全球变暖减缓背景下欧亚秋冬温度变化特征和原因

采用气候序列变化趋势诊断和一元线性回归等分析法,研究和讨论了2000-2012年和1976-1999年两种年代际背景下全球陆地不同区域的年平均地表温度的变化特征。发现欧亚大陆中高纬度地区是对全球变暖减缓贡献最大的区域。且该地区在2000年以来秋季年代际增温,而冬季年代际降温。从同期大气环流的配置来看,在对流层低层,秋季西伯利亚高气压年代际减弱,而冬季西伯利亚高气压年代际增强。在对流层中高层,秋季从西欧至东北亚为"高-低-高"的高度场异常分布,纬向环流加强,经向环流减弱,而冬季极地与贝加尔湖地区的高度场呈偶极型分布,东亚大槽加深,经向环流加强。进一步研究发现,超前一个季节的喀拉海附近的海冰与欧亚中高纬度秋冬两季温度的年代际变率有着密切的联系。一方面,夏季(秋季)海冰减少影响秋季(冬季)中高纬度大气环流;另一方面,夏季(秋季)海冰减少,使得秋季(冬季)从北极至中高纬度大陆的对流层低层水汽含量增加(减少),大气逆辐射增强(减弱)导致秋季(冬季)增温(降温)。     

利用不同方法反演冬小麦叶面积指数研究

基于高光谱数据的叶面积指数监测是快速获取冬小麦叶面积指数的重要方法。为了探究回归方法和高光谱数据变换对冬小麦叶面积指数反演精度的影响,采用逐步回归和偏最小二乘回归方法,分别建立基于冬小麦拔节期冠层高光谱数据、一阶导数光谱数据、二阶导数光谱数据和对数光谱数据的叶面积指数多元线性回归模型。结果显示,导数和对数变换能够提高冬小麦LAI反演精度,以蓝紫光、绿光、红光和近红外波段建立的一阶导数光谱数据逐步回归模型最优,建立回归模型的决定系数R2为0.974,交叉验证的RMSE为0.131,可为冬小麦LAI估算的方法选择和数据处理提供依据和参考。     

安徽省冬小麦水分盈亏特征及其对产量的影响

利用安徽省1971—2010年的气象资料和冬小麦产量资料,采用水分盈亏指数分析了安徽省冬小麦全生育期和关键期（孕穗至乳熟期）水分盈亏的时空变化特征,以及旱涝对产量的影响。结果表明：冬小麦全生育期和关键期水分盈亏指数基本呈纬向分布,合肥以北水分亏缺明显,江淮南部及其以南地区水分供应基本充足,越往南水分盈余程度越大,总体来看缺水程度关键期大于全生育期;近40年冬小麦水分盈亏指数的时间变化趋势不明显,但年际波动大,旱涝灾害风险增加。干旱主要发生在沿淮淮北地区,涝渍在江淮及其以南地区发生频率较高,典型旱涝年平均减产率分别为4.2%和12.4%;造成冬小麦减产10%的中度旱灾风险北部大于南部,中度涝灾风险南部大于北部。南部涝渍风险和造成的产量损失明显大于北部的干旱,水分偏多的南部地区要尽量减少冬小麦的种植。     

IMPACT OF ENSO ON THE PRECIPITATION OVER CHINA IN WINTER HALF-YEARS

In this paper, the impact of ENSO on the precipitation over China in the winter half-year is investigated diagnostically. The results show that positive precipitation anomalies with statistical significance appear over southern China in El Nio episodes, which are caused by the enhanced warm and humid southwesterlies along the East Asian coast in the lower troposphere. The enhanced southwesterlies transport more water vapor to southern China, and the convergence of water vapor over southern China increases the precipitable water and specific humidity. In La Nia episodes,although atmospheric elements change reversely, they are not statistically significant as those in El Nio periods. The possible physical mechanism of the different impact of ENSO cycle on the precipitation over southern China is investigated by analyzing the intraseasonal oscillations(ISOs) in El Nio and La Nia winter half-years, respectively. By comparing the characteristics of ISOs in El Nio and La Nia, a physical mechanism is proposed to explain the different responses of the precipitation over China to ENSO in the winter half-year. In El Nio episodes, over western North Pacific(WNP) and South China Sea(SCS) the ISOs are inactive and exert little effect on water vapor transport and convergence, inducing positive precipitation anomalies with statistical significance over southern China in El Nio episodes. In La Nia episodes, however, the ISOs are active, which weaken the interannual variation signals of ENSO over WNP and southern China and lead to the insignificance of the interannual signals related to ENSO. Therefore, the different responses of precipitation over China to ENSO in the winter half-year are possibly caused by the difference of intraseasonal oscillations over WNP and SCS between El Nio and La Nia.     

不同鲜重秋茄胚轴形态及其对幼苗生长的影响

为了探讨不同鲜重秋茄胚轴的表型性状和营养成分含量差异, 及其对幼苗生长的影响, 确定浙江省秋茄胚轴质量标准, 提高造林质量, 本研究采集4.0~5.0g、5.0~6.0g、6.0~7.0g、7.0~8.0g、8.0~9.0g、9.0~10.0g共6组不同鲜重的秋茄胚轴, 测定其表型性状、营养成分含量和幼苗生长性状。结果表明, 胚轴长度、横径、顶径随着胚轴鲜重的增加而显著增加。不同鲜重等级胚轴间的氮(N)、磷(P)、钾(K)和有机碳百分含量差异不显著, 但随着秋茄胚轴鲜重增加, 淀粉百分含量显著减小。单根胚轴的营养成分总含量随胚轴鲜重的增加而显著增加。胚轴的C:N、N:P和C:P值在鲜重7.0~8.0g等级时均显著高于其他鲜重等级。幼苗生长高、基径、叶片数及生物量随胚轴鲜重的增加而显著增加, 但在5.0~6.0g、6.0~7.0g和7.0~8.0g等级间幼苗茎干重、叶干重、净生物量和总生物量差异不显著。胚轴表型性状与幼苗生长指标之间的相关性均呈显著水平(P<0.05), 除胚轴P总含量与生长高之间的相关性不显著外, N、K、Na、有机碳、淀粉总含量与幼苗生长指标之间均呈显著正相关关系(P<0.05)。主成分分析和综合评价结果表明鲜重7.0g以上的胚轴优于其他鲜重的胚轴。秋茄幼苗生长高和净生物量与胚轴鲜重的回归分析R²分别为0.978和0.951, P均小于0.01。胚轴鲜重大于5.22g时, 幼苗生长高急剧增加; 鲜重大于8.74g时, 幼苗净生物量增长加快。因此, 秋茄胚轴鲜重越大, 营养物质含量越高, 越有利于幼苗生长。在浙江省的秋茄林种植中, 应优先选择鲜重7.0g以上的胚轴。     

微塑料添加对小麦苗期生长及干物质分配的影响

土壤环境中微塑料污染已成为全球关注的环境问题。关于微塑料对于植物生长的直接影响和由于土壤理化性状改变的间接影响研究已逐步开展,但针对小麦的研究鲜见报道。试验选择两个旱地小麦品种(甘春27和禾尚头)作为研究对象,选取高密度聚乙烯作为微塑料添加,设置3种质量浓度(0、1、4 g·kg^-1)开展盆栽试验,对不同微塑料组合处理下小麦的出苗率、株高、全株生物量和地上/地下干物质分配进行了分析。结果表明：(1)微塑料添加对两个品种出苗率没有影响。(2)禾尚头在添加1 g·kg^-1微塑料时比添加0、4 g·kg^-1时全株生物量分别高46.7%、8.5%,甘春27在添加1 g·kg^-1微塑料时比添加0、4 g·kg^-1时全株生物量分别高28.7%、17.2%;甘春27整体比禾尚头在3种浓度处理下全株生物量分别高24.9%、9.6%、1.5%。(3)不同试验处理条件下,甘春27将更多的干物质分配在地上植株的构建,其在地下(根系)和地上(茎叶)部分的分配比例整体小于禾尚头。整体上,适度微塑料添加可...     

基于面向对象的山东省冬小麦种植面积监测

利用遥感技术,使用eCognition软件的面向对象分类技术,对RAPIDEYE卫星影像进行分类识别,从而快速、准确的监测小麦种植面积,为冬小麦财政补贴提供数据和技术支持。以兖州市为例,行政区面积6.501 9万hm2,小麦监测面积3.1715万hm2,小麦面积监测精度达到了90.5%。     

1990年以来中国小麦农业气象灾害时空变化特征(英文)

Agro-meteorological disasters(AMD) have become more frequent with climate warming. In this study, the temporal and spatial changes in the occurrence frequency of major meteorological disasters on wheat production were firstly explored by analyzing the observed records at national agro-meteorological stations(AMS) of China from 1991 to 2009. Furthermore, impact of climate change on AMD was discussed by comparing the warmer decade(2000–2009) with another decade(1991–2000). It was found that drought was the most frequent disaster during the last two decades, with a highest proportion of 79%. And the frequency of AMD increased significantly with climate change. Specifically, the main disasters occurred more frequently in the reproductive period than in the vegetative period. Besides, the spatial changes in the AMD frequency were characterized by region-specific. For example, the wheat cultivation areas located on the Loess Plateau and the middle-lower reaches of the Yellow River suffered mainly from drought. All these results were strongly linked to climate change in China. Therefore, sound adaptation options should be taken based on the latest changes of AMD under global warming to reduce agricultural damages.     

Impact of the shrinking winter wheat sown area on agricultural water consumption in the Hebei Plain简

This study firstly analyzed the shrinkage of winter wheat and the changes of crop- ping systems in the Hebei Plain from 1998 to 2010 based on the agricultural statistic data of 11 cities and meteorological data, including daily temperature, precipitation, water vapor, wind speed and minimum relative humidity data from 22 meteorological stations, and then calcu- lated the water deficit and irrigation water resources required by different cropping systems, as well as the irrigation water resources conserved as a result of cropping system changes, using crop coefficient method and every ten-day effective precipitation estimation method. The results are as follows. 1） The sown areas of winter wheat in the 11 cities in the Hebei Plain all shrunk during the study period. The shrinkage rate was 16.07% and the total shrinkage area amounted to 49.62×10^4 ha. The shrinkage was most serious in the Bei- jing-Tianjin-Tangshan metropolitan agglomerate, with a shrinkage rate of 47.23%. 2） The precipitation fill rate of winter wheat was only 20%-30%, while those of spring maize and summer maize both exceeded 50%. The irrigation water resources demanded by the winter wheat-summer maize double cropping system ranged from 400 mm to 530 mm, while those demanded by the spring maize single cropping system ranged only from 160 mm to 210 ram. 3） The water resources conserved as a result of the winter wheat sown area shrinkage during the study period were about 15.96×10^8 m^3/a, accounting for 27.85% of those provided for Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei by the first phase of the Mid-Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.     

A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale

One main argument for modeling socio-ecological systems is to advance the understanding of dynamic correlations between various human and environmental factors, including impacts and responses to environmental change. We explore the shift in skier distribution among ski resorts taking into account the behavioral adaptation of individuals due to the impact of climate change on snow conditions. This analysis is performed at a regional scale by means of a coupled gravity and georeferenced agent-based model. Four different scenarios are considered. Two scenarios assume an increase of winter mean temperature of +2°C and +4°C, respectively, taking into account only natural snow conditions. Two additional scenarios add the effect of snowmaking to enhance the natural snow depth and extend the skiing season in the +2°C and +4°C base scenarios. Results show differing vulnerability levels, allowing the classification of ski resorts into three distinct groups: (1) highly vulnerable ski resorts with a strong reduction in visitors attendance for all climate change scenarios, characterized by unfavorable geographical and attractiveness conditions, making it difficult to ensure snow availability in the future; (2) low vulnerability ski resorts, with moderate reduction in season length during a high climate change scenario but no reduction (or even an increase) in a low one, characterized by ski resorts with a medium capacity and attractiveness to ensure enough snow conditions and capture skiers from other ski resorts; and (3) resilient ski resorts, with good conditions to ensure future snow-reliable seasons and outstanding attractiveness, allowing them to offer longer ski seasons than their competitors and potentially attracting skiers from other closed or marginal resorts. Ski resorts included in this last group increase their skier attendance in all climate change scenarios. Although similar studies in the literature foretell a significant reduction of the ski market in the near future, another probable effect outlined in this study is a redefinition of this market due to a redistribution of skiers, from vulnerable ski resorts to more resilient ones.