We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.
We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.
The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.
ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.
Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates. 相似文献
Ultrahelvetic units of the Eastern Alps were deposited on the distal European continental margin of the (Alpine) Tethys. The Rehkogelgraben section (“Buntmergelserie”, Ultrahelvetic unit, Upper Austria) comprises a 5 m thick succession of upper Cenomanian marl-limestone cycles overlain by a black shale interval composed of three black shale layers and carbonate-free claystones, followed by lower Turonian white to light grey marly limestones with thin marl layers. The main biostratigraphic events in the section are the last occurrence of Rotalipora and the first occurrences of Helvetoglobotruncana helvetica and Quadrum gartneri. The thickest black shale horizon has a TOC content of about 5%, with predominantly marine organic matter of kerogen type II. Vitrinite reflectance and Rock-Eval parameter Tmax (<424 °C) indicate low maturity. HI values range from 261 to 362 mg HC/g TOC. δ13C values of bulk rock carbonates display the well documented positive shift around the black shale interval, allowing correlation of the Rehkogelgraben section with other sections such as the Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) succession at Pueblo, USA, and reference sections at Eastbourne, UK, and Gubbio, Italy. Sediment accumulation rates at Rehkogelgraben (average 2.5 mm/ka) are significantly lower than those at Pueblo and Eastbourne. 相似文献
Water resources are a key factor, particularly for the planning of the sustainable regional development of agriculture, as
well as for socio-economic development in general. A hydrochemical investigation was conducted in the Friuli Venezia Giulia
aquifer systems to identify groundwater evolution, recharge and extent of pollution. Temperature, pH, electric conductivity,
total dissolved solids, alkalinity, total hardness, SAR, Ca2+, Na+, K+, Mg2+, Cl−, SO42−, NO3−, HCO3−, water quality and type, saturation indexes and the environmental stable isotope δ18O were determined in 149 sampling stations. The pattern of geochemical and oxygen stable isotope variations suggests that
the sub-surface groundwater (from phreatic and shallow confined aquifers) is being recharged by modern precipitations and
local river infiltrations. Four hydrogeological provinces have been recognised and mapped in the Friuli Venezia Giulia Plain
having similar geochemical signatures. These provinces have different degrees of vulnerability to contamination. The deep
confined groundwater samples are significantly less impacted by surface activities; and it appears that these important water
resources have very low recharge rates and would, therefore, be severely impacted by overabstraction. 相似文献
The aim of this paper is to analyze the reactivation mechanism of ancient earth flows, with a view to gleaning information that can subsequently be utilized to formulate a risk-reduction strategy. All considerations made herein are the result of direct experience and observation of actual events which have occurred over the past few decades in the Northern Apennines. Particular attention has been paid to the analysis of the evolution of landslides during actual reactivation, acknowledging a typical, recurring succession of events that precede the failure of the slope. The hazard assessment of these large landslide bodies, which are of slope scale, constitutes a thorny problem, especially in view of the inapplicability of traditional deterministic models such as limit equilibrium stability analysis. Nevertheless, a site-specific assessment of probability of reactivation of these large and ancient earth flows is fundamental to effective land-use planning. 相似文献
Deep dissolution affects great part of soluble rocks (e.g. gypsum and anhydrite) of the Western Italian Alps. The related superficial phenomena (sinkholes, gravity-induced processes and a local worsening of geomechanical rock properties) are not limited to typical karsts landscape and cause slope instability also affecting populated sites and infrastructures. The paper aims to describe general characteristic of dissolution phenomena, to interpret their conditioning factors and evolutionary stages and to assess possible hazards due to their superficial effects.The search for evidences of deep dissolution leads to the selection of representative sites in the central part of the Western Italian Alps (Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta Region). Detailed geological and geomorphological studies have been used to classify the selected sites by type, size and variable state of activity. Very different evolutionary stages of dissolution phenomena have been interpreted by comparison of case-studies: some are early “embryonic”; others are more evolved, up to typical sinkholes, or even remodelled by other phenomena. Some cases show an extreme complexity in the interactions between corrosion phenomena and other geomorphic processes: slope deformations, from one side, and karst, fluvial and glacial phenomena, to the other. A wide range of movement rates on slope instabilities induced by deep dissolution have been estimated by topographic and geomorphic data. Geochemical data on removed rocks by dissolution indicate 0.4 mm/year values for local subsidence. Historical and technical data indicate low frequency of major dissolution-induced collapses, but highlight widespread damages to tunnels, roads and buildings, especially along slopes. 相似文献
This paper investigates the Italian fascist regime’s use of internal colonisation as part of a wider ruralisation policy aimed at promoting population growth, curbing rural-urban migration, staunching emigration, and halting the spread of industrial urbanisation. By focusing on the case study of the Pontine Marshes, the paper demonstrates how, through targeted selection procedures aimed at displacing defined social and political undesirables, migrants were chosen and effectively coerced into migrating to the “fascist” landscape of the marshes. The area, reclaimed and developed in the 1930s, was celebrated as a sign of the regime’s engineering and social success. The paper utilises Antonio Gramsci’s thought on hegemony, and argues that the overt use of coercion hints at the fact that fascism, although ideologically totalitarian and hegemonic, was contested. Although statisticians, demographers and state bureaucrats were organised and institutionalised in the construction of hegemony based on consent, fascism based itself more in coercion than in passive consent in the case of internal colonisation. 相似文献
A certain number of studies have been carried out in recent years that aim at developing and applying a model capable of assessing
water erosion of soil. Some of these have tried to quantitatively evaluate the volumes of soil loss, while others have focused
their efforts on the recognition of the areas most prone to water erosion processes. This article presents the results of
a research whose objective was that of evaluating water erosion susceptibility in a Sicilian watershed: the Naro river basin.
A geomorphological study was carried out to recognize the water erosion landforms and define a set of parameters expressing
both the intensity of hydraulic forces and the resistance of rocks/soils. The landforms were mapped and classified according
to the dominant process in landsurfaces affected by diffuse or linear water erosion. A GIS layer was obtained by combining
six determining factors (bedrock lithology, land use, soil texture, plan curvature, stream power index and slope-length factor)
in unique conditions units. A geostatistical multivariate approach was applied by analysing the relationships between the
spatial distributions of the erosion landforms and the unique condition units. Particularly, the density of eroded area for
each combination of determining factors has been calculated: such function corresponds, in fact, to the conditional probability
of erosion landforms to develop, under the same geoenvironmental conditions. In light of the obtained results, a general geomorphologic
model for water erosion in the Naro river basin can be depicted: cultivated areas in clayey slopes, having fine-medium soil
texture, are the most prone to be eroded; linear or diffuse water erosion processes dominate where the topography is favourable
to a convergent or divergent runoff, respectively. For each of the two erosion process types, a susceptibility map was produced
and submitted to a validation procedure based on a spatial random partition strategy. Both the success of the validation procedure
of the susceptibility models and the geomorphological coherence of the relationships between factors and process that such
models suggest, confirm the reliability of the method and the goodness of the predictions. 相似文献
Abstract. The interaction of coastal and submarine morphology with the hydrodynamic regimes exerts a control on coastal dynamic processes, conditioning the dispersion of sediments and potential pollutants existing in the area. Thus, the study of such parameters is useful in order to define environmental threats. Within the submerged sector of the Bagnoli coast and particularly in the southern part of the investigated area, there are sediment groups composed of very fine sands located in low-energy zones due to wave refraction and diffraction; they can also be found on the sea bottom and on the man-made structures typical of this zone. These areas show high pollutant levels of N, P, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn, Cd, polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and polychlorinated bi-phenyls (PCBs). The northern area, a place of high-energy hydrodynamic processes, also shows high concentration levels of pollutants due to the presence of secondary cell circulation. Morphological research and analysis of textural characteristics of bottom sediments along the Bagnoli coast allowed the actual processes and their evolution in space and time to be defined. It has also been possible to correlate such processes to the seabed morphology system, the wave formations which affect the coast, the complex system of sediment transport, as well as to the man-made interventions in the area. The results of recent chemical analyses of beach sediments and bottom sediments off the Bagnoli coast were also incorporated. They prove the presence of heavy metals, PAHs and PCBs in high and sometimes very high concentrations. Finally, based on the results of research and analyses, a hypothesis for an intervention for environmental restoration has been formulated in order to renaturalise the coast through dredging and treatment of the sand, both on the seabed and on the emerged beach. 相似文献
The goal of this study is to estimate the efficiency of dewatering operations in Alassio Beach, north Italy by following an integrated approach which included beach volume calculations, daily mapping of the shoreline position, examination of specific beach widening events and daily comparisons of morphodynamic characteristics of the drained beach versus a control section which included wave run-up, bar patterns, rip migration, evolution of the berm and cusp morphology. 相似文献