态压力指数（EP）、可持续发展能力指数（SC）构成的,基于热力学理论的可持续发展能力分析模型,利用文献荟萃法筛选17个典型发达国家1985年状态值计算SO与EP阈值,划分了4个阶段。利用中美两国1985-2015年特征对比验证,结果显示：① 2005年以前中国属“低自组织能力、低生态压力”阶段,之后进入“低自组织能力、高生态压力”阶段,存在低生态效率、规模扩张驱动特征;美国一直属“高自组织能力、高生态压力”阶段,存在高生态效率驱动、经济与生态脱钩特征,与全球生态足迹网络和世界自然基金会等的研究结果一致,模型具有较好适应性和可靠性。② 模型利用“获得?量/输入能值量”表达经济社会生态效率、“经济社会?损耗量/生态系统年产?量”表达生态压力,连接了经济社会对生态基底的熵化路径,可识别区域所处可持续发展阶段、分析水平变化和驱动因素。③ 模型以人类与生态并重的视角,从深度上反映经济社会的生态效率、从广度上评价生态空间被占用比例,具有宏观规模与微观效率分析相结合的优势,是对经典方法的补充。     

"资源一号"02C卫星影像土地利用变化检测能力分析

“资源一号”02C卫星自成功发射以来,被广泛应用于土地资源、矿产资源、地质环境调查,以及国土资源、地质灾害应急监测等应用领域。“资源一号”02C卫星是一颗填补我国高分辨率遥感数据空白的卫星,是根据国土资源主体业务需求定制的第一颗国产高分辨率业务卫星。本文以吉林省和浙江省某试验区“资源一号”02C卫星数据为例,对“资源一号”02C卫星数据融合影像进行了土地利用遥感监测变化信息检测能力的方法试验。根据试验区数据变化信息提取试验结果,对“资源一号”02C卫星影像在土地利用动态遥感监测中的变化检测能力和适用性开展了试验、分析和评价工作。     

VIIRS/DNB夜间灯光月度产品插补方法对比——以北京为例

新一代VIIRS/DNB(Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Day/Night Band)夜间灯光数据因其具备更精细的时空分辨率、数据不存在饱和现象、不同年份数据可比性强等优点而迅速代替DMSP/OLS(Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System)夜间灯光数据成为新的研究热点。但由于杂散光的污染,VIIRS/DNB夏季数据数值缺失严重,致使数据在空间和时间上不连续,因此,插补缺失数据成为后续应用的前提。鉴于此,论文从插补结果异常值、与参照值对比、计算性能三个方面,系统比较了三次样条插值(样条)、三次Hermite插值(Hermite)、灰色预测模型(GM)、三次指数平滑法(指数)4种插补方法的适用性,以期为插补VIIRS/DNB夜间灯光数据提供方法选择的依据。研究结果表明：①异常值比较方面,Hermite法未出现异常值,另外3种算法仅出现少量异常值(0.02%~1.34%);②与参照值的对比方面,Hermite法与参考值接近程度最高,GM接近程度最低,样条法和指数法介于两者中间;③算法性能比较方面,4种方法都具备计算简单、容易编程的特点,但指数法的算法时长是另外3种方法的10倍以上。因此,综合多方表现,当插补月份前后两侧均有足够长的原始数据时,插补效果好、计算速度快、不会出现过冲现象的Hermite法最适宜,样条法次之;当插补月份仅单侧有足够长的数据时,适宜采用指数法(插补效果好、计算速度较慢)或GM(插补效果偏低、计算速度快)进行插补。     

京津冀协同治理的回顾与前瞻

京津冀区域治理是伴随三地协作发展的进程,从政府层面的管制转向各利益主体协调治理,从自上而下的竞争合作转向上下结合的协同合作的一系列有效应对举措。经过30多年的努力,学界和政府部门已经形成了较为丰富的京津冀区域治理研究成果。通过梳理自1984年以来相关区域的研究,尝试从时空维度厘清京津冀区域治理的研究脉络及其变化,剖析目前京津冀区域治理所涉及的治理模式、协调体系、以及形成的发展策略,为改进和提高京津冀区域治理效果提供参考。京津冀协同治理过程是学术界与政府的互动融合过程,其中政府的作用居主导地位。未来将在治理主体、治理机制、治理效果评价和文化、医疗、养老等领域的协调发展方面得到深化和细化。     

Experimental investigation of tsunami bore impact pressure on a perforated seawall

Catastrophic failures of many tsunami barriers along the affected coasts during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami has prompted extensive investigation into improving and revising design codes for tsunami defence structures. To date, researchers and coastal engineers are investigating to understand the failure mechanisms and to find solutions so that the structures merely remain intact in the extreme event such as tsunami. Thus, the present work is motivated to experimentally study tsunami-induced bore pressures exerted on vertical seawalls; a solid vertical wall and a porous vertical seawall that consisted of a perforated front wall and a solid rear wall. Bores with various heights and velocities were generated by using the dam-break method. A porous seawall with 20% porosity of perforated front wall was used in this study. Bore pressures exerted on the solid rear wall and chamber oscillations that occurred in the experiments were also discussed. The experimental results showed that multiple peak pressures were observed during bore run-up phase in the time series of bore impacts. A predictive equation to estimate the maximum bore pressure on a perforated seawall was developed using multiple regression analysis. The proposed equation was also compared with previous empirical formulas.     

Temporal variation of modulated-wave-train geometries and their influence on vertical bending moments of a container ship

A towing experiment was conducted using a modulated wave train to investigate the vertical bending responses of a hydro-structural container ship model. In the experiment, a spatially periodic modulated wave train, as a model of a freak wave in successive high waves mimicking the so-called three sisters, was generated by the recently established higher-order spectral method wave generation (HOSM-WG) method. HOSM-WG enables us to control the location and timing of the maximum crest height in a wave tank. With precise control of the towing carriage, an experiment was conducted in which the timing of the encounters between the ship model and the modulated wave train was accurately determined. The maximum sagging moment (SM) was found to increase in proportion with the encounter wave height. However, because of differences in the relative depth of the fore and aft troughs, the maximum SM is highly variable for a given wave height. The temporal wave-geometry evolution caused the relative trough-depth to vary significantly within a wave period in the vicinity of the maximum crest height. As a result, depending on the encounter timing, the SM varied considerably for a given wave height. The temporal variation of the wave geometry is a robust feature of a modulated wave train and is common between the spatially periodic and temporally periodic modulated wave trains.