西北太平洋区域纬向风垂直切变的气候特征研究

西北太平洋区域纬向风垂直切变的变化是影响西北太平洋热带气旋生成和发展的一个重要的动力因子,弱的纬向风切变有利于热带气旋的发生、发展。文中将西北太平洋区域纬向风垂直切变幅度(MWS)定义为850与200 hPa的纬向风之差的绝对值,以研究MWS的气候特征。结果表明,西北太平洋区域的MWS有两个主要空间模态,第1空间模态表现为在15°N以南的热带西太平洋存在MWS东西向变化相反的两个区域,20°N附近的热带西太平洋MWS的变化与其以北海区的MWS的变化相反。第2空间模态表现为在热带太平洋140°E东、西的变化相反。研究了两个模态相关的大气环流特征,发现去掉强ENSO信号后,第1模态不但与低纬度大气环流有关,而且还与南、北半球中高纬度的大气环流有关,第2模态主要与热带西太平洋和北太平洋局地大气环流有关。另外,第1模态的时间系数与赤道东太平洋海温、西北太平洋台风生成频次有着密切联系;第2模态时间系数与西北太平洋台风活动频次联系密切。     

基于GIS的贵州省冰雹分布与地形因子关系分析

使用贵州省1961—2004年84个气象台站44年历史冰雹记录及1:1000000全国数字高程模型(DEM)资料, 采用基于GIS的数字地形分析、分区统计和图像分类方法, 研究了冰雹分布与地形高程、坡向、坡度及地形切割深度的关系。研究表明:地形高程是影响贵州省降雹分布的最主要地形影响因子; 微观地形因子如坡向和坡度对降雹日数的变异并没有显著性影响, 但大范围的地势抬升及暖湿空气的迎风坡有利于降雹; 地形切割深度并不是年平均降雹日数差异的显著影响因子; 纬度位置的不同, 使其受暖湿空气影响程度不同, 热力条件也存在差异, 也是影响平均降雹日数差异的因子之一; 根据3个影响因子建模获得的方程及贵州省冰雹风险分区图, 经统计检验和与历史乡镇降雹资料比较, 具有较好的一致性。     

高低层纬向风切变的年际变率及气候学意义

用1959～1998共40年全球格点风场资料计算了200 hPa与850 hPa的纬向风速差, 即对流层纬向风切变(简称TZWS),并在此基础上得到其距平值。为了全面考察对流层中环流异常的年际变率特征, 根据TZWS的标准差分布, 文中选出了7个TZWS标准差数值大于5 m/s的代表性区域。这7个区域分别位于赤道中太平洋、赤道东太平洋、北太平洋亚热带地区、南太平洋亚热带地区、赤道大西洋、亚洲西南部以及东北部。前5个分别位于赤道、亚热带太平洋和大西洋的区域TZWS指数, 其年际变率与ENSO循环有密切联系, 反映了热带海洋温度异常对低纬度地区对流层环流的影响; 后2个区域的TZWS指数反映的是亚洲西南部和东北部的气候统变率, 在年际时间尺度上与ENSO循环有着明显的区别。通过对全球陆地降水和温度场的分析, 比较了热带、副热带的TZWS指数以及北极涛动指数的异同, 发现后2个区域TZWS指数能很好且能独立反映出北半球中高纬度地区陆地降水及陆地温度的异常模态。     

江南春雨的时空分布特征及其旱涝年环流差异

利用1979—2010年中国753站逐日降水资料,定义了江南春雨时间范围(12—27候)和空间范围(110~120°E,23~30°N),并通过EOF方法分析了江南春雨的时空分布特征,得到3个主要模态:全区一致型、南北反相型和东西反相型。在此基础上,利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料合成分析了江南春雨的旱涝年的环流差异。结果表明:江南春雨偏涝年,上游青藏高原东南侧的西南风增强,西太平洋副热带高压加强西伸,有利于来自副高南侧的水汽与高原南侧的水汽汇合向江南地区输送,而江南地区的上升运动也明显加强,有利于江南地区降水的产生。进一步分析发现在春雨期涝年青藏高原的热源强度明显强于旱年,导致高原东南侧的绕流增强,进而有利于江南地区的降水,而旱年情况大致相反。此外,比较旱涝年西太平洋—东亚大陆之间的纬向海陆热力差异发现,涝年大约在第11候发生冷热源的反转,旱年则在第16候反转。涝年江南地区春雨期热源强度也明显强于旱年,进一步说明江南地区冷热源的反转以及增强对于江南地区的降水具有重要的作用,同时对于判定江南春雨的季风降水性质具有重要指示意义。     

ABRUPT SEASONAL CHANGE OF ZONAL CIRCULATION OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU

The abrupt changes of zonal circulation in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) region and their likely causes are derived from National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. The zonal circulation over the TP abruptly changed in summer (31st pentad) and winter (59th pentad). The switch from summer to winter circulation is characterized by a sudden northward shift of the westerlies and the zero-velocity curve and disappearance of the westerly jet. The winter–summer switch is characterized by the reverse pattern. Therefore, the circulation conversion between summer and winter can be judged from the position of the zero-velocity curve. Curves located north of 20 °N indicate summer circulation over the TP and vice versa. The abrupt change of zonal circulation is mainly caused by the thermodynamic effect of the TP. In June, this effect causes a huge monsoon circulation cell extending from the TP to low latitudes. Consequently, the westerlies jump to the north as easterlies develop. This process, which is enhanced by the strong northerly in Coriolis, establishes the summer circulation. In October, the Hadley cell recurs as the thermal effects of the TP diminish, the westerlies rush southward, and the winter circulation is established.     

鲁西地震活动趋势分析

鲁西地处化北地台中南部,聊考察裂纵贯南北,自有历史记载以来,还未发生过７级以上大震,但中强地震发育,小震活动频率,具有较明显的周期性和条带分布特征。作者试图分析鲁西历史及现地震的时间序列和空间分布,以期鲁西地震形势有一个总体认识,对未来地震活动做一大致估计。     

Interdecadal Variations of ENSO Signals and Annual Cycles Revealed by Wavelet Analysis

Interdecadal variations of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals and annual cycles appearing in the sea surface temperature (SST) and zonal wind in the equatorial Pacific during 1950–1997 are studied by wavelet, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses. The typical timescale of ENSO is estimated to be about 40 months before the late 1970s and 48–52 months after that; the timescale increased by about 10 months. The spatial pattern of the ENSO signal appearing in SST also changed in the 1970s; before that, the area of strong signal spread over the extratropical regions, while it is confined near the equator after that. The center of the strongest signal shifted from the central and eastern equatorial Pacific to the South American coast at that time. These SST fluctuations near the equator are associated with fluctuations of zonal wiond, whose spatial pattern also shifted considerably eastward at that time. In the eastern equatorial Pacific, amplitudes of annual cycles of SST are weak in El Niño years and strong in La Niña years. This relation is not clear, however, in the 1980s and 1990s.     

An extended variable-grid global ocean circulation model and its preliminary results of the equatorial Pacific circulation

1IntroductionThetropicalPacificOceanplaysanimpor-tantroleintheclimatevariabilitiessuchasElNi-no-SouthernOscillation(ENSO)phenomenon(Chao,1993).ManystudieshavefoundthatthetropicalPacificvariabilitiescanhavesignifi-cantinfluenceontheoceancirculationintheseasadjacenttoChina(Yu,1985;Chaoetal.,1996;Wangetal.,2002).TheseaareaadjacenttoChinaischaracterizedbyitscomplextopog-raphyandnumerousnarrowstraits,andthusre-quiresafinegridtoresolve.Tostudytheinter-actionbetweenthetropicalPacificandChinas…     

冀中坳陷束鹿凹陷潜山不整合特征与油气运聚模式

本文从冀中坳陷束鹿凹陷潜山顶面不整合接触类型及分布规律、结构特征及输导类型出发,精细刻画了不整合面之下半风化岩石层的垂向岩溶分带特征。在此基础上对典型剖面烃源岩热演化、油气运移进行模拟,建立了研究区潜山油气的运聚模式。结果表明,束鹿凹陷潜山顶面不整合包括4种接触类型、5种结构模式,具有3种输导类型,其中斜坡区和洼槽区西部以侧向型为主,斜坡区局部构造高点与洼中隆为侧向+圈闭型,凸起区以侧向+垂向型为主。不整合面之下半风化岩石孔缝洞体系发育,垂向上可划分为表层岩溶带、垂直渗流带以及三个水平潜流带,具有多期岩溶旋回特征。潜山顶部发育的垂直渗流带是油气沿不整合面运移的主力输导层,而内幕发育的多期水平潜流带是油气向内幕运移的潜在通道。深、浅部烃源岩热演化的差异以及与薄层砾岩是否接触导致了斜坡区与洼中隆潜山油气充注的差异,形成了斜坡区晚期薄层砾岩高效中转、不整合侧向运移、水平潜流带向内幕输导、顺向断层向上输导、反向断层圈闭成藏的油气运聚模式。     

Zonal distribution of the erosion-landslide and soil micromorphological features in purple hilly region

In the purple hilly region, erosions and landslides are all serious, and it is of great scientific value and practical significance to study their formation mechanism and distribution features there.In this paper, soil micromorphological methods and techniques were used to study the erosion zonal distribution in the region. The results indicated: (1)According to erosion process, the spacial distribution zones of the erosions and landslides in the purple hilly region with different solums were divided into scouring erosion zone, transport-diffusion zone, rocks and soil turbulence zone and sediment-bury zone; (2) The soil micromorphologic taxonomic feature identifying different erosion-landslide zone were found by studying the soil micromorphology of erosive zone in purple hilly region; (3) As for the erosion-landslide formation in the region, besides the external factors, the internal factors were found more important and favorable for landslide formation through the studies on the micormorphologieal features of slide soil.