非平稳条件下北京市最大月降水量频率特征分析

为探究气候变化下极端降水的频率变化特征,基于北京市22个雨量站实测月降水量数据,以时间为协变量构建平稳和非平稳GEV模型,对北京市最大月降水量序列(极值降水序列)进行模拟和频率分析,并采用Bootstrap方法对频率分析结果的不确定性进行评价.结果表明:所有极值降水序列的最优概率分布模型均为非平稳GEV模型,该模型能够...     

北京城市热岛效应对冬夏季降水的影响研究

利用北京地区20个气象观测站最近30年（1975～2004年）冬季（12～2月）、夏季（6～8月）平均气温、降水量和降水日数资料,研究了城市热岛效应的年代际变化及其对降水的影响。结果表明:（1）最近30年来,北京城区与北部山区之间的温度梯度在明显加大,其中,冬季温度梯度的平均增幅为0.6℃/10 a,夏季约为0.2℃/10 a。（2）在北京城区南北两侧,冬季和夏季的降水日数、降水量的相对变化趋势明显不同:相对区域平均而言,在城区及南部近郊区,冬季降水日数和降水量都在明显增加;夏季,城区北侧的降水日数呈加速增长趋势,尽管南部平原郊区的相对降水日数变化不大,但降水量在相对减少。（3）城市热岛效应对不同季节降水分布的影响,可能是城乡温度梯度与盛行风相互作用的结果,就北京地区而言,地形的存在,强化了城区与北部郊区之间的温度梯度:冬季盛行北风气流,在北部郊区,热岛效应强迫产生的边界层下沉运动有可能造成局地降水天气过程相对减少,城区及其南侧则相反;夏季盛行南风气流,随着城市热岛效应的增强, 发生在北部近郊区的弱降水天气过程趋于增多。     

Connectivity of post-fire runoff and sediment from nested hillslopes and watersheds

Wildfire increases the potential connectivity of runoff and sediment throughout watersheds due to greater bare soil, runoff and erosion as compared to pre-fire conditions. This research examines the connectivity of post-fire runoff and sediment from hillslopes (< 1.5 ha; n = 31) and catchments (< 1000 ha; n = 10) within two watersheds (< 1500 ha) burned by the 2012 High Park Fire in northcentral Colorado, USA. Our objectives were to: (1) identify sources and quantify magnitudes of post-fire runoff and erosion at nested hillslopes and watersheds for two rain storms with varied duration, intensity and antecedent precipitation; and (2) assess the factors affecting the magnitude and connectivity of runoff and sediment across spatial scales for these two rain storms. The two summer storms that are the focus of this research occurred during the third summer after burning. The first storm had low intensity rainfall over 11 hours (return interval <1–2 years), whereas the second event had high intensity rainfall over 1 hour (return interval <1–10 years). The lower intensity storm was preceded by high antecedent rainfall and led to low hillslope sediment yields and channel incision at most locations, whereas the high intensity storm led to infiltration-excess overland flow, high sediment yields, in-stream sediment deposition and channel substrate fining. For both storms, hillslope-to-stream sediment delivery ratios and area-normalised cross-sectional channel change increased with the percent of catchment that burned at high severity. For the high intensity storm, hillslope-to-stream sediment delivery ratios decreased with unconfined channel length (%). The findings quantify post-fire connectivity and sediment delivery from hillslopes and streams, and highlight how different types of storms can cause varying magnitues and spatial patterns of sediment transport and deposition from hillslopes through stream channel networks.     

锦州地区逐日降水概率分布特征

利用锦州地区的逐日降水量观测资料对逐日降水量的概率分布进行了统计分析,采用最大似然估计法得到Gamma函数分布的形状参数α和尺度参数β,通过Gamma概率分布模拟观测站点逐日降水的概率分布。结果表明：锦州地区逐日降水频率整体趋势先上升后下降,基本呈对称式分布,降水概率有一定的振荡,个别日会出现远超相邻日期的降水频率,7月21日降水频率最高,在不计微量降水的情况下,最低逐日降水概率有多个日期为0。各季降水频率偏低是造成义县地区干旱的原因之一;北镇夏季平均降水频率最低,但其夏季平均降水量却为锦州地区最高,说明北镇可能易出现较大量级降水或易出现极端降水天气。清明期间降水频率在50%以上、高考期间降水频率在80%以上,符合大众日常对特殊日期降水情况的认知;逐日降水频率可以为公众气象服务提供新的思路。凌海、北镇更容易出现极端降水天气;锦州地区日降水出现小雨天气概率最高,暴雨以上降水概率较低,锦州地区各站极少出现大暴雨以上量级降水,对锦州降水量级预报,尤其是暴雨或大暴雨以上降水量级的预报起到一定的指示作用。     

中国近45年来气候变化的研究

利用１９５１～１９９５年约４００站的月平均气温、降水和１９６１～１９９５年２００余站的最高和最低气温、相对湿度、总云量和低云量、日照时数、蒸发、风速和积雪日数和深度以及０～３．２ｍ共８层土壤温度等资料,对近４５ａ来中国气候变化特征作了一个较全面的分析研究。本文作为第一部分,分析了平均气温、最高最低气温、降水、相对湿度和日照的气候变化规律。其余要素的变化规律以及中国气候变化的可能机制将在第二部分中加以讨论。     

A near‐annual palaeohydrological study based on testate amoebae from a sub‐alpine mire: surface wetness and the role of climate during the instrumental period

We present the first testate amoeba‐based palaeohydrological reconstruction from the Swiss Alps, and the first depth to the water table (DWT) calibration dataset for this region. Compared to existing models, our new calibration dataset performs well (RMSEP = 4.88), despite the length of the water table gradient covered (53 cm). The present‐day topography and vegetation of the study mire Mauntschas suggest that it is partly ombrotrophic (large Sphagnum fuscum hummocks, one of which was the coring site) but mostly under the minerotrophic influence of springs in the mire and runoff from the surrounding area. Ombrotrophic Sphagnum fuscum hummocks developed at the sampling site only during the last 50 years, when testate amoebae indicate a shift towards dry and/or acid conditions. Prior to AD 1950 the water table was much higher, suggesting that the influence of the mineral‐rich water prevented the development of ombrotrophic hummocks. The reconstructed DWT correlated with Pinus cembra pollen accumulation rates, suggesting that testate amoebae living on the mire and P. cembra growing outside of it partly respond to the same factor(s). Finally, temperature trends from the nearby meteorological station paralleled trends in reconstructed DWT. However, contrary to other studies made on raised bogs of northwestern Europe, the highest correlation was observed for winter temperature, despite the fact that testate amoebae would more logically respond to moisture conditions during the growing season. The observed correlation with winter temperature might reflect a control of winter severity on surface moisture during at least the first part of the growing season, through snow melt and soil frost phenomena influencing run‐off. More ecohydrological work on sub‐alpine mires is needed to understand the relationships between climate, testate amoebae and peatland development. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater storage change detection from in situ and GRACE-based estimates in major river basins across India

ABSTRACT

India has been the subject of many recent groundwater studies due to the rapid depletion of groundwater in large parts of the country. However, few if any of these studies have examined groundwater storage conditions in all of India’s river basins individually. Herein we assess groundwater storage changes in all 22 of India’s major river basins using in situ data from 3420 observation locations for the period 2003–2014. One-month and 12-month standardized precipitation index measures (SPI-1 and SPI-12) indicate fluctuations in the long-term pattern. The Ganges and Brahmaputra basins experienced long-term decreasing trends in precipitation in both 1961–2014 and the study period, 2003–2014. Indeterminate or increasing precipitation trends occurred in other basins. Satellite-based and in situ groundwater storage time series exhibited similar patterns, with increases in most of the basins. However, diminishing groundwater storage (at rates of >0.4 km³/year) was revealed in the Ganges-Brahmaputra River Basin based on in situ observations, which is particularly important due to its agricultural productivity.     

The Impact of Mid- and High-Latitude Rossby Wave Activities on the Medium-Range Evolution of the EAP Pattern During the Pre-Rainy Period of South China

Based on the NCEP DOE AMIP II daily reanalysis data (1979{2005), the evolution of the East Asia/Pacific(EAP) teleconnection pattern during the pre-rainy period of South China is studied on the medium-range time scale. It is found that positive and negative EAP patterns share a similar generation process. In the middle and upper troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanating from the northeast Atlantic or Europe propagate toward East Asia along the Eurasian continent waveguide and finally give rise to the three anomaly centers of the EAP pattern over East Asia. Among the three anomaly centers, the western Pacific subtropical center appears the latest. Rossby wave packets propagate from the high latitude anomaly center toward the mid-latitude and the subtropical ones. The enhancement and maintenance of the subtropical anomaly center is closely associated with the subtropical jet waveguide and the incoming Rossby wave packets from the upstream. In the lower troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanate from the subtropical Asia toward East Asia. Positive and negative EAP patterns could not be regarded as "mirrors" to each other with simply re- versed phase. For the positive pattern, the positive height anomaly center around the Scandinavia Peninsula keeps its strength and position during the mature period, and the Rossby wave packets thus propagate persistently toward East Asia, facilitating a longer mature time of the positive pattern. As for the formation of the negative EAP pattern, however, the incoming Rossby wave energy from the upstream contributes to both the enhancement and southeastward movement of the negative anomaly belt from the Yenisei River to the Bering Strait and the positive anomaly center around Mongolia. At the peak time, the two anomlous circulations are evolved into the Northeast Asia and the mid-latitude anomaly centers of the negative pattern, respectively. The energy dispersion of Rossby wave packets is relatively fast due to the predominant zonal circulation in the extratropics, causing a shorter mature period of the negative pattern. During the pre-rainy period of South China, the prevalence of the EAP pattern signiˉcantly affects the rainfall over the region south of the Yangtze River. The positive (negative) EAP pattern tends to causepositive (negative) precipitation anomalies in that region. This is di?erent from the earlier research findingsbased on monthly mean data.     

青藏高原春季土壤湿度异常与我国夏季降水的联系

利用 197-2014年 GLDAS-CLM(Global Land Data Assimilation System-the Community Land Mod-el)地表参量数据集、中国区域逐日观测资料格点化数据集(CN05.1)和ERA-nterim大气环流再分析数据,研究青藏高原5月(春季)土壤湿度的异常变化...