北太平洋中纬度地区加热场2年～4年振荡的诊断分析

对北太平洋中纬度地区蒸发潜热、净长波辐射、感热输送和净太阳射入辐射场的30年逐月平均资料进行功率谱、滤波、主分量和相关分析,讨论它们的时间演变特征。结果表明各场均具有2年～4年周期的年际振荡特征,并发现这种准周期振荡与ENSO之间有联系。     

1998年长江中下游特大洪灾的土地利用思考

１９９８年夏季,长江发生了１９５４年以来的又一次全流域大洪水,造成大量农田被淹,作物减产,房屋倒塌,经济损失严重。引起这次洪涝灾害的原因除气候异常,雨水过大外,人类忽视林地保护,围垦,填占湖泊,改变湖泊用途也起了不能忽视的作用。从土地利用角度对此作了详细分析并对未来的土地利用方略作了探讨。     

钱塘江流域洪涝年的综合预测分析

洪涝是各种因子综合作用的结果。由于这些因子表现出趋势变化,周期变化和偶然变化等规律,因而洪涝序列中带有趋势变化,周期变化和随机变化等成分。这样,根据趋势变化分析,周期变化分析和随机变化分析综合集成的方法来寻求钱塘江流域洪涝年的长期变化 可行的,提出的综合预测模型效果较好。     

STUDY OF ANOMALOUS SST FIELD IN TROPICAL PACIFIC IN PRECEDING YEARS OF TWO PATTERNS OF ENSO EVENTS

Analyzing the anomalous field of SST over the tropical Pacific for two kinds of ENSO events after 1956. we find that in the preceding year before the eastern pattern of El Nino event there is the La Nina event and large negative anomalies of SST in the tropical central and eastern Pacific; the preceding year before the eastern pattern of La Nina event witnesses the prevalence of the El Nino event and large positive anomalies of SST in the same waters: the preceding year before the central patterns of the El Nino (La Nina) events are generally marked by significant positive (negative) SST anomalies in central/western (eastern) tropical Pacific. The fields are just the opposite for two patterns of ENSO events. For waters in the warm pool in the western tropical Pacific, the central (eastern) pattern of El Nino event is with a warm (cool) preceding year of the pool. The warmer conditions in the western Pacific warm pool are a necessity for the occurrence of the central pattern of El Nino event.     

埃尔－尼诺年西北太平洋的台风活动

文中统计分析了１９４９～１９９１年西北太平洋近赤道地区（０°～１０°Ｎ，１２５°～１８０°Ｅ）和热带地区（１０°～２５°Ｎ，１２５°～１８０°Ｅ）的台风日数。发现埃尔－尼诺年上述两地区的台风日数明显偏多。因此，冬、春各季该地区的台风日数、可作为该年是否可能发生埃尔－尼诺的一个预报指标。     

Quantitative studies of global seismicity (2)

In this paper, the seismicity indexes of global earthquakesM ≥ 6 during 1964–1983 were calculated, using data of ISC and USGS. The authors suggested a method suitable to make a set of regression formulas betweenm _bandM _s. Calculation showed that the level of global seismicity of shallow earthquakes during the years 1964–1965, 1968, 1971, 1975–1976 was higher than normal, especially the peak for the years 1975–1976 was more conspicuous. The year 1984 took the place of the year 1954 in the 20th century as the year of lowest global shallow focus seismicity. According to the actual value ofA(b) calculated, the level of deep focus seismicity reached the highest point in 1971 and dropped to the lowest point in 1977. In the time interval of 1977–1983 the global shallow focus seismicity decreased continuously whereas the deep focus seismicity increased with fluctuations.     

2015/2016和1997/1998超强El Nio衰减年我国夏季降水异常的比较

El Nio可通过海—气相互作用遥相关型影响东亚季风,进而影响中国气候,是中国短期气候最重要的预测指标之一。典型的El Nio事件通常在春、夏季开始,在秋、冬季成熟,在下一年的春、夏季消退,考虑到海—气作用的滞后效应,El Nio事件甚至可以在消退时期对东亚大气环流系统造成影响。因此,利用中国160站的逐月降水资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及美国NOAA提供的全球海温数据,对比分析了2015/2016年和1997/1998年典型El Nio衰减年我国夏季降水和东亚环流特征的差异,并讨论了造成差异的可能原因。结果表明:1)2016年和2008年夏季降水都大范围偏多,2016年夏季降水异常更为集中,但降水强度不及1998年。2)2016年降水的季节推进特征不明显。1998年6—8月的降水逐渐从南向北推进,与传统的季风降水演变进程较为一致。3)2016年和2008年我国夏季降水的差异与副热带高压的变化有直接的关系。1998年6—7月副热带高压较2016年同期偏西偏南,而2016年8月副热带高压更为偏西并明显比气候平均偏北。4)1997/1998年El Nio事件中的赤道西太平洋异常冷海温比较强盛,而2015/2016年基本表现为偏暖,可能是造成1998年6—7月副热带高压较2016年同期偏西偏南的原因。     

Scintillometer-Based Turbulent Fluxes of Sensible and Latent Heat Over a Heterogeneous Land Surface – A Contribution to Litfass-2003

The performance of a combined large aperture scintillometer (LAS) and a millimetre wave scintillometer (MWS) for estimating surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat over natural landscape is investigated, using data gathered during LITFASS-2003. For this purpose the LAS–MWS system was installed in a moderate heterogeneous landscape over a path length of 4.7 km with an effective beam height of 43 m. The derived surface fluxes have been compared with aggregated eddy-covariance (EC) measurements. The fluxes of sensible and latent heat from the LAS–MWS combination, as well as sensible heat fluxes of the single LAS, agreed fairly well with the EC-based fluxes, considering the uncertainties of the similarity stability functions and observed energy imbalance.     

连续特枯年份下呼包平原水资源短缺的对策研究

文章对呼包平原地下水多年平均补给量和可开采资源量进行了评价,并运用51年降水资料分析确定了特枯年份的降水量,预测了该地区在连续特枯年份下的地下水水量及水位的变化情况。结果表明:地下水多年平均可开采资源量为5.850 5×108m3,在连续遭遇特枯年份下累计动用储存量达7.529 5×108m3,潜水和承压含水层地下水位出现大幅度下降,其中漏斗中心主要分布在呼和浩特和包头市城区。结合呼包平原现状条件下地下水资源评价情况,文章有针对性地提出该地区连续遭遇特枯年份下的水资源对策。     

Inversion of travel times obtained during active seismic refraction experiments CELEBRATION 2000, ALP 2002 and SUDETES 2003

A series of kinematic inversions based on robust non-linear optimization approach were performed using travel time data from a series of seismic refraction experiments: CELEBRATION 2000, ALP 2002 and SUDETES 2003. These experiments were performed in Central Europe from 2000 to 2003. Data from 8 profiles (CEL09, CEL10, Alp01, S01, S02, S03, S04 and S05) were processed in this study. The goal of this work was to find seismic velocity models yielding travel times consistent with observed data. Optimum 2D inhomogeneous isotropic P-wave velocity models were computed. We have developed and used a specialized two-step inverse procedure. In the first “parametric” step, the velocity model contains interfaces whose shapes are defined by a number of parameters. The velocity along each interface is supposed to be constant but may be different along the upper and lower side of the interface. Linear vertical interpolation is used for points in between interfaces. All parameters are searched for using robust non-linear optimization (Differential Evolution algorithm). Rays are continuously traced by the bending technique. In the second “tomographic” step, small-scale velocity perturbations are introduced in a dense grid covering the currently obtained velocity model. Rays are fixed in this step. Final velocity models yield travel time residuals comparable to typical picking errors (RMS ∼ 0.1 s). As a result, depth-velocity cross-sections of P waves along all processed profiles are obtained. The depth range of the models is 35–50 km, the velocity varies in the range 3.5–8.2 km/s. Lowest velocities are detected in near-surface depth sections crossing sedimentary formations. The middle crust is generally more homogeneous and has typical P wave velocity around 6 km/s. Surprisingly the lower crust is less homogeneous and the computed velocity is in the range 6.5–7.5 km/s. The MOHO is detected in the depth ≈30–45 km.