Reevaluating suitability estimates based on dynamics of cropland expansion in the Brazilian Amazon

Agricultural suitability maps are a key input for land use zoning and projections of cropland expansion. Suitability assessments typically consider edaphic conditions, climate, crop characteristics, and sometimes incorporate accessibility to transportation and market infrastructure. However, correct weighting among these disparate factors is challenging, given rapid development of new crop varieties, irrigation, and road networks, as well as changing global demand for agricultural commodities. Here, we compared three independent assessments of cropland suitability to spatial and temporal dynamics of agricultural expansion in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001–2012. We found that areas of recent cropland expansion identified using satellite data were generally designated as low to moderate suitability for rainfed crop production. Our analysis highlighted the abrupt nature of suitability boundaries, rather than smooth gradients of agricultural potential, with little additional cropland expansion beyond the extent of the flattest areas (0–2% slope). Satellite-based estimates of the interannual variability in the use of existing crop areas also provided an alternate means to assess suitability. On average, cropland areas in the Cerrado biome had higher utilization (84%) than croplands in the Amazon region of northern Mato Grosso (74%). Areas of more recent expansion had lower utilization than croplands established before 2002, providing empirical evidence for lower suitability or alternative management strategies (e.g., pasture–soya rotations) for lands undergoing more recent land use transitions. This unplanted reserve constitutes a large area of potentially available cropland (PAC) without further expansion, within the management limits imposed for pest management and fallow cycles. Using two key constraints on future cropland expansion, slope and restrictions on further deforestation of Amazon or Cerrado vegetation, we found little available flat land for further legal expansion of crop production in Mato Grosso. Dynamics of cropland expansion from more than a decade of satellite observations indicated narrow ranges of suitability criteria, restricting PAC under current policy conditions, and emphasizing the advantages of field-scale information to assess suitability and utilization.     

Modelling the flow of self‐compacting concrete

A Lagrangian particle‐based method, smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH), is used in this paper to model the flow of self‐compacting concretes (SCC) with or without short steel fibres. An incompressible SPH method is presented to simulate the flow of such non‐Newtonian fluids whose behaviour is described by a Bingham‐type model, in which the kink in the shear stress vs shear strain rate diagram is first appropriately smoothed out. The viscosity of the SCC is predicted from the measured viscosity of the paste using micromechanical models in which the second phase aggregates are treated as rigid spheres and the short steel fibres as slender rigid bodies. The basic equations solved in the SPH are the incompressible mass conservation and Navier–Stokes equations. The solution procedure uses prediction–correction fractional steps with the temporal velocity field integrated forward in time without enforcing incompressibility in the prediction step. The resulting temporal velocity field is then implicitly projected on to a divergence‐free space to satisfy incompressibility through a pressure Poisson equation derived from an approximate pressure projection. The results of the numerical simulation are benchmarked against actual slump tests carried out in the laboratory. The numerical results are in excellent agreement with test results, thus demonstrating the capability of SPH and a proper rheological model to predict SCC flow and mould‐filling behaviour. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An analytical study on three‐dimensional versus two‐dimensional water table‐induced flow patterns in a Tóthian basin

Although it has been increasingly acknowledged that groundwater flow pattern is complicated in the three‐dimensional (3‐D) domain, two‐dimensional (2‐D) water table‐induced flow models are still widely used to delineate basin‐scale groundwater circulation. However, the validity of 2‐D cross‐sectional flow field induced by water table has been seldom examined. Here, we derive the analytical solution of 3‐D water table‐induced hydraulic head in a Tóthian basin and then examine the validity of 2‐D cross‐sectional models by comparing the flow fields of selected cross sections calculated by the 2‐D cross‐sectional model with those by the 3‐D model, which represents the “true” cases. For cross sections in the recharge or discharge area of the 3‐D basin, even if head difference is not significant, the 2‐D cross‐sectional models result in flow patterns absolutely different from the true ones. For the cross section following the principal direction of groundwater flow, although 2‐D cross‐sectional models would overestimate the penetrating depth of local flow systems and underestimate the recharge/discharge flux, the flow pattern from the cross‐sectional model is similar to the true one and could be close enough to the true one by adjusting the decay exponent and anisotropy ratio of permeability. Consequently, to determine whether a 2‐D cross‐sectional model is applicable, a comparison of hydraulic head difference between 2‐D and 3‐D solutions is not enough. Instead, the similarity of flow pattern should be considered to determine whether a cross‐sectional model is applicable. This study improves understanding of groundwater flow induced by more natural water table undulations in the 3‐D domain and the limitations of 2‐D models accounting for cross‐sectional water table undulation only.     

Cracking risk of partially saturated porous media—Part I: Microporoelasticity model

Drying of deformable porous media results in their shrinkage, and it may cause cracking provided that shrinkage deformations are hindered by kinematic constraints. This is the motivation to develop a thermodynamics‐based microporoelasticity model for the assessment of cracking risk in partially saturated porous geomaterials. The study refers to 3D representative volume elements of porous media, including a two‐scale double‐porosity material with a pore network comprising (at the mesoscale) 3D mesocracks in the form of oblate spheroids, and (at the microscale) spherical micropores of different sizes. Surface tensions prevailing in all interfaces between solid, liquid, and gaseous matters are taken into account. To establish a thermodynamics‐based crack propagation criterion for a two‐scale double‐porosity material, the potential energy of the solid is derived, accounting—in particular—for mesocrack geometry changes (main original contribution) and for effective micropore pressures, which depend (due to surface tensions) on the pore radius. Differentiating the potential energy with respect to crack density parameter yields the thermodynamical driving force for crack propagation, which is shown to be governed by an effective macrostrain. It is found that drying‐related stresses in partially saturated mesocracks reduce the cracking risk. The drying‐related effective underpressures in spherical micropores, in turn, result in a tensile eigenstress of the matrix in which the mesocracks are embedded. This way, micropores increase the mesocracking risk. Model application to the assessment of cracking risk during drying of argillite is the topic of the companion paper (Part II). Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Steady‐state analytical solutions of flow and deformation coupling due to a point sink within a finite fluid‐saturated poroelastic layer

An exact steady‐state closed‐form solution is presented for coupled flow and deformation of an axisymmetric isotropic homogeneous fluid‐saturated poroelastic layer with a finite radius due to a point sink. The hydromechanical behavior of the poroelastic layer is governed by Biot's consolidation theory. Boundary conditions on the lateral surface are specifically chosen to match the appropriate finite Hankel transforms and simplify the transforms of the governing equations. Ordinary differential equations in the transformed domain are solved, and then the analytical solutions in the physical space for the pore pressure and the displacements are finally obtained by using finite Hankel inversions. The analytical solutions at some special locations such as the top and bottom surfaces, lateral surface, and the symmetrical axis are given and analyzed. And a case study for the consolidation of a water‐saturated soft clay layer due to pumping is conducted. The analytical solution is verified against the finite element solution. Meanwhile, an analysis of coupled hydromechanical behavior is carried out herein. The presented analytical solution is an exact solution to the practical poroelastic problem within an axisymmetric finite layer. It can provide us a better understanding of the poroelastic behavior of the finite layer due to fluid extraction. Besides, it can be applied to calibrate numerical schemes of axisymmetric poroelasticity within finite domains. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flooding of the continental shelves as a contributor to deglacial CH4 rise

The transition from the last glacial and beginning of Bølling–Allerød and Pre‐Boreal periods in particular is marked by rapid increases in atmospheric methane (CH₄) concentrations. The CH₄ concentrations reached during these intervals, ～650–750 ppb, is twice that at the last glacial maximum and is not exceeded until the onset of industrialization at the end of the Holocene. Periods of rapid sea‐level rise as the Last Glacial Maximum ice sheets retreated and associated with ‘melt‐water pulses’ appear to coincide with the onset of elevated concentrations of CH₄, suggestive of a potential causative link. Here we identify and outline a mechanism involving the flooding of the continental shelves that were exposed and vegetated during the glacial sea‐level low stand and that can help account for some of these observations. Specifically, we hypothesize that waterlogging (and later, flooding) of large tracts of forest and savanna in the Tropics and Subtropics during the deglacial transition and early Holocene would have resulted in rapid anaerobic decomposition of standing biomass and emission of methane to the atmosphere. This novel mechanism, akin to the consequences of filling new hydroelectric reservoirs, provides a mechanistic explanation for the apparent synchronicity between rate of sea‐level rise and occurrence of elevated concentrations of ice core CH₄. However, shelf flooding and the creation of transient wetlands are unlikely to explain more than ～60 ppb of the increase in atmospheric CH₄ during the deglacial transition, requiring additional mechanisms to explain the bulk of the glacial to interglacial increase. Similarly, this mechanism has the potential also to play some role in the rapid changes in atmospheric methane associated with the Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The data‐driven approach as an operational real‐time flood forecasting model

Accurate water level forecasts are essential for flood warning. This study adopts a data‐driven approach based on the adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast the daily water levels of the Lower Mekong River at Pakse, Lao People's Democratic Republic. ANFIS is a hybrid system combining fuzzy inference system and artificial neural networks. Five ANFIS models were developed to provide water level forecasts from 1 to 5 days ahead, respectively. The results show that although ANFIS forecasts of water levels up to three lead days satisfied the benchmark, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts were only slightly better in performance compared with the currently adopted operational model. This limitation is imposed by the auto‐ and cross‐correlations of the water level time series. Output updating procedures based on the autoregressive (AR) and recursive AR (RAR) models were used to enhance ANFIS model outputs. The RAR model performed better than the AR model. In addition, a partial recursive procedure that reduced the number of recursive steps when applying the AR or the RAR model for multi‐step‐ahead error prediction was superior to the fully recursive procedure. The RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure significantly improved three‐, four‐ and five‐lead‐day forecasts. Our study further shows that for long lead times, ANFIS model errors are dominated by lag time errors. Although the ANFIS model with the RAR‐based partial recursive updating procedure provided the best results, this method was able to reduce the lag time errors significantly for the falling limbs only. Improvements for the rising limbs were modest. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Borehole failure analysis in a sandstone under anisotropic stresses

Borehole failure under anisotropic stresses in a sandstone is analyze numerically for various borehole sizes using a nonlinear elastic–plastic constitutive model for a Cosserat continuum. Borehole failure is identified as macroscopic failure of the borehole through the development of shear bands and breakouts. The results compare well both qualitatively and quantitatively with experimental results from polyaxial tests on Red Wildmoor sandstone. They show that the hole size effect of the borehole failure strength is independent of the far‐field stress anisotropy and follows a ? power law of the hole size. A similar scale effect equation with a ? power law is proposed for the scale effect of the maximum plastic shear strain at failure. This equation can be useful for better predicting hole‐size‐dependent failure with standard codes based on classical continua. The effect of stress anisotropy on the borehole failure stress is found to be independent of the hole size. The failure stress decreases linearly to 40% as the stress anisotropy increases. However, the maximum plastic shear strain at failure is stress anisotropy independent and therefore the critical plastic shear strain for failure is only hole‐size dependent. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tropical precipitation anomalies and d‐excess evolution during El Niño 2014‐16

The last 2014‐16 El Niño event was among the three strongest episodes on record. El Niño considerably changes annual and seasonal precipitation across the tropics. Here, we present a unique stable isotope data set of daily precipitation collected in Costa Rica prior to, during, and after El Niño 2014‐16, in combination with Lagrangian moisture source and precipitation anomaly diagnostics. δ²H composition ranged from ‐129.4 to +18.1 (‰) while δ¹⁸O ranged from ‐17.3 to +1.0 (‰). No significant difference was observed among δ¹⁸O (P=0.186) and δ²H (P=0.664) mean annual compositions. However, mean annual d‐excess showed a significant decreasing trend (from +13.3 to +8.7 ‰) (P<0.001) with values ranging from +26.6 to ‐13.9 ‰ prior to and during the El Niño evolution. The latter decrease in d‐excess can be partly explained by an enhanced moisture flux convergence across the southeastern Caribbean Sea coupled with moisture transport from northern South America by means of an increased Caribbean Low Level Jet regime. During 2014‐15, precipitation deficit across the Pacific domain averaged 46% resulting in a very severe drought; while a 94% precipitation surplus was observed in the Caribbean domain. Understanding these regional moisture transport mechanisms during a strong El Niño event may contribute to a) better understanding of precipitation anomalies in the tropics and b) re‐evaluate past stable isotope interpretations of ENSO events in paleoclimatic archives within the Central America region.