Evidence for climatic variability and its impact on human development during the Neolithic from Loughmeenaghan,County Sligo,Ireland

High‐resolution pollen and geochemical analyses conducted on a sediment profile from a small lake in County Sligo, Ireland, revealed that human development during the Neolithic was influenced by pronounced climatic oscillations. The primeval woodland around the lake experienced a considerable transformation coinciding with the elm decline at 3810 BC. The subsequent increase in summer temperatures and decrease in precipitation favoured wheat cultivation in the lake's catchment area, which was practised for approximately 140 years. A shift towards pastoral farming took place with the establishment of exceptionally dry conditions between 3650 and 3560 BC, when lake level and influx of allochthonous material were notably low. The onset of cool and wet conditions at the transition from the Early to Middle Neolithic possibly caused the initial decline of human activity in the area. Periods of particularly high precipitation during the Middle and early Late Neolithic contributed to the abandonment of the area by the first farmers. Comparison of the proxy record from the study site with other palynological and archaeological records from Ireland suggests that climatic variability on the decadal to centennial scale represented a primary control on the nature and duration of farming practices during the Neolithic. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新疆吐鲁番胜金店墓地小麦遗存加工处理方式初探

脱粒是谷物加工处理的重要环节之一.本文选择新疆吐鲁番胜金店墓地M9墓葬出土大量保存完好的小麦遗存进行原始脱粒方式分析,并尝试结合现代小麦原始脱粒方式模拟实验,将现代模拟实验结果与古代材料进行对比分析,从而初步探讨新疆吐鲁番地区先民的小麦脱粒方式.本文首先对胜金店墓地M9墓葬出土的小麦遗存进行初步分类,将不同的小麦脱粒产品与副产品(麦秆、花序轴、小穗轴等)进行分析和统计;其次设计并完成现代小麦脱粒模拟实验,包括手搓、徒手摔打、木棍击打等3种相对原始的小麦脱粒方式,统计不同脱粒方式所产生的小麦加工产品与副产品的组合比例;将现代模拟实验所得结果与M9墓葬出土小麦遗存进行进一步对比分析.研究结果表明,在距今约2000多年前,新疆吐鲁番胜金店先民可能使用木棍击打方式对小麦进行脱粒.     

2019/2020年冬季我国暖湿气候特征及成因分析

2019/2020年冬季,我国大部分地区气温显著偏高,降水异常偏多,气候总体表现为“暖湿”的异常特征。异常成因分析表明：2019/2020年东亚冬季风强度较常年同期偏弱,西伯利亚高压异常偏弱,季节内冬季风强度阶段性变化特征显著;北极极涡收缩于极地,强度偏强,AO为异常偏强的正位相,乌拉尔山阻塞高压活动偏弱,东亚槽偏弱,欧亚中高纬以纬向环流为主;西太平洋副热带高压强度偏强、位置偏西偏北,印缅槽阶段性活跃,二者有利于太平洋和印度洋水汽向我国输送。受北半球环流异常的影响,我国冬季出现了“暖湿”的异常特征。进一步对东亚冬季风偏弱的可能原因分析表明：2019年秋冬季赤道中太平洋暖海温发展,2019年10月至2020年1月Ni〖AKn~D〗o3.4指数均大于0.5℃,这种类中部型El Ni〖AKn~D〗o海温异常有利于激发偏强、偏北的西北太平洋反气旋,进而抑制了东亚冬季风的发展和南下;此外,冬季北半球极涡收缩于极地,强度偏强,AO持续异常偏强的正位相,均不利于乌拉尔山阻塞高压的发展,且东亚大槽明显偏弱,共同导致了欧亚中高纬地区以纬向环流为主,东亚冬季风偏弱。     

Two Opposite Extreme Events in Seasonal Mean Winter Rainfall over East China during the Past Three Decades

In this study,the extremes of winter seasonal mean precipitation have been investigated by using daily precipitation data from 91 stations in East China,the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR)monthly reanalysis,and sea surface temperature data from the Hadley Centre for 1979–2007.The largest anomalous rainfall amount was observed in regions south of the Yangtze River.In the most recent three decades,extreme events in the seasonal mean winter precipitation occurred in 1985 and 1997.Because it was influenced mainly by a La Ni a event,the precipitation in 1985 showed a deficit following a stronger winter monsoon.The rainfall amount in 1997 was influenced by El Ni o and was significantly larger than normal with a weaker winter monsoon.Both the circulation anomalies and wave energy dispersions during the winters of 1985 and 1997 differed significantly.In 1985,the North Atlantic Oscillation anomalously excited the Eurasian-Pacific teleconnection and circumglobal teleconnection phenomena.Consequently,Rossby wave energy propagated along the north and south branches of the westerlies,strengthening the East Asian trough along with a stronger winter monsoon,which facilitated the wintertime dry extreme in East China.In1997,however,Rossby wave energy propagated from low latitudes northeastward into the southern part of China,resulting in a weaker winter monsoon and the wettest winter.The results of this study will be helpful for future monitoring and prediction of extreme winter rainfall events in East China.     

Recent trends in winter temperature extremes in eastern China and their relationship with the Arctic Oscillation and ENSO

Interannual variations in the number of winter extreme warm and cold days over eastern China （EC） and their relationship with the Arctic Oscillation （AO） and E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） were investigated using an updated temperature dataset comprising 542 Chinese stations during the period 1961- 2011. Results showed that the number of winter extreme warm （cold） days across EC experienced a significant increase （decrease） around the mid-1980s, which could be attributed to interdecadal variation of the East Asian Winter Monsoon （EAWM）. Probability distribution functions （PDFs） of winter temperature extremes in different phases of the AO and ENSO were estimated based on Generalized Extreme Value Distribution theory. Correlation analysis and the PDF technique consistently demonstrated that interannual variation of winter extreme cold days in the northern part of EC （NEC） is closely linked to the AO, while it is most strongly related to the ENSO in the southern part （SEC）. However, the number of winter extreme warm days across EC has little correlation with both AO and ENSO. Furthermore, results indicated that, whether before or after the mid-1980s shift, a significant connection existed between winter extreme cold days in NEC and the AO. However, a significant connection between winter extreme cold days in SEC and the ENSO was only found after the mid-1980s shift. These results highlight the different roles of the AO and ENSO in influencing winter temperature extremes in different parts of EC and in different periods, thus providing important clues for improving short-term climate prediction for winter temperature extremes.     

Estimation of groundwater use by crop production simulated by DSSAT‐wheat and DSSAT‐maize models in the piedmont region of the North China Plain

Sustainable water use is in serious crisis in the piedmont region of the Taihang Mountains in the North China Plain, owing to rapid groundwater drawdown. Estimating the water requirement for agriculture, the biggest user of groundwater, will be helpful in understanding groundwater decline. Through the use of DSSAT‐3·5 wheat and maize models, we assessed water use in winter wheat and maize, two staple crops in the region, in 1987–2001. Trends between groundwater change and simulated agricultural water use were compared. The results showed that groundwater decline was sensitive to simulated crop water requirement and irrigation requirement. According to regression analysis, 100 mm of water requirement by cultivated land (mainly wheat and maize) resulted in about 0·64 m of groundwater decline. This relationship might be useful in understanding the regional water balance and to help decision‐makers control groundwater decline through controlling crop water use or through long‐distance water transfer. The study demonstrated the usefulness of using the DSSAT model for estimating crop water use and the effectiveness of clarifying the reason for groundwater decline using the simulation results of water use. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

河南省境内淮河南北气候变化的小麦适应度比较

适应度是气候变化下适应性研究的关键环节,本文提出气候变化适应度的概念及其定量评价方法,并对淮河南北的小麦适应度进行比较分析。结果表明,目前河南省境内的南北气候分界线并非淮河干流区,而是由原位置北移约300 km处的最大支流地带,冬小麦的适应度空间变化大致围绕该分界线呈经向分布。淮河分界线以南地域适应度为62.57%,高于以北地域的56.81%,研究结果表明,欲达到河南农业可持续发展,距离完全适应仍有较大空间需要人为调控,且北部相比较南部其调控压力更大。在年际变化上,随着20世纪80年代气候的突变,各地小麦温度适应度骤增,水分适应度骤减,之后随着气候的日趋稳定,各气候要素的适应度不断上升,但在21世纪初上升速度下降,甚至有降低趋势,表明气候变暖的环境对小麦的负面影响日渐突出。     

欧亚大陆冬季雪深的时空演变特征及其影响因子分析

利用美国冰雪资料中心(National Snow and Ice Data Center)提供的前苏联1948~1994年逐日积雪深度资料,定义了冬季雪深增量的概念,探讨了欧亚大陆秋末雪深、冬季雪深、冬季雪深增量的时空演变规律,通过比较分析三者的异常变化特征,揭示了三者之间可能存在的联系。经验正交函数分解(EOF)结果表明:欧亚大陆冬季雪深、冬季雪深增量的第一模态的空间分布特征均为大致以50°N为界的南北反相变化,欧亚大陆北部的积雪深度和冬季雪深增量都呈现出一致性的变化趋势;两者对应的时间序列均反映了显著的年代际变化特征,且年代际转变均发生在20世纪70年代中期前后。第二模态则呈现出欧亚大陆东、西部反相的偶极型空间分布特征。进一步分析表明,欧亚大陆秋末雪深无论从空间分布还是时间演变来看与冬季雪深几乎不存在相关性。欧亚大陆冬季雪深变化主要是冬季雪深增量影响所致,与秋末雪深无关。     

江苏冬夏季人体舒适度指数异常的背景场研究

利用江苏地区37个气象观测站1980—2009年逐日资料,及同时段美国NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及北太平洋海温资料,通过合成和遥相关法,研究了当江苏冬、夏季人体舒适度指数（CIHB）出现异常偏高和偏低时,大气环流与北太平洋海温场的基本特征。结果表明：（1）CIHB偏高年较偏低年,冬季,东亚大槽偏浅,冬季风明显偏弱,尤其是北风分量偏弱最为明显,江苏上空下沉气流偏弱,均不利于冷空气东移南压以及向下入侵;夏季,副热带高压偏西、偏强,南亚高压偏东、偏北、偏强,夏季风明显偏强,尤其是南风分量偏强显著,导致往北的暖湿气流强盛,垂直运动总体偏弱,不利于夏季对流活动的发生。（2）冬季,CIHB偏高年中西太平洋的海温高于偏低年,尤其是在我国东部近海的黑潮区,偏暖幅度最为明显,无论是超前相关还是同期相关,西太平洋海温与冬季CIHB都是以正相关为主,其中暖池区的正相关最为显著。     

中国东部北方地区冬季降雪的时空特征及其与全球异常海温的联系

基于中国东部北方地区279个气象台站1961-2008年的观测资料,以及1°×1°的全球海表温度资料,运用主成分分析、小波分析、相关分析等方法探讨中国东部北方地区冬季降雪的时空特征及同期全球海温与其的相关性。研究发现：中国东部北方区域（以下简称研究区）冬季降雪量存在2-3a、7-8a的高频振荡周期,及一个准16a的年代际尺度的低频振荡周期。在1961-2008年间,研究区域冬季降雪量总体呈现上升趋势,特别是45°N以北的研究区北部区域冬季降雪量在48年问增加显著,而45°N以南的研究区南部区域冬季降雪量变化并不明显。分析发现,位于北大西洋上30°-50°N,10°-40°W海区的海温与研究区域降雪的第一、二特征向量均为显著的正相关,研究区北部冬季降雪量与海温关系密切,南部区域冬季降雪量与全球海温的相关性不明显,海温变暖可能是导致研究区北部降雪显著增加的重要因素。